Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Speculation, discoveries, complaints, accusations, praise, and all other Erfworld discussion.

Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Fri Jun 17, 2011 8:51 pm

Sure we can talk up a storm, but who really has the best handle on things? There's only one way to settle it - put your money where your mouth is! Of course, handling actual money would be difficult and in some jurisdictions constitute illegal gambling. So I propose we work in quatloos.

We can have pools, offers of one-on-one wagers, etc. To keep things from escalating uncontrollably and to avoid cutting someone off forever, each participant starts at zero quatloos; each is permitted to go up to 100 quatloos into debt, plus 10 per calendar month since their first bet was placed (start June 30? Get an extra 10 debt limit on July 1). If a bet is due to resolve in the future, you can borrow up to the limit for when it would resolve, not for when you place the bet (so if today we started a pool that resolves in 320 days, you could bet 200 quatloos).

Don't edit your posts frivolously - if a post IS edited, then that opens up disputes and I'd rather not deal with that. You can retract bets by editing, marking them as retracted, but not blanking them. Do not edit a disputed post.

If you offer a bet and new information comes in that makes your outcome seem less likely, anyone taking that bet has to ask before claiming it (example: "I'll take that, if it's still good"). Bets offered and taken with no relevant information since need not wait on confirmation. This is a judgement call by the management, which can be swayed by argument. (See page 8 or 9 for a failure to think about this which put my mind into making this policy in the first place)

Speaking of judgement calls, in the event I call a bet in my favor without a concession and I turn out to have been wrong, I pay out double. In general, don't be in a rush to call bets. It's not like you can spend quatloos anyway.

You may also place bet offers with odds to be determined automatically using this scheme: just name a maximum bet scale and the probability you assign to a proposition, and anyone else can fill in their own probability and maximum bet scale and auto-generate a fair bet.

This post will be edited to maintain the list of open pools and taken bets, and will be updated reasonably promptly.

(Note: the total of bets outstanding does not count bet offers, only agreed-upon bets or entries into pools)
STANDINGS:
0beron is at -10q and has 65q outstanding (10 distant future)
Agarwaen is at 12q
Atomic is at -10q
Balerion is at 5q and has 30q outstanding (30 of which are distant future)
BCCroaker is at -50 q and has 20 q outstanding
Beeskee is at 0q and has 10q outstanding
Bladestorm is at 125q and has 121q outstanding
BLANDCorporatio is at 5q
bpzinn is at 0q and has 65q outstanding
CarniDollMancer is at 0q and has 10q outstanding
Cloudbreaker is at -20 q and has 70 q outstanding (70 of which are medium-long term)
Dalen Mantil is at -10q
DeathTheKid is at 10 q
Drachefly is at 84 q and has 289 q outstanding (50 of which are distant future)
Duke of spoot is at 0q and has 70q outstanding
Effataigus is at -20q and has 30 q outstanding
erwaro is at -10q and has 10q outstanding
EthericSentinel is at 10q
Fabo is at 0q and has 35q outstanding (30 of which are distant future)
five-thirteen is at -10q and has 20q outstanding
Fjord is at 45q
GJC is at 20q
Godzfirefly has -25q and 35q outstanding
GWvsJohn is at 10q and has 120q outstanding
Itoh is at -35q
Kandarin is at -20q and has 20q out
kaed is at -20q and has 40q outstanding
kriss1989 is at 0q and has 10q outstanding
Lamech is at -20q
Lilwik is at 10q and has 40q outstanding (10 distant future)
Lipkin is at 0q and has 65q outstanding
LordBiscuit is at -10q
mantimeforgot is at -1q
MadZuri is at 10q and has 47q outstanding
MarbitChow is at -1 q and has 20q outstanding
mortissimus is at 94q and has 50q outstanding (30 distant future)
Mrtyuh is at -60q and has 203q outstanding (60 of which distant future)
Nakedkali is at -50q
Nnelg is at -18q and has 39q outstanding
No One In Particular is at 0q and has 130 outstanding
Nueamin is at -40q
Oberon is at -30q and has 10q outstanding
saladman is at -10 q
shai-hulud is at -25q and has 35q outstanding
sheepfly is at -10 q
Sir_Dr_D is at -1q
Sixty is at -10 q and has 30q outstanding
SNfinity is at 10q and has 20q outstanding
spriteless is at 10q and has 13q outstanding
Swodaems is at 0 q and has 40q outstanding
Taikei no Yuurei is at 25q and has 140q outstanding (10 distant future)
TheLionTamer is at -5q
ThisIsNotDan is at -5q
Vintermann is at 0 q
Walpurgisborn is at -10q
werebiscuit is at -5q
WhirdCheese is at -3q
Whispri is at 111q and has 107q outstanding
wih is at 0q and has 110q outstanding (30 distant future)
Xarx is at -15q and has 30q outstanding (30 distant future)
YesNinja is at -20q and has 20q outstanding
youngstormlord is at -10q
zilfallon is at -10q
Zippy The Squirrel is at 0q and has 15q outstanding

OPEN POOLS:
POOL 5: Will there be an offer to continue the 'game', in any fashion, from Charlie, at the end of the story?
I put 20q on 'no'
Nnelg put 10q on 'yes'.

CURRENT BETS AND CLOSED POOLS:
Swodaems bet me 10 that the Dwagon encounters on the way to FAQ were an unintended effect caused by the dwagons instinctively scavenging meat. - resolve in my favor if no revelation by the end of book 4.
~~~~
Swodaems bet me 20 that Banhammer was already uncroaked by the time Stanley arrived in Faq and that Wanda was trying to stage an elaborate play to fool Jillian. - resolve in my favor if no revelation by the end of book 4.
----
Swodaems bet Sixty 10 that Queen Bea was behind the death of Saline. Resolve in Sixty's favor if no revelation by the end of Book 4.
~~~~
MarbitChow bets BCCroaker 20 that Parson and Wanda don't become an item by the end of book three.
----
I bet Mrtyuh 5q that Wanda makes Master class before reaching FAQ.
~~~~
0beron (zero) bet Whispri 5q that Wanda will not make Master Class before reaching FAQ.
----
Balerion bet Mrtyuh 30q that this is substantially correct and will be established before the comic ends, including by official statements of the author: "Predicitmancy functions by means of the relative nature of time in Erfworld.For instance, it might allow the predictimancer to actually watch events as they transpire by letting their perception experience time much more rapidly than their body, and then reuniting the two. But I will claim a win if the relative nature of time is involved in any capacity"
~~~~
Whispri bet me 10q that Wanda creates at least one Golem that is powerful enough to count as a Heavy, without the use of Scrolls, prior to Book 1.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Fabo 30q that before Erfworld wraps up, the Arkendish will be used to make a 4- or 5-way link of the 4 Attuned wielders of the Arkentools and perhaps Parson as well. Since this would probably happen very close to the end, there would be no time limit other than the end of the comic.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Fabo 5q that Wanda will seduce Marie before the fall of Faq.
----
0beron (zero) bet me 5q that all 8 casters FAQ had (listed in Book 0 Episode 30) popped as FAQ units, and were not captured or hired. If there is no result by the end of Book 0, then nobody wins.
----
0beron (zero) bet me 5q that Tram will WILLINGLY turn to Parson's side, rather than being captured.
----
0beron (zero) bet five-thirteen 20q that the 4th 'Tool uses Signamancy.
----
0beron (zero) bet sixty 10q that the reason Jillian was called back to court is directly related to Wanda or Olive (not just Haffaton in general). (this bet is not to be called until the end of Book 0) (but it's really looking like a win for sixty)
~~~~
Duke of spoot bet cloudbreaker 30q that Charlie is offering money for Archons alive because he has stopped spawning them.
~~~~
Duke of spoot bet cloudbreaker 40q that when an attack is made on Gobwin's Knob, it will be underground, and Charlie will have something to do with it (like giving info to somebody else).
~~~~
Whispri bet me 10q that Wanda poses as a different type of Caster while serving at Faq.
~~~~
I bet whispri my 50q to his 2q that Wanda doesn't pose as another type of caster at any point while at FAQ. This is without regard to success or failure. In no case does a joke count. Attempting to fool any of the casters, warlords, or Banhammer even for a moment counts; for others, trying for, say, a minute. (I include this exception since fooling regular soldiers is much easier and has many fewer consequences and would not be generally the same sort of endeavor)
~~~~
SNfinity bet 0beron and me 10q each (at even odds) that the fourth Arkentool attunes to Sizemore.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet kriss1989 10q that Caesar will become Ruler of Transylvito before the end of Book 3.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Nnelg bet 10q that Charlie played a significant role in Haffaton’s downfall and that in turn led to the Hippiemancers getting in bed with the Thinkamancers, so to speak.
~~~~
Nnelg bet me 3q that Jillian's heir will be female.
~~~~
Sixty bet Whispri 10q that Jillian's yellow dwagon gets converted by Stanley when he attacks. If it dies before then or something else happens to it, Whispri wins.
~~~~
(Oh)beron bets zeroberon 10q that Jojo was not a part of the Kingworld (*hurk! hawk! pa-ting!*) spell.
~~~~
Nnelg bet effataigus 20q that Charlie was behind neither Saline IV's death nor GK's recent lack of gobwins - but if one but not the other, bet is off. (Effectively, two separate bets for 10q)
~~~~
Whispri bet bladestorm and me 1q each that Wanda will become Chief Caster of a Side other than Gobwin Knob during Book Zero.
~~~~
Beeskee bet Whispri 10q that the first time Parson kills a person other than Clonely, he throws up.
~~~~
erwaro bet wih 5 q that, before the beginning of Gobwin Knob's next turn, we will know definitively whether or not there are living Hobgobwins in Spacerock.
~~~~
bladestorm bet his 50q to effataigus' 10q that the Arkentools are shown not to be tied to a single discipline by the end of book 3.
~~~~
I bet Shai-hulud 10q that within one full turn (of the food fight), Stanley is captured.
~~~~
bladestorm bet 20q to mortissimus' 5 that Charlie wanted Stanley to change the capital.
~~~~
Erwaro's 5 to Lipkin's 10, that Parson is either a Findamancer or a Weirdomancer. If he doesn't have a discipline, bet is off.
~~~~
Kaed bet Takei no Yuurei 30q that reason Charlie's Capital is able to naturally pop Archons at 1/turn is a result of high level Carnymancy (possibly through the Dish, but not necessarily BECAUSE of it) employed on his city.
~~~~
Kaed be Takei no Yuurei 10q that the reason Charlie only pops archons is because the price for this rigged city production is he CAN'T produce anything else now.
~~~~
YesNinja bet GWvsJohn 20q that Charlie will be shown to be from Stupidworld by the end of Book 3 (details on page 29)
~~~~
No One In Particular bet Lilwik, 0beron, and Taikei no Yuurei 10, and me, xarx, wih, and mortissimus 30, that Parson is a Date-a-mancer.
~~~~
wih bet Taikei no Yuurei 20q that if Parson has a specific Discipline, it's Signamancy.
~~~~
Lipkin's 5q to bladestorm's 10q that when Jillian's heir pops, it's a caster.
~~~~
wih bet mortissimus 5q and Taikei no Yuurei 10q on each of the following propositions:
- during Book 3, there will be an attempt to bring a caster into an involuntary link
- this link will be initiated by Charlie/the Arkendish
- the target of this link will be Parson
~~~~
bpzinn's 15q to Lilwik's 10q that there will be a nonstandard linkup (anything other than two casters each using one discipline with the dish or a thinkamancer between them) before book 4.
bpzinn bet GWvsJohn 50q that it is possible for a participants in a trimancer link to contribute more than one caster discipline (see page 32 for details. Type 1 bet)
~~~~
Lipkin bet bladestorm 20q that it will become Parson's goal to make Caesar ruler of Transylvito.
~~~~
Lipkin bet bladestorm 10q that Caesar will be ruler of Transylvito by the end of Book 3.
~~~~
My 50q to Zippy the squirrel's 15q that a large number of high level thinkamancers are not in themselves enough to link more than 3 casters.
~~~~
wih bet whispri 20q that Stanley is the perspective of Part 3 of Book 0.
~~~~
Lilwik bet whispri 10q that Misty is the focus of Episode 82 of Book 0.
~~~~
MadZuri bet Lipkin, Whispri, and me 10q each that Charlie has golems that mimic archons.
~~~~
spriteless bet bladestorm 10q that within 10 pages (either side) of Sizemore making Master Class Dirtomancer he will turn away from whatever side Parson is on.
~~~~
Shai_hulud bet Godzfirefly 25q that Dove was at least originally planning to con Homekey.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Taikei no Yuurei 10q that Ashna will be summoned to Erfworld, and she and a fitter Parson will become an item.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet wih and Taikei no Yuurei 20q each that DigDoug will build a lightning trap at the capital of Charlescomm.
~~~~
MadZuri's 17q to Spriteless's 3q that Dove did not betray DigDoug's side (in part 1).
~~~~
GWvsJohn bet Lilwik 10q, Mrtyuh 15q, and Godzfirefly 25q that Bucky is the reason Creen knows about the cooking of the books.
~~~~
Godzfirefly bet Mrtyuh 10q that the main character of the next Kickstarter story will be a caster, rather than a warlord, non-caster ruler, or other non-caster.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet me 20q that Queen Jillian will use the Western Giants to attack Transylvito before the end of Book 3.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet me 20q that NuFaq will be destroyed by Charlie, utilizing the Western Giants in part or whole, before the end of Book 4.
~~~~
Whispri bet Mrtyuh 8q that if there was, in fact, a traitor (in DigDoug pt 1), Bucky was that traitor.
Kandarin bet Whispri 20q that "Healomancy, like Luckamancy, is not free and borrows numbers from the universe that someone must pay. Erfworld's perpetual state of endless war and Erfworld's ability to heal and clean every living being at dawn are intrinsically linked, and if Parson ever finds a way to stop the former condition, the latter will end as well and Erfworlders will begin to age, sicken and die like Stupidworlders." is substantially correct.
~~~~
Mortissimus and Lipkin put up 10q each to CarniDollMancer's 5 each that Forecastle will not get any Seafarer special during the story of Duke Forecastle, pt 1.


~~~~~~~~~~~ RESOLVED BETS AND POOLS ~~~~~~~~~~~
Pool #1: predict when, in terms of updates, Parson exits the Magic Kingdom. Bets will be taken until comic 65 or text update 52 is up, whichever comes first. Manner of exit and destination are not subjects of the pool.
I put ten quatloos on his exiting during comic 66.
DeathTheKid put 10 on comic 68.
DeathTheKid won.
----
BCCroaker bet me 50 q that Rob doesn't get to 15,000 words for IP(TSF) by the end of November (2011), declared update time. Bet is off if comic-style updates resume during November.
I won
----
vintermann has bet me 10q that once Goodminton falls, Wanda will not in fact be captured by an opposing side, but escape through the portal in the dungeon to become a barbarian in the Magic Kingdom (temporarily, obviously).
I won.
----
Whispri bet me 10q that Jillian pops in Wanda's personal space.
I won
~~~~
Pool #2: Predict the update in which the tower of Spacerock is destroyed by siege creatures and/or equipment. Updates after 100 and 'never' will not be accepted as unique entries, only as '101+'. Nearest bettor wins, in case it lies unequally between bets; if equally between them, the pot is split.
I put 10 quatloos on comic 81, 2 on 101+.
Sixty has 10 quatloos on 101+.
Agarwaen has 10 on update 68.
Note: So, Agarwaen wins with 74 or less (update 74 was it - right on the border!)
Agarwaen won.
~~~~
Pool #4: "the next type of caster to whom we'll be introduced. We would have to be given a name and disipline. They would have to actually appear in the scene, not merely be mentioned. It has to be a caster type which we have not before met. That would make the options: Findamancer, Mathamancer, Weirdomancer, Changemancer, Signamancer, Date-a-mancer, Shockamancer or Rhyme-o-mancer."
Mrtyuh put 10 on signamancer
I put 10 on date-a-mancer
Whispri put 10 on weirdomancer
Mrtyuh won (volume 0, episode 30)
~~~~
Pool #3, take 2: first update during which Wanda has Olive as her Chief Caster. Nearest gets it, ties split proportionally to bet.
I put 10q on 27.
Mrtyuh put 10q on 65.
(we found out for sure during update 33 that this condition had already been fulfilled since update 28)
~~~~
0beron bet SNfinity 10q that the "figure" seen in the tower by Jillian is in fact Charlie.
SNfinity won.
~~~~
Whispri bet me 3q that Jillian will fail to take the City by storm. (The city being the one with the mannequin, where they ate the poisoned rations)
I won.
~~~~
Cloudbreaker bet me 10q that Jillian pops out Bart's eye with a salad fork before the end of Book 0. She didn't.
~~~~
Kandarin bet Vintermann 10q that the outcome of the air battle over Spacerock will hinge on the actions of Don's personal bat. Vintermann won.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Oberon (Oh) 10q that un-Tommy will decay until he ceases to exist (as opposed to being destroyed in combat or disbanded,) and this process will be complete before Wanda leaves Goodminton's service.
Mrtyuh conceded, but it's still possible, however unlikely, we find out that Wanda went down fighting.
~~~~
Bladestorm bet 20q to Whispri's 10q that there will be no combat attacks against any of GK's forces (wherever they may be, MK, GK, SR, wherever) during pages 94 through 99 of Book 2. Whispri won.
~~~~
Nueamin bets mortissimus 50q that Parson enters the portal (to Jetstone) before December.
Mortissimus won.
~~~~
Bladestorm ran a pool on the next sort of caster to appear, and the result was:
Whispri +20
effataigus -5
bladestorm -12
drachefly -2
Nnelg -1
~~~~
POOL 6: Same as pool 1, but with a later closing date: Update during which Parson's head enters the portal. 10q exactly, pick one update that hasn't been taken yet. Broken up into rounds, based on when we got new information. Round 1 started after update 95, and will end upon the next MK update.
Round 1
Nnelg: 101
Neuamin: 100
bladestorm: 99 WON
Drachefly: 98
mortissimus: 97
SNfinity: 96
Round 2:
bladestorm: 99 WON
Drachefly: 98
mortissimus: 97
Round 3:
Nnelg: 100
bladestorm: 99 WON
mortissimus: 98
~~~~
Agarwaen bet me 10 that Parson will not enter the spacerock portal before the fall of the city.
I won.
~~~~
DeathTheKid has bet me 10 that Parson will level before leaving the MK this time.
I won.
----
BLANDCorporatio bet Mrtyuh 5q that before leaving the MK, Parson will level. Twice.
Mrtyuh won.
~~~~
Nakedkali bet Mortissimus and me 20q each, and Nnelg 2q, and Whispri 3q, and Effataigus 5q, that Parson does not enter the Spacerock portal in 2012.
We won.
----
Nnelg bet Whispri 5q that Parson does not get to meet any non-GK warlords in person by the end of Book 2. He did.
~~~~
Youngstormlord bet Bladestorm 10q that Wanda will either shoot or stab Olive in the back in the next update, while Olive is preoccupied with Jill. She didn't.
~~~~
I bet Bladestorm 5q that Sylvia croaks this battle (Spacerock)
She parched in update 102.
~~~~
Atomic bet me 10q that in the next update of IPtSF (page 64), King Banhammer tries to stop Jillian from harming/engaging Olive yet again. Only this time, Banhammer will be told off by Marie when she Predicts the results of the current skirmish.
Neither occurred.
~~~~
The Croakamantic Betting Pool (in the thread of the same name), round 1, yielded:
Bladestorm put in 3 and won the pot, for a net of 7.
I lost 3
WhirdCheese lost 3
Sir_Dr_D lost 1
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet me 5q that Parson and Sylvia will hook up at least once before the End of Book 4.
She was dusted in book 2.
~~~~
MarbitChow bet 1q to Nnelg's 4q that Decrypted Slately croaks Clone Slately. (we didn't yet see Slately's body destroyed, but this does seem an unlikely combination)
Clonely was tossed into a red dwagon's mouth.
~~~~
Oberon (Oh) wagers Bladestorm 20 quatloos that Jetstone does not fall this day. (see original post for details on definition of 'day'). It did.
~~~~
bladestorm bet me 10q that Charlie is a carnymancer. He was.
~~~~
sheepfly bet me 10q that Ace defects from Jetstone voluntarily (is not turned by magic or decryption) by the end of book 2. He croaked instead.
~~~~
My 50q to Bladestorm's 5q that Charlie isn't actually secretly Olive. Based on vol 0 ep 66, we agreed that they aren't.
~~~~
mantimeforgot's 1q to my 1000q that of the four prediction paragraphs at the top of his post at the bottom of page 14, three are more or less true. Of the four, one was that parson wouldn't make it to Jetstone (he did) and another was that Sylvia would be the last unit standing a Jetstone (she wasn't). So, there we go.
----
five-thirteen bet me 10 q that Charlie has veiled Archons in Spacerock airspace. He conceded a last June and I thought I'd let it go a bit longer, but by now I'm convinced too.
~~~~
erwaro bet Whispri 10q that no casters are involved in stopping the fire at Spacerock. Details on page 23. As it turned out, Sizemore put it out on book 2 page 111. Like a boss.
~~~~
Sixty has bet saladman 10 that Sizemore will enter spacerock via the portal soon after Parson. Shall we call it 'this turn', to put an end date on it? (yes) He did on book 2 page 111.
~~~~
Bland bet effataigus 10 that Wanda will express 'decrypt Jack' thoughts before the close of Book 2. She did on page 111.
~~~~
LordBiscuit bet Fjord 10q that no corpses created in the battle for Spacerock are moved through the portal to be decrypted on the other side. Bet ends when the corpses are decrypted or when book 2 ends, whichever comes first. (we saw decrypted in the MK on book 2 page 113)
~~~~
GJC's 5q to my 10 that Parson's plan involves using Decrypted troops to directly attack MK casters, with the aim of gaining a degree of control over the MK. (It sure looked like that starting book 2 page 113. Could be reversed depending on outcome) (As of the end of book 2, we took this to be so close to splitting the difference it ended as a push)
~~~~
bladestorm bet whispri 5q that Artemis doesn't get decrypted by Wanda. She appears to have been.
~~~~
Mortissimus bet Walpurgisborn 10q that no live (not decrypted or uncroaked) Jack will appear before the end of book 2. Mortissimus won.
~~~~
bladestorm bet fjord 30q that we'll see in book 2 that the hammer can only levitate, not fly (see page 25). Fjord won.
----
Sixty has bet me 10 that Parson will prevent himself from having access to the bracer during Book 2. I won.
----
effataigus bet Mrtyuh 10q that Jillian will come back to JS (or an engagement involving Tram outside of JS) before the end of book 2. Mrtyuh won.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet me 5q that Tramennis will be captured by Gobwin Knob by the End of Book 2. I won.
~~~~
Nnelg bet Balerion 5q that someone important (ex. Parson, Wanda, Jack, etc.) defects from GK by the end of Book 2. Balerion won.
~~~~
Itoh bets Whispri 20q that Charlescomm or a side allied (at least informally) with Charlescomm gains possession of the Arkenpliers by the end of book 2 (not counting a CC alliance with GK), and 15q for the same deal with the Arkenhammer. Whispri won both.
~~~~
I bet Bladestorm 5q that if Jack does croak this turn, he is eventually decrypted (and if he's not croaked this turn, bet is off) (The turn in Book 2). I won.
~~~~
Mortissimus bet Bladestorm 5Q that if Jack is dead he will be decrypted by the end of book 2. Void if he did not die on page 105 due to some mancy or trickery. Mortissimus won.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Whispri 10q that Cubbins will become the first decrypted caster. Whispri won.
~~~~
I bet ThisIsNotDan 10q to his 5q that the person who returned from the MK with Parson and appears to be Jack is not actually Bowie, the changeamancer from Unaroyal. Since nothing was mentioned after Jack's decryption and then the book ended, I'm going to go out on a limb and say I won this one.
~~~~
I bet Fjord, Lilwik, Takei no Yuurei, Neuamin, and EthericSentinel 10q each that Banhammer did not disband Jillian's mount at the end of Book 0, ep. 69. He totally did.
~~~~
Zilfallon bet Neuamin 10q on Banhammer attempting to disband Jillian and failing to do so (not that he already has). He didn't, at least not during episodes 69 or 70, and as no time was specified as the end of that, I'll take that to mean 'this scene'.
~~~~
TheLionTamer bet Takei no Yuurei 5q that Jack uses Foolamancy to somehow interfere with the disbanding order in Book 0 episode 69, making Banhammer either disband the wrong unit, or none at all. That's not what happened
~~~~
Nnelg bets 10q to Bladestorm's 5q that Jillian croaks Olive Branch after the latter becomes Overlady of Haffaton. She totally did, after she totally did.
~~~~
Kaed bet mortissimus 10q that Charlie somehow wrangles a magical contract with Faq as part of the trial of Olive Branch, that stipulates they forget everything they know about his past afterwards. She died before any such contract was made.
~~~~
GLC's 20 to Shai_hulud's 10 that, in the course of the trial it is not proven that:
1: Olive was not responsible for the attack on Goodminton (that is to say, she didn't give the orders herself)
2: That Olive was under the flowers' influence when deciding to imprison her Overlady or attack Charlie.
Olive is dead, which I consider likely enough to moot the trial that I'm calling this one.
~~~~
Dalen Mantil bet Whispri 10q that the broom Jillian (ordered) shot down in episode 65 landed in the Garden and set it ablaze, and Olive meets her end trying and failing to put it out. Jillian croaks Olive (indirectly), satisfying Fate, and everything else (Faq, the Jillian-Loj relationship, the present non-existence of the flowers) is ready and waiting for Stanley to swoop in with his dwagons. (... or... something else)
~~~~
WhirdCheese bet effataigus 13q that the scroll brings whomever it is used on to Charlescomm's capital. If the scroll is not used by the end of the second book nobody wins.... and it wasn't, so nobody won.
~~~~
Xarx's 20q to Bladestorm's 10q that Olive croaks by the end of Book 0. She did.
~~~~
Xarx bet GWvsJohn and MadZuri 10 each that the troops outside the El-Efbaum are veils cast by archons. At least some of them weren't (which leaves little room for suspicion that others were).
~~~~
Kaed bet Mortissimus 10q that Crapsack set the garden ablaze. He didn't.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Nnelg 5q that King County's honor duel was against Haffaton, and it will play an important role in Haffaton's downfall. Nope.
~~~~
Takei no Yuurei bet Xarx 5q that the broom started the fire. It didn't.
~~~~
Mortissimus bet Xarx 5q that the army outside the gates of El-Efbaum is (former?) natural allies of Haffaton. At least some of them were (which leaves little room for suspicion that others weren't)
~~~~
Xarx bet mortissiums 5q that the thinkagram in Epilogue 10 wasn't really from Maggie. It was.
~~~~
GJC bet Lamech 10q that, by the end of Jetstone's turn, Tramennis will be ruler of Jetstone. A Slately clone depopping at the end of turn counts. He was.
~~~~
Lamech bet SNfinity 10q that Ansom became king of Jetstone when real Slately died. See page 11 for exact terms. Anyway, he didn't.
~~~~
Shai-hulud bet mortissimus 10q that Wanda has seen what Charlie really looks like, if only briefly, by the end of the current (Jillian/FAQ) storyline of Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower). She does not need to meet him. (but no such thing occurred)
~~~~
Oberon (Oh) wagers Bladestorm 20 quatloos that Parson and at least but not limited to Wanda do pass through the Jetstone portal (from the MK, not to it - this was after they'd come through). This does not have to be together, but it will be this day. (Wanda passed through the Spacerock portal on page 111, but it was no longer the Jetstone portal)
~~~~
Pool of what Parson's genius plan is. Each entry is 5q. Details on page 26.
Bladestorm: Link Ace to Sizemore and turn the entire city into a large golem unit.
Drachefly: Sizemore gathers the dust of the dusted for re-decryption.
Shai_hulud: cages with traps under/around them.
Fjord: A tri-link Parson/Maggie/Sizemore for a giant Signamancer/Dirtamancer casting on the city
*winner?* Drachefly: Something that is not a tri-link.
Werebiscuit: Something that involves the bracer but not the scroll (did not directly involve the bracer - conceded)
~~~~
Takei no Yuurei bet Mortissimus 5q that some form of mindwipe happens before the end of book 0. There totally was.
~~~~
Takei no Yuurei bet Bladestorm 10q that no more than 2 units die in MK by the end of the turn. No units died in MK.
~~~~
Kandarin bet Bladestorm 10q that sometime in Book 0, Wanda will try to uncroak a caster and find out the hard way that they can no longer cast. Unfortunately, this is no longer readily resolvable. Wanda uncroaked Olive offscreen and we never saw her reaction. However, given that even Jillian knew that Olive couldn't cast - didn't even ask whether she might - I'm going to go with Bladestorm on this one.
~~~~
Mrtyuh bet Whispri 20q that Delkey will break alliance with Homekey during the battle (fake archon attack during DigDoug). They waited until afterwards.
~~~~
mortissimus bet Godzfirefly 10q that Charlescom took the City of Homekey while Digdoug was unconscious. Null if we don't find out what happened before the end of Digdoug pt 1. We didn't find this out.
~~~~
Spriteless bet Lilwik 10q that Prince Creen will be struck by lightning by the end of DigDoug part 1. He was.
~~~~
I bet 10q to Lilwik's 16q (auto-odds) that Doug will end up in the sack with Dove Barstool (by the end of Digdoug part 1, just in case he shows up later). They didn't.
~~~~
Whispri bet mortissimus 4q that Dove Barstool's plan in Digdoug part 1 will work. It didn't.
~~~~
Gozfirefly bet bladestorm 25q that Posbrake would survive to the end of the first DigDoug. He appears not to have.
~~~~
POOL: Location of first panel of book 3. 20q to buy in. At most one guess per day. Most specific correct answer wins.
YesNinja: the FAQ war room
I take the idea that It's in the field.
Bladestorm claimed the thinkamancers' temple. He won!
Mrtyuh claims a Jetstone camp
~~~~
Cloudbreaker bet DeathTheKid 10 that "decrypted casters have no juice, and can therefore only cast spells from scrolls." Page 1 of book 3, Ace participates in 2 links without the aid of scrolls.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby DeathTheKid » Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:16 pm

I like this idea, and I put 10 quatloos on Parson exiting during comic 68.


And while this is not part of the bet, I still feel like saying why I'm betting farther ahead then you. TGMTTA still have done nothing, so I think they will play some part before Parson leaves (taking 2 updates), and one update before that of Parson interrogating Janis and Marie, and then the last update will be to wrap things up then step through the portal (though he won't actually appear in Jetstone until update 69).
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby cloudbreaker » Thu Jun 30, 2011 1:04 am

I'll bet 10 quatloos that decrypted casters have no juice, and can therefore only cast spells from scrolls.
Bored? Read The Adventured of Melissa Ray. An Erfworld fanfic. comment here

Or A Tale From Traz. (Now complete!). comment here.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby DeathTheKid » Thu Jun 30, 2011 6:45 pm

I'm willing to bet 30 quataloos that casters still have juice/can cast. Archons are basically flying mini casters and they seem to be able to cast just fine.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Sixty » Fri Jul 01, 2011 6:32 am

I'll put 10 quatloos on the tower falling being 101+

I'll also put 10 quatloos on Sizemore following Parson into Spacerock at this point despite not wanting to earlier.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Saladman » Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:18 am

Sixty wrote:I'll also put 10 quatloos on Sizemore following Parson into Spacerock at this point despite not wanting to earlier.


I'll take the other side of this. 10 quatloos he doesn't go through. (Though the walk back through Portal Park ought to be interesting for him.)
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Sixty » Fri Jul 01, 2011 3:06 pm

Yeah, I'm fine with the bet being that Sizemore has to do it this turn.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Agarwaen » Tue Jul 05, 2011 2:13 am

10 quats on the tower falling on 68

10 quats on Parson not entering the portal to SpaceRock before the city (not the side) falls.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Tue Jul 05, 2011 9:44 am

I'll take that.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby BLANDCorporatio » Tue Jul 05, 2011 4:27 pm

10 quatloos on Wanda getting "decrypt Jack" ideas again.
The whole point of this is lost if you keep it a secret.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby effataigus » Tue Jul 05, 2011 4:52 pm

BLANDCorporatio wrote:10 quatloos on Wanda getting "decrypt Jack" ideas again.


Unwinnable! I'll take it for her not expressing such ideas again during the remainder of book 2, though.

Ten more on Jillian coming back to JS (or an engagement involving Tram outside of JS) before the end of book 2.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby BLANDCorporatio » Tue Jul 05, 2011 4:56 pm

effataigus wrote:
BLANDCorporatio wrote:10 quatloos on Wanda getting "decrypt Jack" ideas again.


Unwinnable!


Oops, right you are, should have specified a time frame. Make it, 10 quatloos on Wanda expressing "decrypt Jack" ideas again before the current book closes.
The whole point of this is lost if you keep it a secret.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby effataigus » Wed Jul 06, 2011 9:39 am

Well then, accepted!
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Thu Jul 07, 2011 3:46 pm

Unless Parson somehow busts his way through the portal next comic, it looks like I'm the first person to lose a bet. If he does, it's a push.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby DeathTheKid » Fri Jul 08, 2011 7:05 am

Time to do something random. I'm betting 10 quatloos that Parson will level before leaving the Magic Kingdom.

He was considered a "Special" Unit way back in book one, and Maggie called his brain a weapon. We also know that Casters don't need to fight to level, but simply casting can give them some experience (Sizemore leveled from making traps). So I'm guessing either through fighting his way out of the kingdom or debating with Thinkamancers/being enlightened about more stuff in Erfworld (he may level through plot related things for all we know), Parson will level.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Swodaems » Fri Jul 08, 2011 1:23 pm

BLANDCorporatio wrote:
effataigus wrote:
BLANDCorporatio wrote:10 quatloos on Wanda getting "decrypt Jack" ideas again.


Unwinnable!


Oops, right you are, should have specified a time frame. Make it, 10 quatloos on Wanda expressing "decrypt Jack" ideas again before the current book closes.

15 on it not being possible due to the state of his corpse.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Sat Jul 09, 2011 6:56 am

DeathTheKid wrote:Time to do something random. I'm betting 10 quatloos that Parson will level before leaving the Magic Kingdom.


At even odds? I'll take that.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby BLANDCorporatio » Sat Jul 09, 2011 7:09 am

drachefly wrote:
DeathTheKid wrote:Time to do something random. I'm betting 10 quatloos that Parson will level before leaving the Magic Kingdom.


At even odds? I'll take that.


Cwap, why not. I'll put 5 quatloos that before leaving the MK, Parson will level. Twice.
The whole point of this is lost if you keep it a secret.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Lamech » Sat Jul 09, 2011 11:46 am

Him some bets 10 quatloos

Before the end of book two Maggie's suggestion on Stanley will break, and the backlash will harm someone. (Either her or Stanley.)

Actually thats the only one I got right now...
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby bob the 6th » Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:50 pm

bet 100 quat that the next book is a fight with charlie. ten that parson gets banished before the end of the battle, and we are left with an open ending.
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