Book 2 – Page 65

[Tachyon]

Okay. You are very focused on your own interpretation of the facts as they were presented to you (read: my "formula"), for which I will admit the presentation of on my part was done a little sloppily, but with apparently clear enough intent that it didn't escape another observer's attention. I'll excuse that you care so much about details I've long since discarded, it just means you're not being generous enough in your interpretation of what I wrote to read what I was trying to say.

I clarified the intent behind my words numerous times, admitted there was a flaw in my communications by the act of this clarification, even fell back on someone else's very generous (proper) interpretation of my intent which I attempted to recover focus for the thread by, and so on.

I don't know what you want from me, but from where I stand you seem to be obsessed with being right. I sometimes forget that, although I'm the sort of person who can easily reevaluate his priorities and strategies as old ones prove ineffective or flawed, not everyone gives a used fig and would prefer to argue about cupcakes instead of a more massive and delicious dessert. Your familiarity with the foundations of logic notwithstanding, I prefer to deal in facts, not theory. I'm a creative writer and intuitive gamer before I'm a well-read logician - but because of my tendencies, I do recognize logical inconsistencies when I have the opportunity to see them, and I work around them in my own way when I have perceived them.

The logical inconsistency I'm now trying to work around is the reasoning behind your attempt to hammer home a tangential (but valid) point. As I am focused on the primary objective of "discussing the comic", I really don't care to spend the time making every factual puzzle piece fit in its proper theoretical hole just to satisfy a theorem that is ancillary to making the jigsaw puzzle look like a picture. Such an attempt is ultimately lost on many of the discussion's participants regardless.

My method of dealing with this logical inconsistency is to move on and get back to the point of the thread - discussion of the comic.

Because Ansom was GK's Chief Warlord; he provides a part of an insane leadership bonus to GK's units when he's in the hex alongside Wanda and the 'pliers. It was a decapitation plan, similar to when Parson first tried to kill Ansom in Book 1. Ultimately, Jillian cooperated in her own way, granted it was not acceptable to Charlie, but as far as we can see, they haven't broken their "alliance" over it. Vanna, as far as we know, is still in Jillian's employ, and on Charlie's paycheck.

*facepalm* No. Charlie wanted Ansom dead because he was a distraction to Jillian. Jillian loved Ansom. Charlie invested a lot of money in Jillian, and had a lot riding on her in his current plan. Ansom was a major distraction to Jillian. His existence was preventing Charlie from being able to manipulate her. She was acting out of love, which is completely irrational. Therefore, Charlie was acting to remove the object of her love. He was banking on being able to get him before Jillian found out. If he did that, then Jillian would only have one person left to love. She'd have a new target to hate, but that's a different story. Charlie can use hate. Hate is predictable. Love isn't.

So all of those story plots where the hero is moved to action because his one true love is captured don't contain the villain banking on hostile retaliation as a result of love? Sounds like you need to rewatch The Princess Bride. Love and the most basic actions it inspires are predictable, but it's the hidden motives which the "hero" gains and acts on because of the circumstances of that love which are not.

The fact remains that Charlie's the one who told her about Ansom still being "alive" in the first place.
I hate having to re-link this again, but note the last few lines: http://www.erfworld.com/summer-update-2 ... aurelB.jpg

If it were only in Charlie's best interest to have Ansom croaked, he could have given Jillian tactical advice to position herself out of view of the act, without informing her of his intent directly. Charlie is more than capable of handing out dossiers on wild geese to chase after, and he hasn't done so here, in panel 7: http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/ ... -08-19.jpg

Charlie intentionally allowed the person it would upset most to be in a position to observe the croaking of Ansom (intentionally, because he could have done otherwise and did not), on the assumption that she would still carry out the battle plan. Charlie's powers of anticipation here are remarkably low, if this scenario is the case - but the fact remains he had no contingency plans for dealing with her dissent despite her proximity to a cause for dissent. He didn't know whether he could count on Jillian to allow the croaking to take place, but he left her in a position to hinder it knowingly. Recall that Charlie's ultimate plan in dealing with Jillian is to croak Stanley, and probably Wanda too. With Jillian's air support gone, Jetstone has nothing to combat Wanda but the troops they have in the garrison for reserves (primarily archers and casters); Charlie needed Jillian to stay and, knowing that she's emotionally unstable, he would have had every expectation that having Ansom croaked would've not been conducive to that.

Therefore, all Ansom's existence was preventing, as far as Charlie knew at the time, was the success of a cooperative effort to protect Jetstone on the ground (we seem to keep forgetting Ansom was still the Chief Warlord for GK and granted a very high leadership bonus even before being decrypted - we also don't know if he retained his Royalty unit bonuses, as we don't know what decryption allows for in retention of stats, but I'd personally bet that he did), and Charlie apparently didn't know (or, equally possible, he didn't highly value the fact) that there was more to Ansom than just being an enemy Chief Warlord at the time he ordered the croaking done.

No, he was aiming to take out GK's leadership at first (and as many ground forces as Haggar could defeat), then take on Wanda's air forces; destroying Jillian's motivation for helping him would've been contradictory to this plan. Moreover, if Charlie knew she was there for Ansom, it would've been equally unrealistic for him to know she was there for Wanda and still expect the two to fight each other (he does know that she was there for Wanda, after the fact - the second page I linked makes that more than evident).

It is worth noting that Charlie's strategies turned out to be contradictory, and that he did not make every effort to reconcile this flaw before acting. He's more dangerous than Ansom was at the end of Book 1, in a way.

[Kreistor]

The logical inconsistency I'm now trying to work around is the reasoning behind your attempt to hammer home a tangential (but valid) point.

Because it seemed to me that everyone that kept responding were expecting a response, either in agreement or otherwise.

[effataigus]

Wall of text

I'm inclined to disagree with your analysis of Charlie's motives (which I confess are definitely not 100% clear to me). Charlie used Ansom to get Jillian to Spacerock, and then he tried to kill him when he realized that it was Ansom keeping Jillian from finishing the job at Spacerock. If Ansom is dust, then Jillian:

a) Is most interested in Wanda again... (maybe, or maybe she is actually over Wanda now... who knows)
b) No longer has to worry that killing Wanda will also kill Ansom.

Probably more damning... if killing Ansom was purely a strategic move designed to help out Jillian then Jillian would have no reason to feel betrayed by Charlie:

http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/ ... -05-06.jpg (panel 2)

[Tachyon]

Wall of text

I'm inclined to disagree with your analysis of Charlie's motives (which I confess are definitely not 100% clear to me). Charlie used Ansom to get Jillian to Spacerock, and then he tried to kill him when he realized that it was Ansom keeping Jillian from finishing the job at Spacerock. If Ansom is dust, then Jillian:

a) Is most interested in Wanda again... (maybe, or maybe she is actually over Wanda now... who knows)
b) No longer has to worry that killing Wanda will also kill Ansom.

Probably more damning... if killing Ansom was purely a strategic move designed to help out Jillian then Jillian would have no reason to feel betrayed by Charlie:

http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/ ... -05-06.jpg (panel 2)

I was trying to imply that the strategic move of taking Ansom out of the picture was intended to help Charlie, and Jetstone as well. It seemed to me that Charlie didn't give one whit about Jillian's motives being affected by Ansom, since his logic for telling Jillian about Ansom seemed to imply that she would use that knowledge as motivation to take out Wanda (in an effort to free/recover/otherwise save Ansom from her control). Because Charlie does not understand decryption and the control that it has over Ansom, and provides to Wanda, we can assume that Charlie's motives are one-half military, and one-half investigative, and have almost nothing to do with manipulating Jillian aside from gaining her aid for the military necessity of dealing with GK - in short, he did what he did because he incorrectly assessed Jillian's values to begin with.

Indeed, after the debacle that resulted in croaking Haggar's prince and capturing Ansom, Charlie has little interest in having Jillian involved in his affairs, although he does seem to still have interest in whether Ansom can be turned, now. He is more or less convinced by this point that Jetstone will fall if he does not directly aid them, thus the deals he had been trying to make with Tram.

[Lamech]

Wall of text

I'm inclined to disagree with your analysis of Charlie's motives (which I confess are definitely not 100% clear to me). Charlie used Ansom to get Jillian to Spacerock, and then he tried to kill him when he realized that it was Ansom keeping Jillian from finishing the job at Spacerock. If Ansom is dust, then Jillian:

a) Is most interested in Wanda again... (maybe, or maybe she is actually over Wanda now... who knows)
b) No longer has to worry that killing Wanda will also kill Ansom.

Probably more damning... if killing Ansom was purely a strategic move designed to help out Jillian then Jillian would have no reason to feel betrayed by Charlie:

http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/ ... -05-06.jpg (panel 2)

I was trying to imply that the strategic move of taking Ansom out of the picture was intended to help Charlie, and Jetstone as well. It seemed to me that Charlie didn't give one whit about Jillian's motives being affected by Ansom, since his logic for telling Jillian about Ansom seemed to imply that she would use that knowledge as motivation to take out Wanda (in an effort to free/recover/otherwise save Ansom from her control). Because Charlie does not understand decryption and the control that it has over Ansom, and provides to Wanda, we can assume that Charlie's motives are one-half military, and one-half investigative, and have almost nothing to do with manipulating Jillian aside from gaining her aid for the military necessity of dealing with GK.

Indeed, after the debacle that resulted in croaking Haggar's prince and capturing Ansom, Charlie has little interest in having Jillian involved in his affairs, although he does seem to still have interest in whether Ansom can be turned, now. He is more or less convinced by this point that Jetstone will fall if he does not directly aid them, thus the deals he had been trying to make with Tram.

I disagree, with the taking out Ansom helps militarily. The only thing that matter is getting the pliers gone. You have a shot at that now. Suppose you stop Ansom? Then what? A new chief warlord is chosen, probably one with the air force. They get a chief warlord bonus now and end up even stronger. That was a fail. Or Parson gets promoted to chief warlord and destroys Jetstone. That is an even harder fail. Yes the column is a bit weaker, but really whats the worst they could do? Run off and finish Jetstone's ungaurded cities? Help Haggar take Jetstone? Who really care at that point. Not Charlie if the threat of decryption is stopped.
Two if he simply wanted to study decrypted it would have been a lot easier to grab a few infantry and run for as opposed too trying to croak Ansom. And besides, croaking Ansom tells you... they can be dusted? Already known.

[Tachyon]

I disagree, with the taking out Ansom helps militarily. The only thing that matter is getting the pliers gone. You have a shot at that now. Suppose you stop Ansom? Then what? A new chief warlord is chosen, probably one with the air force. They get a chief warlord bonus now and end up even stronger. That was a fail. Or Parson gets promoted to chief warlord and destroys Jetstone. That is an even harder fail. Yes the column is a bit weaker, but really whats the worst they could do? Run off and finish Jetstone's ungaurded cities? Help Haggar take Jetstone? Who really care at that point. Not Charlie if the threat of decryption is stopped.
Two if he simply wanted to study decrypted it would have been a lot easier to grab a few infantry and run for as opposed too trying to croak Ansom. And besides, croaking Ansom tells you... they can be dusted? Already known.

By "studying decryption" I meant he wanted to see what effect it would have to croak Wanda, on the decrypted. You'll recall he discussed this with Parson in a summer update. Had nothing to do with croaking Ansom. Ansom was just an obstacle to Jetstone's defense.

The only thing that matters to Charlie (in this fight, anyway) is not just getting the 'pliers gone, his priority is also saving Jetstone from GK. In his plan (involving Kingworld, which is why Vanna was there from the start), Wanda wouldn't have been able to do much against Jetstone from the air. The "food fight" strategy was a surprise for him that he had not taken into account earlier, when Jillian first arrived at Jetstone.

You do make a good point about GK still being able to promote a new warlord after the fact, but this means GK has to commit Shmuckers to promote them, as I pointed out earlier. Ansom was a high-level warlord, formerly Royal (possibly still retaining the bonus Royal units get to stats), and so on. He was a high-level Prince prior to being decrypted; he was already a big threat back then. Take those numbers in tandem with his Leadership bonus and the cost of promoting a new warlord to Chief Warlord, and you have Charlie's motive for croaking Ansom.

[effataigus]

Because Charlie does not understand decryption and the control that it has over Ansom, and provides to Wanda, we can assume that Charlie's motives are one-half military, and one-half investigative, and have almost nothing to do with manipulating Jillian aside from gaining her aid for the military necessity of dealing with GK - in short, he did what he did because he incorrectly assessed Jillian's values to begin with.

Indeed, after the debacle that resulted in croaking Haggar's prince and capturing Ansom, Charlie has little interest in having Jillian involved in his affairs, although he does seem to still have interest in whether Ansom can be turned, now.

I don't follow the logic of the first sentence above nor how, given it's conclusions about Charlie's goals, Ansom's capture could be considered a debacle. I agree that Charlie viewed it as a failure (inferred from his anger in the next thinkagram), but I'm guessing it had more to do with his failure to manipulate Jillian. That said, I'm fine with our opinions diverging on this, I think.

I admit that I'm not entirely sure why he went after Ansom as none of the reasons I can think of are both strong and likely. Here's my thinking... do poke holes in it if you disagree. This is a confusing question in the comic for me, and I'd like to arrive at a more solid understanding.

Possible reasons and my rationales for not liking them:

1. Beat up GK! Militarily it would make more sense to keep Ansom as CWL since this means that the important units will not get the either the in-hex or in-stack CWL bonuses. Ossomer (and presumably KC) is no slouch, so his in-hex bonuses should be better for the flying units than Ansom's out-of-hex bonus.

2. Convince Jillian to turn back! It's not clear that Jillian would go back and deal with Wanda even if Ansom were dead... although it does seem marginally more likely that she would go back for better or ill. He may be thinking that Jillian could be bribed to head back into the fray if Ansom were removed from the picture... or would do it for Jetstone's sake.

3. Get Parson! Charlie wanted Parson to get promoted to CWL... counting on him going through TMK and making himself vulnerable. It seems there is an implausible amount of foresight that would be required for this plan to have been in place for any length of time, however. I don't buy it.

4. Punish Jillian! He wanted to punish Jillian for not living up to her end of the bargain... seems childish and unlike Charlie.

5. Kill Wrigley! Wrigley is clearly the greatest threat to the attuned... especially with Ansom's leadership. Little does Charlie know that he has become more powerful in death than... nevermind.

Of these, my money is on trying to convince Jillian to head back because it fits with his apparent love of archons. While I'm not convinced that Jillian's airforce would make much of a difference in killing the strike force (bracer be danged, since any losses could be decrypted and used by GK), Jillian is Charlie's only way to get his Archons back as anything other than a pile of dust. Without her, it's arrows and shockamancy. With her, it's units that are wildly good at capturing other units (megalos) controlled by a leader that already knows about Charlescomm's involvement, already owes Charlie big, has a rented turnamancer on hand, and needs money badly.

[Lamech]

Of these, my money is on trying to convince Jillian to head back because it fits with his apparent love of archons. While I'm not convinced that Jillian's airforce would make much of a difference in killing the strike force (bracer be danged, since any losses could be decrypted and used by GK), Jillian is Charlie's only way to get his Archons back as anything other than a pile of dust. Without her, it's arrows and shockamancy. With her, it's units that are wildly good at capturing other units (megalos) controlled by a leader that already knows about Charlescomm's involvement, already owes Charlie big, has a rented turnamancer on hand, and needs money badly.

I'm pretty sure the danger was from the spare caster. Not Jillian's airforce. And really? What would have the Jillian done when the dwagons started walking in? Shook her fist menacingly? Note the walking part; Jillian couldn't move from the airspace. So I agree the bracer wasn't indicative of Jillian's airforce mattering. It was the caster mattering. (And matter it did.)
I also note the guy with the battle analyzer on his head (Duncan) thought they would lose.

[Housellama]

I also note the guy with the battle analyzer on his head (Duncan) thought they would lose.

I don't think that we can definitively say anything based on what Duncan's analyzer said. A stack doesn't lose unless the entire stack loses. And since we don't know what "The Titans were laughing" indicates, we cannot say what it means. Sure, the rest of them might get wiped out, but if Jillian survived, then the stack didn't lose. I realize that's splitting hairs, but with between Jillian and Wanda, it's a mighty important hair.

In every conflict between them, Wanda has been unwilling or unable to really hurt Jillian. I believe (personal opinion here, put down the torches) that Jillian doesn't has that problem anymore. She might not like it, but I think that if push came to shove, she could kill Wanda. I really don't believe that Wanda could do that to Jillian, even now.

[Tachyon]

Panel 5: http://www.erfworld.com/wp-content/uplo ... -09-15.jpg
You'll recall that Charlie views all of the decrypted as "things", "puppets", whatever. He likely took an identical view of Ansom at the time, and assumed that Jillian did as well.

In case nobody bothered to read the last post I made:

I disagree, with the taking out Ansom helps militarily. The only thing that matter is getting the pliers gone. You have a shot at that now. Suppose you stop Ansom? Then what? A new chief warlord is chosen, probably one with the air force. They get a chief warlord bonus now and end up even stronger. That was a fail. Or Parson gets promoted to chief warlord and destroys Jetstone. That is an even harder fail. Yes the column is a bit weaker, but really whats the worst they could do? Run off and finish Jetstone's ungaurded cities? Help Haggar take Jetstone? Who really care at that point. Not Charlie if the threat of decryption is stopped.
Two if he simply wanted to study decrypted it would have been a lot easier to grab a few infantry and run for as opposed too trying to croak Ansom. And besides, croaking Ansom tells you... they can be dusted? Already known.

By "studying decryption" I meant he wanted to see what effect it would have to croak Wanda, on the decrypted. You'll recall he discussed this with Parson in a summer update. Had nothing to do with croaking Ansom. Ansom was just an obstacle to Jetstone's defense.

The only thing that matters to Charlie (in this fight, anyway) is not just getting the 'pliers gone, his priority is also saving Jetstone from GK. In his plan (involving Kingworld, which is why Vanna was there from the start), Wanda wouldn't have been able to do much against Jetstone from the air. The "food fight" strategy was a surprise for him that he had not taken into account earlier, when Jillian first arrived at Jetstone.

You do make a good point about GK still being able to promote a new warlord after the fact, but this means GK has to commit Shmuckers to promote them, as I pointed out earlier. Ansom was a high-level warlord, formerly Royal (possibly still retaining the bonus Royal units get to stats), and so on. He was a high-level Prince prior to being decrypted; he was already a big threat back then. Take those numbers in tandem with his Leadership bonus and the cost of promoting a new warlord to Chief Warlord, and you have Charlie's motive for croaking Ansom.

[Oberon]

And we shall see, we shall see... Will it be Charlie, someone else or no one behind Jojo?

Right now, Parson, Marie, Sizemore and Janis are behind Jojo. Formal proof: Parson can see Jojo's back side. QED.

I used to think you were crazy, but now I can see your nuts.

[Kreistor]

Panel 5: http://www.erfworld.com/wp-content/uplo ... -09-15.jpg
You'll recall that Charlie views all of the decrypted as "things", "puppets", whatever. He likely took an identical view of Ansom at the time, and assumed that Jillian did as well.

The use of the pronoun "it" is also used when the speaker is unaware of, or has not decided upon, an identity, so Charlie may merely be leaving the question open. You'll notice he hedges and is noncommittal in Panel 6.

[Tachyon]

Panel 5: http://www.erfworld.com/wp-content/uplo ... -09-15.jpg
You'll recall that Charlie views all of the decrypted as "things", "puppets", whatever. He likely took an identical view of Ansom at the time, and assumed that Jillian did as well.

The use of the pronoun "it" is also used when the speaker is unaware of, or has not decided upon, an identity, so Charlie may merely be leaving the question open. You'll notice he hedges and is noncommittal in Panel 6.

A ruler obsessed with secrecy and manipulation, evading and trying to obfuscate details about the way he thinks? While dealing with a side that had previously established policies preventing even communication with him, and at that, one among many who believed he was their enemy? Noooo.

Now you're going to tell me the sky is blue. :P

I believe I will hedge on this myself, but only because it's popular to be noncommittal. You might be right.

[Kreistor]

A ruler obsessed with secrecy and manipulation, evading and trying to obfuscate details about the way he thinks?

And yet, somehow, you know exactly how he thinks.

[Tachyon]

Well, it's a good bet, anyway. If I thought he was actually trying to manipulate events so that Jillian would ride to GK and take on Stanley herself, I'd say so.

I don't, but that would be very sneaky. :P

[Kreistor]

Well, it's a good bet, anyway. If I thought he was actually trying to manipulate events so that Jillian would ride to GK and take on Stanley herself, I'd say so.

He likely took an identical view of Ansom at the time, and assumed that Jillian did as well.

Charlie with the most powerful Thinkamancy artifact in existence "assumes", where he can "know"?

I don't think so. Not even in the slightest.

[Tachyon]

At the risk of sounding haughty, do you have a better explanation for his actions? He might be very powerful, but his reasoning is still grounded in what he can personally come up with; he won't direct his attention somewhere he is not inclined to, even though he could. I'm only assuming the Arkendish gives him a high degree of control of Thinkamantic powers, not that it enhances his own Natural Thinkamancy (powers of intuition, concentration, and anticipation, specifically, is what I mean here - at best, he can consult with his Archons for this, which is an ability it grants rather than an outright increase in his own stats).

I am not assuming I'm 100% correct, either, but I would like to hear if you have another theory.

[DoctorJest]

Rob? Can we have a new page now? I'm running out of tinfoil.

[Kreistor]

At the risk of sounding haughty, do you have a better explanation for his actions? He might be very powerful, but his reasoning is still grounded in what he can personally come up with;

To determine someone's motivations from their actions, one must:

1) Know exactly what knowledge they have and do not have
2) Have an accurate profile of their personality, so you can determine their priorities
3) Know their closest allies, who may propose alternatives, if trusted adequately enough to know what's going on
4) Know what resources are available, and how much they are worth
5) Be smarter than him (An idiot cannot invent a plan a far more intelligent person could invent)

And maybe some other things.

In other words, to accurately present what Charlie might do, I would have to know Charlie inside and out, and I would have to be smarter than him. So here are the problems that get in the way of the above:

a) We don't know what Charlie knows about the situation. Some people assume he has infinite knowledge. I do not.
b) We do not know Charlie's personality, in the slightest. We were lead to believe that he was entirely mercenary, and yet he has thrown Schmuckers at creating FAQ. There is an aspect of Charlie that we were not aware of throughout Book 1. How many other aaspects are we missing?
c) We do not know what resources Charlie has available to him. We know about Archons, the Arkendish, his city, and his ability to draw upon Casters in the MK, but we don't have a complete list of what deals he could make with Sides the readership is not aware of, how indebted those nations are, other magic items Charlie may have, etc., etc.
d) Which of us is smarter -- Rob or me? There is no Charlie. Rob is the intelligence behind Charlie, and that skews everything. Charlie won't act like a paranoid schizophrenic if he has that disorder: he will act like Rob's view of what paranoid schizophrenia is.

In other words, while I could invent an explanation for Charlie, I can guarantee that it is wrong, because we lack a lot of essential knowledge ion order to predict that action.

[Tachyon]

'kay. So in short your answer is no. I guess there's no point in discussing an educated guess at length if you don't want to entertain it and serve it pie.

And yeah, can I get more tinfoil over here please? XD