Kreistor wrote:No, most certainly not. HAving learned what Parson's strategy is, does Charlie actual use that information to determine how to deploy his troops? Parson knows that Charlie can, so Parson can choose a strategy that is specifically designed to deal with that defense.
And no, it isn't a "win," in any sense. Charlie is still facing an unknown, and it has cost him at least one battle calculation.
Well, you seem to be making the argument that the calculations are worthless if Charlie attempts to use them to defend himself against Parson. So why not use up a worthless resource, just for the chance it might help?
Kreistor wrote:BTW, the sample space is far too small to draw any inference on whether predictions cannot fail at this point. It's entirely possible, but I'm looking at that stigma attached to Predictamancers whose Sides fall and thinking Predictions have to be able to be caused to fail.
I appreciate that the sample size is vanishingly small. But it's all we have for now. (and I don't really expect much more except for Marie tossing out a few more "This is soch an im-POA-tant turn, Sizemore. I told Jonnis that days ago, didn't I, honnay?" and "No she's really da one, I Predict it Jonnis,") And there is no denying the stigma, but as I said prejudice and misunderstanding seem as strong in Erfworld as they are in Stupidworld.
Kreistor wrote:There's one thing about most of the Predictions that we've seen so far: most of them are positive for the receiver, so they want them to come true. Banhammer certainly tried to avoid his Side falling by popping an heir: kinda hard to explain why you'd pop an heir if you thought your Side falling was inevitable.
Perhaps for the same reason sides occasionally break off a portion of their assets into a new side? Dunno, it is a bit mystifying.