Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

[drachefly]

Can you constrain the meaning of 'Fight with Charlie' a bit? Do you mean that Charlie is openly fighting for his own sake?

[bob the 6th]

I mean an open siege of charlies strong hold, perhaps with a few archon fights before they reach the city.

[drachefly]

Pool: "how many dead thinkamancers are going to end up on the other side of the portal with Parson?"

I guess I'm already exposed on this issue, what with Parson's level, but I'll put 20 quatloos on zero.

[fjolnir]

I will put 10 on "not more than 2"

[drachefly]

That's not how pools work. Is that 3 each on 0, 1, and 2? 10 on 1?

[fjolnir]

10 on parson to beat the spread.

[drachefly]

I, uh, haven't set a spread. You need a bookie to do that. So, let's just say you're offering an independent bet that 2 or fewer dead thinkamancers will be dragged into SR when parson transits. You haven't specified odds, so I'm going to suppose you mean 1:1.

I, on the other hand, will offer an uneven odds bet. If 3 or more thinkamancers end up on the other side of the portal with Parson, dead (in either order - transit and kill or kill and transit), you pay 20. Otherwise, I pay 4. That's 5:1 odds, you get to take the house side.

[fjolnir]

Fair enough.

Personally, with the numbers given and home field advantage on their side vs the protagonist I would put the spread at around .5-1.5.... which is why I put no more than 2 with parson beating the spread.

[Sixty]

I want to bet some quatloos that Parson will at some point destroy his bracer to keep Charlie from being able to use one or more of his calculations, but I'm less confident about it happening in this book though I still think it has a decent shot of happening.

10 Quatloos on Parson destroying on purpose or hiding from himself (possibly via some thinkamancy help) his bracer by the end of the Book.

Deep down I suspect Parson will lose all 3 of the items he got when he arrived in Erfworld as he eventually stops needing them as a crutch, but I think I'll keep it at that one bet for now.

[drachefly]

I'll take that one.

[Beeskee]

10 on Parson sparing non-combatants in the upcoming Jetstone battle, and (or?) ordering his subordinates (including Wanda) to spare non-combatants.

10 more on Slately disbanding the saved units right in front of Parson, with some rationalization or another as to why. (Such as "I can't afford to pay their upkeep.")


Probably moot if Slately flies the coop before GK can really engage. Would that count as a loss or a draw? Is this even a valid bet?

[MarbitChow]

10 on Parson sparing non-combatants in the upcoming Jetstone battle, and (or?) ordering his subordinates (including Wanda) to spare non-combatants.
10 more on Slately disbanding the saved units right in front of Parson, with some rationalization or another as to why. (Such as "I can't afford to pay their upkeep.")
Probably moot if Slately flies the coop before GK can really engage. Would that count as a loss or a draw? Is this even a valid bet?

You first need to define 'noncombatant', because conventional wisdom is that there are no such units.
You may want to rephrase this as "10 on Parson sparing all captured units instead of croaking and decrypting them".

[Beeskee]

There are units such as courtiers. Also Slately refers (mentally) to one of his subjects as a "peasant girl" - I'm guessing they're in the same category. That's what I meant by non-combatant. A unit which has a 0 attack and 0 defense stat. Or, if that's not possible, a 1 attack and 1 defense stat.


http://www.erfworld.com/wiki/index.php/Courtier

[MarbitChow]

Time for me to put up: 100 Quatloos on Charlie being revealed as being behind the unusual Dwagon spawns on the way to FAQ that Stanley capitalized on, as well as the gobwin uprising that killed Saline IV, before the end of Book III.

[Swodaems]

Time for me to put up: 100 Quatloos on Charlie being revealed as being behind the unusual Dwagon spawns on the way to FAQ that Stanley capitalized on, as well as the gobwin uprising that killed Saline IV, before the end of Book III.

That bet is a little too rich for my blood, but I'd be willing to accept a lower one.

That said, I'm putting up 10 Quatloos on Queen Bea as the villain behind Saline's croaking and another 10 on the Dwagon encounters being a unintended effect caused by the dwagons instinctively scavenging meat.

Another 20 says Banhammer was already uncroaked by the time Stanley arrived in Faq and that Wanda was trying to stage an elaborate play to fool Jillian.

[drachefly]

[That said, I'm putting up 10 Quatloos on Queen Bea as the villain behind Saline's croaking and another 10 on the Dwagon encounters being a unintended effect caused by the dwagons instinctively scavenging meat.

Another 20 says Banhammer was already uncroaked by the time Stanley arrived in Faq and that Wanda was trying to stage an elaborate play to fool Jillian.

We'll need a time-frame on these revelations. End of book 4, say?

If so, I'll take the Dwagon and Banhammer bets.

[Swodaems]

[That said, I'm putting up 10 Quatloos on Queen Bea as the villain behind Saline's croaking and another 10 on the Dwagon encounters being a unintended effect caused by the dwagons instinctively scavenging meat.

Another 20 says Banhammer was already uncroaked by the time Stanley arrived in Faq and that Wanda was trying to stage an elaborate play to fool Jillian.

We'll need a time-frame on these revelations. End of book 4, say?

If so, I'll take the Dwagon and Banhammer bets.

Agreed, end of book 4 it is.

[Sixty]

I'll take the Queen Bea one you mentioned (end of Book 4 as well?).

[:-)]

I bet 10qs Jacks survives till the end.

[MarbitChow]

Time for me to put up: 100 Quatloos on Charlie being revealed as being behind the unusual Dwagon spawns on the way to FAQ that Stanley capitalized on, as well as the gobwin uprising that killed Saline IV, before the end of Book III.

That bet is a little too rich for my blood, but I'd be willing to accept a lower one.

Bet whatever you want against it. If others want to bet against it as well, they can take up the remaining amount, up to the original 100.