Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby BLANDCorporatio » Fri Sep 30, 2011 4:08 pm

Huh. Looks like I'll lose my bet. Wanda's not likely to be in a condition to order her minions to croak Jack for some impromptu SCIENCE.
The whole point of this is lost if you keep it a secret.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Sun Oct 02, 2011 9:01 am

Let's reserve judgement on that one. Things can change. Still, you're right - not looking as likely.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:28 am

Pool #2: Predict the update in which the tower of Spacerock is destroyed by siege creatures and/or equipment. Updates after 100 and 'never' will not be accepted as unique entries, only as '101+'. Nearest bettor wins, in case it lies unequally between bets; if equally between them, the pot is split.
I put 10 quatloos on comic 81, 2 on 101+.
Sixty has 10 quatloos on 101+.
Agarwaen has 10 on update 68.
Note: So, Agarwaen wins with 74 or less


I request a ruling. Does Agarwaen win, based on update 74? The tower is mid-destruction. I'd point out that it is (almost certainly) still providing a bonus to Cubbins, which suggests that from a combat-mechanical point of view it's still 'up'. He still has a chance to win if when 75 comes around the tower's all fallen and people are just looking at the rubble… or would that be a tie?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby BLANDCorporatio » Sun Oct 16, 2011 4:32 am

Hmm. Well, Issue 2 has ended, and Wanda hasn't expressed any kill-Jack thoughts. Now, I might try and argue that the Book isn't done, just the issue, but even with that technicality, it doesn't appear Wanda will do as I have supposed.

So I'll call that bet of mine lost.

drachefly wrote:
Pool #2: Predict the update in which the tower of Spacerock is destroyed by siege creatures and/or equipment. Updates after 100 and 'never' will not be accepted as unique entries, only as '101+'. Nearest bettor wins, in case it lies unequally between bets; if equally between them, the pot is split.
I put 10 quatloos on comic 81, 2 on 101+.
Sixty has 10 quatloos on 101+.
Agarwaen has 10 on update 68.
Note: So, Agarwaen wins with 74 or less


I request a ruling. Does Agarwaen win, based on update 74? The tower is mid-destruction. I'd point out that it is (almost certainly) still providing a bonus to Cubbins, which suggests that from a combat-mechanical point of view it's still 'up'. He still has a chance to win if when 75 comes around the tower's all fallen and people are just looking at the rubble… or would that be a tie?


Argh. This is what happens when language is used, what does "destroyed" mean?

Now, I don't know who's qualified to rule on these semantics, but if I were to throw 2c, I'd guess p74 is when the tower was "destroyed", by analogy with sinking battleships. As far as I remember, one would use "the ship is sunk" even as the thing is above water, but so full of holes that the process of going under is obvious and irreversible by readily available means.

Though I can see merit in both views. After all, the tower is not demolished, as in a pile of rubble.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby mortissimus » Sun Oct 16, 2011 2:52 pm

BLANDCorporatio wrote:Argh. This is what happens when language is used, what does "destroyed" mean?

Now, I don't know who's qualified to rule on these semantics, but if I were to throw 2c, I'd guess p74 is when the tower was "destroyed", by analogy with sinking battleships. As far as I remember, one would use "the ship is sunk" even as the thing is above water, but so full of holes that the process of going under is obvious and irreversible by readily available means.


But that could also happen in the last squares of 72 (boom, crack, crumble) and 73 (leaning tower). My 2 eurocents are on 74 though, as this is a comic and in page 74 we have a splashpage showing the tower going down. The board of Standards of Comic Storytelling Practices tells me that a splashpage is the accepted way of telling something important has happened.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby effataigus » Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:55 pm

BLANDCorporatio wrote:Hmm. Well, Issue 2 has ended, and Wanda hasn't expressed any kill-Jack thoughts. Now, I might try and argue that the Book isn't done, just the issue, but even with that technicality, it doesn't appear Wanda will do as I have supposed.

So I'll call that bet of mine lost.


One day in and already violating my self-imposed posting ban! I can ignore things that seem wrong on the reactions thread, but, by God man, Quatloos are on the line here!

Anyway, just wanted to say that you were pretty explicit in your bet about it being for the end of Book 2 rather than issue 2. I refuse to collect my winnings until the victory is complete! There is still one issue left on this bet!

Swodaems wrote:Another 20 says Banhammer was already uncroaked by the time Stanley arrived in Faq and that Wanda was trying to stage an elaborate play to fool Jillian.


Accepted! If I can... not sure how many I have to wager in the first place.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:10 am

I already took that bet. Anyone want to take the other side of it for Effataigus?

Also, with Book zero coming, we have a LOT of room for bets on this subject!! Bets on causes of found dwagons? Bets on Marie's motives?

But, let's open Pool #3:
Number of installments in Book 0, by its official count (highest update number, plus one for each 'and a half' or similar retroactive insertions). Rob estimated 60 installments. Pool closes at issue 25.

I put 2 q on 45.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby effataigus » Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:30 am

drachefly wrote:I already took that bet. Anyone want to take the other side of it for Effataigus?


Oh, whoops! Withdrawn.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Wed Nov 02, 2011 3:49 pm

I offer an even 5q bet that Wanda makes Master class before reaching FAQ.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby vintermann » Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:04 am

Can I play too?

I like short-term, risky bets. I bet 10 quatloos that once Goodminton falls, Wanda will not in fact be captured by an opposing side, but escape through the portal in the dungeon to become a barbarian in the Magic Kingdom (temporarily, obviously).
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Thu Nov 03, 2011 11:50 am

I'll take that one.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby vintermann » Fri Nov 04, 2011 5:39 am

Great, we're on!

The reason I think so is that Delphie Temple strongly suggested taking chambers in the dungeon - where the portal is. I think she has predictamancy on it. Obviously, it could also be just to keep an eye on her, but why then the implied threat? And why did Rob Balder decide that Goodminton casters should be in the dungeon anyway, seems a bit odd doesn't it? Unless the portal matters. Which I'm confident it will.

My guess is that as a mercenary MK croakamancer, Wanda will run into fellow mercenary Jillian on business. Probably not King Banhammer's ideal daughter-in-law, but there you have the chink in his bubble kingdom armor.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby BCCroaker » Tue Nov 08, 2011 5:49 pm

I'd like a long term bet that Parson and Wanda become an item, at least for a while. 20 qualoos?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby BLANDCorporatio » Tue Nov 08, 2011 6:02 pm

BCCroaker wrote:I'd like a long term bet that Parson and Wanda become an item, at least for a while. 20 qualoos?


I wonder what kind of bonuses that item would besto- oh, you mean that kind of item. Ok, you're on. Just specify a reasonable deadline, and I'll bet against it.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby BCCroaker » Thu Nov 10, 2011 5:33 pm

BLANDCorporatio wrote:
BCCroaker wrote:I'd like a long term bet that Parson and Wanda become an item, at least for a while. 20 qualoos?


I wonder what kind of bonuses that item would besto- oh, you mean that kind of item. Ok, you're on. Just specify a reasonable deadline, and I'll bet against it.


I like the idea of Parson and Wanda, hand in hand, walking acros a blasted and otherwise lifeless landscape - because that's the only way to break the world and stop all war. But that would be right at the end, so for the sake of the bet, I'll go for earlier. We're about halfway though book two, right? So by the end of book two?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby BCCroaker » Mon Nov 14, 2011 7:47 pm

I'll bet 50 qualoos that Rob doesn't get to 15,000 words for IP(TSF) by the end of November. NaNov Mo it's supposed to be 50,000at least!
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Tue Nov 15, 2011 10:28 am

BCCroaker wrote:I'll bet 50 qualoos that Rob doesn't get to 15,000 words for IP(TSF) by the end of November. NaNov Mo it's supposed to be 50,000at least!


Hmm. Presently at 8484. I'll take that bet, with the proviso that the bet is off if comic-style updates resume during November. Accept?

ETA: That was as of update 7.
Update 8: 1023 words
Update 9: 936 words
Update 10: 2440 words
Update 11: 1116 words
Update 12: 1294 words
total to date: 15290 words (November 28)

Now just waiting for month to end without a comic-style update.

Further note: NaNoWriMo novels emphasize quantity over quality. I'd much rather have Erf quality in 3/10 the quantity...
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby BCCroaker » Tue Nov 15, 2011 5:09 pm

drachefly wrote:
BCCroaker wrote:I'll bet 50 qualoos that Rob doesn't get to 15,000 words for IP(TSF) by the end of November. NaNov Mo it's supposed to be 50,000at least!


Hmm. Presently at 8484. I'll take that bet, with the proviso that the bet is off if comic-style updates resume during November. Accept?

Yes, I accept - could be quite close. Rob's date/time at the bottom of the page as the time when November is over if it come down to the wire on the 30th? We're probably in different time zones.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby BCCroaker » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Ho, thought I was looking good until the last update - that was a BIG one!
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby MarbitChow » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:52 pm

BCCroaker wrote:I like the idea of Parson and Wanda, hand in hand, walking acros a blasted and otherwise lifeless landscape - because that's the only way to break the world and stop all war. But that would be right at the end, so for the sake of the bet, I'll go for earlier. We're about halfway though book two, right? So by the end of book two?

Can I get in on that? I'd be willing to throw in 50 that they don't become an item by the end of book three (3). Note that book two will probably consist entirely of a single day, so it's not likely to happen in the time frame you've mentioned.
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