Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 009

[Megaduck]

I'm going to go with another theory. What if Delphie is motivated by Duty and is trying to save Goodmiton.

Consider, the Mathamancer states that for every number you'll get a zero and that Fate is lazy and pulls form the nearest source. With Wanda Goodmiton just rolled a REALLY good number and now they are due for a really BAD number. But, If Delphie can pass Wanda off to Haffaton then they'll get the bad number.

Additionally, Delphie is a predictimancer. Lets assume for a minute that she knows everything that we know. Wanda is going to go to FAQ and then go to GK. The simplest way for this to happen is for goodmiton to somehow be destroyed and leave Wanda leaderless so she goes to FAQ. However, if Delphie can trade Wanda away for peace then there can be ways or Wanda to get to FAQ that do not include Goodmiton's destruction.

The only problem I can see with this theory is that the simplest thing Delphie could have done to save Goodmiton was to stop Wanda from ever popping. But I suppose it's possible that with the amount of Fate Wanda is supposed to have, Delphie decided to let her exist anyways because she felt that Wanda would have a net positive effect on the world.

Delphie might not have had a choice. Without Wanda popping tBfGK would never have happened so Wanda had to have popped. So what Delphie has to do is try to maneuver the story to tBfGK without having Goodmitton destroyed and with the least death and destruction to her side possible.

Wanda was extremely loyal to her original side. A pity she didn't get Parson at that time.

Speaking of Parson, what sort of Zero would he represent in this system? He also has literal Erf shaking significance way beyond the huge cost to summon him and his huge upkeep fee. Does this mean that GK will have bad rolls or does Parson not count because it wasn't random chance that summoned him?

Or is Parson where Erf divided by Zero?



The idea that every high roll has to be balanced by a low roll is an interesting one. It could be Erfworlds balancing system to keep the conflict ongoing. A side wiping out creates a negative that needs to be balanced and a new side is created or a side expanding to fast creates a positive to be balanced resulting in bad luck for that side. Sort of like how in the Game Planetside if one Empire is to large then the other two start getting bonus.

This could explain how no one has won yet. I sort of see Erfworld as a big game of Civilization with a whole lot of sides and a tactical simulator added in. In Civ once you reach a certain size you can start grinding up other smaller civs easily and the momentum swings in your favor as your expansion fuels your expansion. The fact that Erf doesn't have this happen could mean there is some sort means to prevent a large side from continuously expanding, it could be maintenance fees, or distance from capital fees or something like that. Or it could be a civ that has gotten to large starts having roll issues.

[Whispri]

If they were smart, they'd put a heavy money penalty on breaking the treaty, so if their enemies do attack their treasuries are solvent again. I'm not sure of the tactical benefit of sending Wanda away. They took a few cities easily. If their enemy started a concerted campaign they might well get destroyed. Or not. Anyway, if the predictomancer is working for their side, then they can easily predict the correct move to maximize their chance of survival, and Wanda makes it a lot easier.

If. If the Predictamancer is working for them. There are very good reasons to doubt that. When a Side is destroyed, the Treasury is captured, if the treachery is executed well enough, no penalty clause they could hope to enforce would matter. A counter attack against a side with Wanda in it could easily end up strengthening their army, in the short term at least.

[goodmorning]

Definitely great to get some artwork back. Welcome back, Xin.

I don't see an issue with Wanda getting some clothes. Many people have different outfits. Wanda showed that in the first book. The Florist could simply have had some spare clothes. It's not an issue.

However, what I do find interesting is how similar Wanda's current outfit is to Jeftichew: http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/ ... -05-25.jpg

Ok, it's a fairly standard military-like style, but there haven't been that many coincidences so far. In Book 2, Wanda did not see Jeftichew around when she walked into the MK, so it's plausible that they do know each other. We may be seeing him come into the story sometime soon.

[Marller]

But still, I look at today's comic and the single images makes it so much better! I just want to hug uniform Wanda! THANK YOU XIN!

Indeed. I look at the picture and think Wanda should pick up her lightsword and embrace the dark side.

[Rykka]

I love Wanda. I always have. Favorite character. This just makes me love her more.

She was always a very interesting character. The depth and breadth this arc adds is a guilty pleasure.

Thank you for this.

[arkerpay]

Rob,

I have been following Erfworld since its beginning and the current series of prose update motivated me to register so I can post. Your writing and imagination is progressively improving since comic's inception. Thank you so much for contributing to my amusement.

Your plots are full of surprises, so I might be wrong on this. Those that have chosen to comment have wild theories of Delphie's motivations for her actions. Has anyone mentioned that Delphie might be motivated by fear and jealousy? She is currently in a position of influence and power and been permitted to get by without being tasked with anything difficult for who knows how many turns. Wanda is a clear threat to her because she is a genuine asset who volunteered to be 'on the pointy end of the spear' with great effect. She has gained the trust and respect of her brother and is also cute as a button.

Could this simply be a case of a bitter woman trying to remove a rival regardless of the cost to be paid later? Something so banal as a cause makes great writing.

[kiyote]

The idea that every high roll has to be balanced by a low roll is an interesting one. It could be Erfworlds balancing system to keep the conflict ongoing. A side wiping out creates a negative that needs to be balanced and a new side is created or a side expanding to fast creates a positive to be balanced resulting in bad luck for that side. Sort of like how in the Game Planetside if one Empire is to large then the other two start getting bonus.

This could explain how no one has won yet. I sort of see Erfworld as a big game of Civilization with a whole lot of sides and a tactical simulator added in. In Civ once you reach a certain size you can start grinding up other smaller civs easily and the momentum swings in your favor as your expansion fuels your expansion. The fact that Erf doesn't have this happen could mean there is some sort means to prevent a large side from continuously expanding, it could be maintenance fees, or distance from capital fees or something like that. Or it could be a civ that has gotten to large starts having roll issues.

It's not that luckamancy requires a high roll to be substituted for a low roll, its just, to paraphrase an argument in the last Book 0 thread, all rolls are random, but if luckamancy "claims" the lowest rolls, the distribution of all the remaining rolls shifts upwards.

Take a look at this dice roll simulation: http://anydice.com/program/c27

In the second graph, you see roughly the total attack power of the enemy in a erfworld battle of nine pairings. The curve is basically guassian.

In the first graph, you see what would happen if a luckamancer buffed three of your warlords in the fight. These three warlords would have first dibs on the lowest of the attack rolls, while the rest of rolls are shared amongst the remaining battles. You notice how the curve is shifted to the downwards, which simulates a higher average attack power.

If it helps to look at things this way, if your enemy's attack had a one in ten chance of being botched (rolling a 1), with a luckamancy spell on a single ally, the odds are now 1 in 100, two allies, 1 in 1,000, three allies, 1 in 10,000. You're getting hit harder, more frequently.

It also makes sense that Goodminton feels the effects of luckamancy the hardest on its lowest troops. A high level warlord can probably absorb a few crit attacks, but a Level 1 unled infantry probably cannot.

This said, Fate magic and mathamancy probably don't work this way, and are zero sum.

[BCCroaker]

On Predictamancy
"You know what's interesting about writing a prequel that revolves around prophecy and prediction? You, the readers, have absolute foreknowledge of certain outcomes of this story, but not exactly how Wanda will get there. So you are all reading this in the role of Predictamancers."
Rob on Twitter and Facebook

[gameboy1234]

The idea that every high roll has to be balanced by a low roll is an interesting one.

It's not that luckamancy requires a high roll to be substituted for a low roll, its just, to paraphrase an argument in the last Book 0 thread, all rolls are random, but if luckamancy "claims" the lowest rolls, the distribution of all the remaining rolls shifts upwards.

This is what I get too. It's not that rolls have to be balanced, it's just that's how Luckmancy works (probably to prevent it from being over-powered).

I get the feeling many of you haven't actually played any table top war games. (No worries, it's geeky as all heck.) I've played a few. What you do is, and this is different than DnD, is you make all your rolls for an attack at the same time. You literally pick up a handful of dice and toss them on the table. Each dice is an individual guy, and represents whether he wins or looses his little individual fight on the table top.

What they're saying is that, if you have Luckmancy, you can rearrange the die rolls so that the guys who are important win their battles, while giving lousy rolls to other guys who are presumably going to loose. (However, they wouldn't have to loose even if they have bad rolls. If they're fighting weak opponents, or have other bonuses (high ground, a big wall, etc.) they might just stalemate or something).

That's it. Or at least that's how I read it. If you have played a table top war game, this is a pretty clear and simple mechanic. It's pretty easy to imagine rearranging your rolls on a table top like that. Rob could have something totally else in mind, of course, but that's how I see it.

Note, of course, that your rolls are still *random*, because you started off with random rolls of the dice. Nothing prevents all high rolls, or all low rolls, or makes each roll balanced with another. You toss your dice, and then work with the dice you got as best you can. So I see the "high/low balance" thing as just describing the physical (or metaphorical) rearranging of dice, but not the actual rolls themselves, which should be 100% random.

[Ytaker]

If they were smart, they'd put a heavy money penalty on breaking the treaty, so if their enemies do attack their treasuries are solvent again. I'm not sure of the tactical benefit of sending Wanda away. They took a few cities easily. If their enemy started a concerted campaign they might well get destroyed. Or not. Anyway, if the predictomancer is working for their side, then they can easily predict the correct move to maximize their chance of survival, and Wanda makes it a lot easier.

If. If the Predictamancer is working for them. There are very good reasons to doubt that. When a Side is destroyed, the Treasury is captured, if the treachery is executed well enough, no penalty clause they could hope to enforce would matter. A counter attack against a side with Wanda in it could easily end up strengthening their army, in the short term at least.

If the predictamancer isn't working for them they're screwed regardless of what they do. They're in a very delicate situation and they really need their predictamancer.

Due to the luckamancer, any enemy can't rely on taking them out in a single strike, since they can guarantee that any battle goes well for them. Their weakness is more attrition, due to the shifting of bad luck. And if their treasury is flush with wealth they can win a battle of attrition.

[Voyager]

Why was a flower power caster using a military style dress?

My guess is that the uniform is standard issue but the Hippiemancer never wears it.

It would explain why Wanda found it without having ever killed the wearer.

Wouldn't that mean the Flower girl popped wearing it? Hard to see why she'd leave it in a recently captured Goodminton City if she were merely casting it aside.

It pretty much has to have been left there for Wanda to find. The only real alternative is that the Flower girl left it there as part of the build up for the final battle for Goodminton... but why bother doing that?
[...]

It could also be she had a "Sgt. Pepper" type wardrobe.

[Sir_Dr_D]

Huh, mirrors are natural dittomancy? So what-- are bananas natural slippamancy? Is a flip book natural stageamancy?
How about putting a caterpillar under your nose so it looks like a mustache, is that natural changeamancy?

Don't be silly. The caterpillar under the nose would be natural signamancy.


The update did not say mirrors werre natural dittomancy. It just used dittomancy in a creative expression. "The dittomancy of the mirror" could have been replaced with an expression such as "the familariness of the image in the mirror", and would have meant about the same.


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Anyway it is nice to see art in the update again. Now we don't need to imagine what these characters look like. And Robb has kept his schedule 9 updates ina row. Thanks Robb. It is appreciated.

[Dark Matter]

This could explain how no one has won yet. I sort of see Erfworld as a big game of Civilization with a whole lot of sides and a tactical simulator added in. In Civ once you reach a certain size you can start grinding up other smaller civs easily and the momentum swings in your favor as your expansion fuels your expansion. The fact that Erf doesn't have this happen could mean there is some sort means to prevent a large side from continuously expanding, it could be maintenance fees, or distance from capital fees or something like that. Or it could be a civ that has gotten to large starts having roll issues.

When Parson was talking to (and feeding disinformation to) Charley, Parson mentioned something about his side hitting economies of scale or something like that (he was lying since decrypted don't have upkeep costs).

http://www.erfworld.com/2009/10/summer-updates-048/

[Kreistor]

Well, it looks liek we know the first serious nail in the coffin of Wanda's soul. She is going to uncroak her father and brother.

Okay, two important points covered.

1) Other cities produce units.

It was suspected (and often assumed), but I don't recall any direct statements that cities other than the Capital produce units.

2) The MK is neutral ground.

Again, assumed, but not definitively stated. We now know that there is no attacking enemy casters in the MK.

[Zeku]

It could also be she had a "Sgt. Pepper" type wardrobe.

Good catch.

I like the explanation that luckamancers choose which units get which rolls, but I also think that Erfworlders could be subject to ridiculous spiritual notions, just like real people. The entire thing "roll balance" concept is sort of like Gambler's Fallacy, so there's a chance that Clay Dice is just wrong.

The only difference with the Erfworld version is that Dice is saying good rolls require low rolls elsewhere, "at the same time." I might be reading into that a bit.

[Silvan]

Well, it looks liek we know the first serious nail in the coffin of Wanda's soul. She is going to uncroak her father and brother.

Okay, two important points covered.

1) Other cities produce units.

It was suspected (and often assumed), but I don't recall any direct statements that cities other than the Capital produce units.

2) The MK is neutral ground.

Again, assumed, but not definitively stated. We now know that there is no attacking enemy casters in the MK.

Wait those were debated?

When Siezmore was going out to rebuild cities through dragon relay he specifically said that those cities were being razed because they didn't produce useful unit types.

And the whole thing the Thinkamancers have a problem with with parson crossing the MK is that it would violate the MK's neutrality.

[Whispri]

If they were smart, they'd put a heavy money penalty on breaking the treaty, so if their enemies do attack their treasuries are solvent again. I'm not sure of the tactical benefit of sending Wanda away. They took a few cities easily. If their enemy started a concerted campaign they might well get destroyed. Or not. Anyway, if the predictomancer is working for their side, then they can easily predict the correct move to maximize their chance of survival, and Wanda makes it a lot easier.

If. If the Predictamancer is working for them. There are very good reasons to doubt that. When a Side is destroyed, the Treasury is captured, if the treachery is executed well enough, no penalty clause they could hope to enforce would matter. A counter attack against a side with Wanda in it could easily end up strengthening their army, in the short term at least.

If the predictamancer isn't working for them they're screwed regardless of what they do. They're in a very delicate situation and they really need their predictamancer.

Due to the luckamancer, any enemy can't rely on taking them out in a single strike, since they can guarantee that any battle goes well for them. Their weakness is more attrition, due to the shifting of bad luck. And if their treasury is flush with wealth they can win a battle of attrition.

Why? They've reclaimed three Cities purely because Wanda decided to ignore that Predictamancer, who is a known liar. If they're doomed, they're doomed, Predicamancy won't change that. And seeing that delaying the inevitable seems to be an anathema to the Predictamancer in question, why listen?

Yes they can, all they need to do is bring more and better dice to the table, a d8 will beat a Boosted d4 half the time. A column marches past Goodminton's Capital to face un-named enemy side #2, a few guys slip in for a word, they hold the gate open while the troops pour in, the Luckmancer's conveniently Boosting the wrong guys thanks to the Predictawench... Even if the sudden yet inevitable betrayal is botched, you're advocating a failed strategy, one that led them to the brink of annihilation. With Wanda backing them up they could win at attrition, as she can turn a field of dead men into a meatgrinder. Without her? What good would a little money do them?

[DJMandwich]

I just want to point out that it is rather interesting that a predictamancer is conspiring with a hippiemancer to maneuver someone who will will eventually be a key player in Books 1 and 2 where we see another predictamancer-hippiemancer pairing plotting together. Perhaps this Erf-peace plot has been going on for longer than we might have believed, and Delphie (and other predictamancers) knew about Parson's arrival long before the Summoning Spell was even created. Or, maybe predictamancers just typically target optimistic and gullible hippiemancers to further their own selfish plans.

[Kreistor]

Well, it looks liek we know the first serious nail in the coffin of Wanda's soul. She is going to uncroak her father and brother.

Okay, two important points covered.

1) Other cities produce units.

It was suspected (and often assumed), but I don't recall any direct statements that cities other than the Capital produce units.

2) The MK is neutral ground.

Again, assumed, but not definitively stated. We now know that there is no attacking enemy casters in the MK.

Wait those were debated?

When Siezmore was going out to rebuild cities through dragon relay he specifically said that those cities were being razed because they didn't produce useful unit types.

And the whole thing the Thinkamancers have a problem with with parson crossing the MK is that it would violate the MK's neutrality.

On the first, yes, I seem to recall something like that. Okay, yes, we already knew that. (That's part of why I post this. I don'thave an eidetic memory, and everyone remembers different details.

On the second, no, I don't think so. At least I don't recall a specific statement from the Thinkamancers on that point. What I remember is that they felt he was off target and they wanted to put him back on their agenda (ie. brainwashing). Sizemore talked about the COnvention against attacking through the gate, but I don't think anyone talked about violating MK neutrality in the comic.

[oslecamo2_temp]

On the first, yes, I seem to recall something like that. Okay, yes, we already knew that. (That's part of why I post this. I don'thave an eidetic memory, and everyone remembers different details.

Noncapital cities producing cities wasn't exactly an obscure detail. We also had Jillian deciding how to distribute production between her three cities when she restarted FAQ, and Ansom's big brother ordering to change unit production in a noncapital city when he rose to Chief Warlord.