Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby teratorn » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:50 am

vintermann wrote:Perhaps this should go in the speculation thread, but maybe predictamancy is a bit like in dune? By observing the future, maybe you force it to happen.


The central point of the novels going up to God Emperor of Dune, is that Muad'Dib foresaw a future where mankind would be erased in the relatively short term, but he also saw the awful alternative to that (besides the the mega-Jihad). He refused it, but his son, the worm eventually went for an horrid version of it (the Golden Path) avoiding that future. In Dune prescience didn't work if particular kind of people were involved (Guild navigators and others after the Golden Path) so courses of action weren't always clear, the possible futures branched whenever those people were involved in the action you were trying to predict.

There are obvious limits to predictamancy. If you put two guys and an almond and ask the predictamancer which one of the guys you will be ordering to eat the almond, the only option to make a prediction work is that both of them will fall dead if you order any of them to eat it.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby multilis » Tue Nov 22, 2011 11:41 am

teratorn wrote:The central point of the novels going up to God Emperor of Dune, is that Muad'Dib foresaw a future where mankind would be erased in the relatively short term, but he also saw the awful alternative to that (besides the the mega-Jihad). He refused it, but his son

I think you are wrong there. He didn't foresee mankind would be erased, when he met his son again he saw that son had chosen the awful "golden path", and asked why. Son said the alternative was extinction. Father said his own vision did not see that far.

So I think the father had hints that regular future would turn out bad but not on how bad.

...

In this case: Wanda is somehow a special unit like Parson, the predictomancer may not have been able to avoid that. We don't know what that really means.

...

I recall a story. An elephant trainer ties an baby elephant to a spike in the ground. The elephant struggles against the spike as hard as it can over and over. The spike doesn't budge. The elephant learns he can't defeat the rope and spike, and remembers.

Many years later the elephant is tied by the trainer to same spike. The elephant is now large, could easily rip spike out of ground. But he remembers that he "can't", so he doesn't try.

It is possible that fate is really some sort of conspiracy in magic kingdom. The conspiracy has enough power to secretly defeat Wanda when she was weak in a weak kingdom. But when she and her side is strong enough to challenge the world, they only have the memory of "fate" before to keep her doing the last parts of their plan.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby badninja » Tue Nov 22, 2011 12:44 pm

Wow Wanda's side did not sell her out as I thought they would. As already stated that lies will always catch up with you so when your telling the truth it will be seen as a lie. How will Wanda help her side in the short run become better and feared, as it has been predicted to fall, how long is the question? We have yet to see a prediction not come true so how will this happen?
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby DevilDan » Tue Nov 22, 2011 12:53 pm

Giving up Wanda might have saved her side, for at least a while longer. No, they didn't sell her out. And now things are going to get really ugly.

DevilDan wrote:On a more general topic, I'm beginning to see how Wanda knows from personal experience that struggling against fate can be quite painful, not just theoretically. It's possible that lessons has been one that Erf has taught her to respect, over and over, even before meeting and befriending (?) Faq's predictamancer or losing Faq to GK.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby kefkakrazy » Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:08 pm

Here we see how much of a crapsack it really must be to be a Predictamancer.

Your magic only shows the future, and it may or may not be changeable. Whether or not that's true, you have to contend with foreknowledge of your side's demise (as Delphie probably is.)

Not excusing Delphie; she's definitely a dislikable bitch, but she does have a shitty role to play here.

Wondering if Delphie is in on the Predictamancer conspiracy; that'd explain her actions, to a point, if her Loyalty to that superceded her Loyalty to Goodminton. (She might get an even bigger out from her Natural Thinkamancy controls if she believes that Goodminton is 100% doomed; she may believe that nothing she does can hurt them worse than they already are...)

Too bad Overlord Firebaugh keeps winding up with these fiddly "useless" casters. Man needs a Shockamancer (assuming that Shockamancy is direct-combat attack magic like we seem to believe)
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby Cevri » Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:12 pm

Excellent update - all I cared about was Delphie got smacked down. Regardless of whether Wanda is acting out of true loyalty or being manipulative, the wench got whammied.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby Sushi Database » Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:23 pm

Gotta wonder how it feels, to be a Predictamancer caught in the relentless gears of Fate. From the two we've seen they seem to have a wildly unpredictable interpretation of Duty. They seem better suited to the Magical Kingdom than working for an actual Side.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby the_tick_rules » Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:26 pm

Boy aren't they disfunctional?
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby Kalak » Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:55 pm

Delphie saw Wanda switch sides, right? So now, the telling thing will be does Wanda get forced to switch sides through capture, or does something worse happen instead? I wonder if it is going to be Wanda at Goodminton -> Haffaton -> Faq, or if it'll be straight to Faq. That would make Predictimancers wrong, but the future they see involves the least amount of pain.

Also, I think it is important to remember that Delphie is not just seeing her own stuff, but she is probably consorting with other Predictimancers in the MK. So, this isn't just Delphie holding on tight to things, but probably a group of them.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby BLANDCorporatio » Tue Nov 22, 2011 2:24 pm

Oh Wanda, please uncroak Delphie. Make her sweep the floors while singing the Hedgehog song. And thou shall be forever awesomer.

Sieggy wrote:Predictamancy can be like peeking inside the box to tell if the cat's alive or not . . . it collapses the variables to a single eigenstate, and that can't be changed. So you have to be extremely careful about what you look for, what questions to ask. Sort of like wish spells that DMs love to twist and bite you in the ass . . . The act of seeing locks the future into a single path, and variability ceases.


Eh wot? How about Predictamancy has no effect at all on the future? The usual interpretation of it in a lot of fiction is that Fate is fixed and whatever will be, will be. Fate is the universe being a film being played, only predictamancers have seen a bit of the future frames.

Their knowledge in Erfworld is incomplete, that we know. As a point of speculation, it might be that, for example, what Delphie saw was something like "whoever side has Wanda, that side will lose", but Delphie didn't see which side that was. What a predictamancer might then do is try and make choices that are likely to build the best future that is consistent with their prediction.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby Zeku » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:03 pm

There's no way to avoid the notion that prescient individuals like Leto II are really just choosing the future. Even in the case of documents like biblical prophecy, the assumption that the prophet (or God) "predicts" the future is arbitrary. From a literary and omnipotence point of view, it's simpler (Occam) to believe that the prophet or God is simply saying 'this is how I intend to do things in the future."

So this makes Predictamancy a bit of an enigma, and quite likely, a flat-out lie perpetrated by some exceptionally clever casters. Nearly ever magic field I see in the fate column involves manipulating some aspect of a living thing. Their health, their mind, their recently dead body, their appearance. So it would make sense if Predictamancy is simply a way of manipulating a living thing's beliefs, and not a way of controlling or seeing the future.

http://www.erfworld.com/wiki/index.php/Magic

Assuming that Predictamancy is a real thing, I can't be the only one who remembers us talking about what a horrible, manipulative person Delphie was, just a few strips ago?

Even if she turns out to be completely right, and the fall of Goodminton could have been avoided by trading Wanda, that doesn't mean that she was objectively, universally right. It could mean that this is just the way it turned out, and the Predictamancy got lucky. Wanda might be the one who is objectively right, that any magical field can fail. But because Wanda has only been alive for a few turns, she starts believing the same 'immutable fate' nonsense that Delphie used to constrict others into obeying her.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby zuche » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:07 pm

Was Wanda's fate reshaped because she desired her father's approval?
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby BLANDCorporatio » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:18 pm

Zeku wrote:There's no way to avoid the notion that prescient individuals like Leto II are really just choosing the future. Even in the case of documents like biblical prophecy, the assumption that the prophet (or God) "predicts" the future is arbitrary. From a literary and omnipotence point of view, it's simpler (Occam) to believe that the prophet or God is simply saying 'this is how I intend to do things in the future."


What does that mean? That non-prescient individuals, that is people without the gift of Prophecy, do not choose the future?

Also, the prophet is not omnipotent, but has access to knowledge from an omniscient being that therefore knows the future.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby Gorky » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:29 pm

I would say that one weakness of Predictamancy is that you have morons on your side who don't listen to you. That's why sides with Predictamancers don't always win.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby Hero of Shadows » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:36 pm

Hello,long time reader here since when this was on GITP, love the series but for some reason I never signed up for the forums.

When I came back and saw a large series of text updates I was very pleasantly surprised but to read that first story and see that Wanda was the protagonist I couldn't stay away.

Till now I've loved the caster scenes and something Wanda herself picked up on,every caster no matter how he behaves has a love for his/her -mancy and a curiosity about it at his core.

I like Wanda was sort of consigned with the treaty, but that scene where she said her peace really got me by the hearts tsrings and when she gave Delphie orders as Chief Caster was pure satisfaction all the way.

And Delphie,Clay got wind of something Clay who was never said to leave the dungeon,ok to the MK probably but he could have interacted with casters only so no leaking of military plans,couldn't you come up with something better?

Why would'nt I be surprised to learn you never cast a spell when somebody asks you to do your job,at least when you were on screen.

Also Clay being resigned to making scrolls I gather that he can make them without casting from his own discipline so that's why Wanda was so specific no more negative luck for unled troops.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby atalex » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:13 pm

I was suddenly stuck by a bit of irony about Delphie: She can (allegedly) foresee a future in which Wanda goes to Haffaton, and she can devise a plan in which that future comes true in a manner beneficial to her side rather than destructive. And it's all ruined because she is unable to foresee how the way she treats Wanda will provoke Wanda into ratting her out to the Overlord. Everything that happened -- Wanda going out into the field, Wanda interrogating Clay about what he's actually doing for their side, Wanda ratting out Delphie's deceptions -- sprang from the personal disdain Wanda has for Delphie that resulted from how Delphie has treated her since popping.

Hypothesis: Perhaps the limitation of Predictamancy is that the Predictamancer cannot see the outcomes of her own actions taken in furtherance of a prophecy itself. Delphie wanted option A (Wanda traded to Haffaton) but unwittingly provokes option B (Haffaton crushes Goodminton and simply takes Wanda).
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby ftl » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:36 pm

Hey! It's been forever since I posted here!

Nice to see Delphie get her comeuppance. It's the eternal conceit of predictamancers - just because they know the future and nobody else does doesn't mean they can manipulate everybody else and expect to get away with it just because they're right.

Wanda and Firebaugh are completely understandable - if Delphie lied about her predictions, how can they trust a word that she says, ever? So they don't.

No wonder Goodminton is screwed. The side has been being secretly run by a predictamancer with her own plans for Titans know how long.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby Kreistor » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:53 pm

And our big piece of learning today?

Predictamancy is always right.

"Let me tell you about my own Fate, Wanda," said Delphie. "I'm not fated to be your Chief Caster for long. But Olive is. And assuming that you go along and meet Fate on its own terms, I think that will turn out to be the best thing for everyone. Don't you?"


Delphie was quite correct. She was not Wanda's Chief for long.

But Delphie was very, very wrong. Why?

Because Prediction, like most prophecy in fiction, does not tell you the future, only the result of the path to get there. Getting there is a matter of subjective interpretation.

Delphie is arrogant, convinced she can keep everyone wrapped around her thumb, so the prediction, "Delphie won't be Wanda's Chief for long," obviously means that Wanda will not be on her Side long. No, there were other paths to get there.

But this is a two-part prediction. Olive is still going to be Wanda's Chief, and for a long time, at that.

But I know what Overlord Firebaugh will say. "I lost my Side. But I lost mey Side, not some jumped up Caster that thought she was above her station. I would rather lose my Side trying by my own Rule than keep it as a slave to another."

And there are other ways Wanda can fulfill this Prediction. Goodminton is not necessarily as doomed as Delphie states. It may not be doomed the way Delphie suspects. It is doomed in some way that can fulfill her prediction, but predictions are not abaolute guides to how the future will get to the place predicted.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby name lips » Tue Nov 22, 2011 5:02 pm

Delphi didn't say Wanda would end up switching sides to Haffaton.

She said that Olive Branch was fated to be Wanda's Chief Caster.

The obvious interpretation is that Wanda will switch sides. But we all know how tricky prophesies can be.

Maybe in a separate prophecy she saw Wanda wearing the raiment of Haffaton, and assumed this was confirmation that she would switch sides.

But Wanda was wearing the raiment on her own, without switching sides, and quickly changed the livery on it to Goodminton.

She also said that she was not destined to be Wanda's Chief caster for much longer, and assumed that was because Wanda would switch sides (turns out it was because Wanda was promoted).


If Goodminton captured Branch and made her chief caster, it would also fulfill the prophecy (as we know it).

It would also fulfill the prophecy if a 3rd party entered the stage and conquered both Goodminton and Haffaton, capturing all the casters, and making Branch their chief caster.

Or if both sides fell and the casters escaped to the Magic Kingdom, and were subsequently hired by another side, with Branch placed in charge of Wanda.



We don't know enough. And I think Delphi doesn't know how to interpret her own prophecies very well either. She seems to get brief glimpses of the future and spin her own interpretation on them. Unless there's even more she's not telling us. But the simple fact that she didn't predict Wanda would mess up all her plans says a lot. She really has no clue how things are going to turn out.


Wanda, by the way, should have ordered Delphi to not make any predictions without being ordered to do so. I think the fact that she apparently has free rein to make as many random predictions as she wants is part of the problem. It has caused her to know just enough to be dangerous to herself and her side, but not enough to actually do anything about it.
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Re: Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 010

Postby kiyote » Tue Nov 22, 2011 6:04 pm

I doubt Delphie's predictions can ever come about in anything but the worst possible outcome.

Some serious signamancy at play here: the Delphic Oracle was the one who predicted that Oedipus was going to kill his father and rape his mother. Anything that Oedipus did to avoid that outcome only brought it about. People, you know how this is going to end...
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