Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 027

[Vambann]

What is REALLY interesting here is the revelation that Haffaton (and by translation Fallen-Goodminton) are within an appreciable distance of Gobwin Knob...the possibility of Wanda reclaiming a Capital Site just got a LOT more plausible in my opinion.

I thought that was the case from the first mention of Goodminton, I figured they were located in or near the minty mountains.

[DevilDan]

Cheech and Chong?

I truly love the reversal of the High Elves cliché.

[Mathamancer]

Otoh is an abbreviation, for "on the other hand" (just like FAQ is an abbreviation for "frequently asked questions"). The name of the Earl of Otoh is Chip Tunage ("Chip Tunage, the Earl of Otoh squinted..."). Were these two individuals, it would read "Chip Tunage and the Earl of Otoh squinted..."

Chip could be an intentional distortion of "Cheap". Given the messy black hair in his description, I suspect he may like rocking out.

[NYbear]

What is REALLY interesting here is the revelation that Haffaton (and by translation Fallen-Goodminton) are within an appreciable distance of Gobwin Knob...the possibility of Wanda reclaiming a Capital Site just got a LOT more plausible in my opinion.

Appreciable sure, but not necessarily remotely close. If Haffaton is this massive side as described - who's to say Jillian isn't currently on the complete far side from where Haffaton was engaging with Goodminton.

Russia stretches from the Baltic Sea to the Bering Sea...Wanda's old capital could still be very very far away.

[Kreistor]

It's hard not to foresee that Jillian or Wanda are not going to get captured. It should be Jillian, but that leads to the discovery of FAQ, and Haffaton's continued success. Wanda being captured would seem more likely to lead to Haffaton's downfall. Ultimately, we know Haffaton's advance is reversed.

Let's not forget some of the following details:

1) Gobwin Knob isn't far from here.
2) Saline is still alive.
3) Stanley may be a Piker or Warlord.
4a) Haffaton may have the Arkenhammer. We may see Stanley gain it.
4b) We may see Stanley and his Hammer shred Haffaton.
5) Charlie should have a presence.

As for some of the previous comments:

a) No, I have no memory of anyone stating that Haffaton was Royal or not.
b) The motivation for Royal Sides spawning new Sides is unexplained. It may not be as friendly as pointed out. (Ie. See American Chopper.)
c) If that was intended to be Cheech and Chong, Rob didn't do a very good job of it.

The big one looked around, counting the units. "You got a lot of heavies. Who are you?"

Should have been more like, "Whoa, man, Heavy."

"Yeah, heavy."

"No, man. That's a heavy, man. And another. And another. Man, you got a lot o' heavy. Want a light?" the big one sniggered. "You got a name, man?"

I'm not the best at that lingo, but at best only one sentence makes C&C's grade. Of course, if Rob didn't use them, I'd like to see him go back and edit them in.

[NYbear]

I thought that was the case from the first mention of Goodminton, I figured they were located in or near the minty mountains.

Why? There are many mountains in stupidworld..no need for the ones Goodminton was in to be anywhere near the Minty Mountains.
Also went back and checked, only mention was episode 3 which described them only as "craggy mountains" and snow capped hills.

[ftl]

Well, now that we know where this is geographically (all around FAQ), we know that Haffaton has to fall and be split up into a bunch of sides by the time Book 1 happens.

I bet it'll have something to do with Wanda betraying them for FAQ...

[Kreistor]

Well, now that we know where this is geographically (all around FAQ), we know that Haffaton has to fall and be split up into a bunch of sides by the time Book 1 happens.

No, we don't. As others have pointed out above, Haffaton is described as huge and growing. Haffaton can be on the other side of the continent. In fact, as a Side could still exist.

[vintermann]

Agreed. The name of the prequel is Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) after all. My interpretation of that is that Faq (the inner peace side) will employ superior firepower to protect their bubble kingdom status somehow.

My guess is Wanda is with Haffaton now, but hates them. She is turned to Faq in a process involving Jillian, and starts being really nasty to Olive and friends. Maybe she'll decapitate the side by killing the ruler and heirs - that's the only way I can think of that Faq can wipe out the side without the neighbours ever finding out what happened. I absolutely think Banhammer, for all his pondering, is quite willing to employ superior firepower.

[Zeku]

Otoh.

It does however, state that she believes that it was 'almost certainly' Haffaton.

Seeing as Haffaton's Elves fled the hex, signs point to: No.

It shouldn't make a difference. If she moves first, the Turn starting well after dawn tips Haffaton off. If she moves later, dusk not coming with the end of Turn tips Haffaton off. The alert is raised either way.

She's moved into range of Haffaton's forces. The previous day, she started Turn out of range. The determinations/Predictamancy thing indicates that the Battlespace kicked in because they would encounter Haffaton. That suggests that Side's can share Turns if they just aren't going to fight. Presumably Cities within a day's march of each other share Battlespace regardless, as the choice to attack is always there.

First of all, this was a very helpful explanation. I now understand that sides can share turns if they are nowhere near each other. This wasn't a possibility that occurred to me, but it simplifies things a bit, and explains the difference between the predictamancy of battlespace, and literal "turns." The world itself somehow knows who goes first in a particular area, based on their proximity and other factors.

However! I must insist that the text does not specifically say that the elves fled the hex, nor does it even casually imply that Jillian believes Haffaton is going first. In fact, Jillian is guessing that it will be Haffaton at all, and she clearly isn't familiar with who is sharing the hex she is currently in, since she didn't encounter them last turn. She also doesn't know for sure there will be an encounter at all, there just 'probably' will be.

The "they" would almost certainly mean Haffaton

is a reference to who she believed she would run into, not to who is necessarily going first.

But that secrecy was now distinctly threatened by the fact that someone else had a turn before Faq's today

This is a separate paragraph and a separate idea altogether. Why would she say 'someone else' if she meant Haffaton? There is no reason to believe that Haffaton would mysteriously go first on this turn, since nothing about their nature has changed in any way. Why would someone go first in combat situations, but later in non-combat situations? I'm not challenging this concept, I'm just wondering if this could be a hint to Erfworld's predictamancy. (assuming you are correct)

Now I realize that tying these two paragraphs together, it's pretty clearly stated that Jillian believes that Haffaton is the side going first, but we have no reason to believe that Jillian is intelligent, or able to make such distinctions in her mind. She knows that turn order changes mean trouble for her, we don't know that she's clever enough to decide what exactly causes that trouble.

In the following sentence/paragraph she says:

This was why she hated coming home.

She hates coming home because of the possibility of detection, which means this is always a danger when she returns. But remember that Jillian and her group note the change in turn order this time as an unexpected event. "We're in for it, I guess." If the enemy's presence always causes her to lose her first-turn status, doesn't that mean they wouldn't find the turn order change worth mentioning, as they did this time?

One final comment, your explanation that the enemy would be tipped off by the change in turn order is a very good one, and I'll accept it until I know something else for certain. However, it's just as plausible to say that Haffaton began to control the hex that Jilian was in the previous turn by moving last, didn't see her, and now they are starting another turn with Jillian inactive and exposed a second time to detection. Thus, no one has been tipped off about anything.

Edit: Remember that every time Jillian goes first, the enemy is tipped off to the presence of another force, especially if they are accustomed to going at dawn. This means that Jillian's assumption that not going first would alert others isn't very intelligent. In fact, if the enemy went first like they always did, they wouldn't be tipped off at all. Ie, only Jillian is aware of a problem when she loses her first turn status, and the same is true for the enemy. This is more evidence that Haffaton, (still going first according to your explanation) would know nothing new at all. If this is really how it worked, Jillian should be relived that she didn't go first, since that would mean any enemy nearby would have no idea that there was something to look for.

[Zeku]

The "Battlespace Determinations" being Natural Predictamancy is (in my opinion) a very simple concept, I'm not sure why people seem confused by it.

Multiple Turns happen in a day when 2 or more sides share a Battlespace.
We have previously not known what defines a "Battlespace". Many of us assumed it just meant that 2 sides have units within enough Move of each other that they COULD meet.
But Jillian says:

So 2 sides share a battlespace when Erfworld Predicts that there will be some kind of engagement between them.

So the real topic of discussion there is not the mechanic itself (which again, I think is pretty simply explained in that paragraph....) but rather the feather that Fate-supporters can put in their hat.

While I like your explanation, I'm extremely cautious about the 3rd paragraph. Until I have more evidence, I'm going to assume that natural predictamancy is nothing more than a product, an 'effect' of troop position, troop strength, and other measurable, deterministic factors. There's no cause to assume that the fate of individual units or persons should influence turn order, or that the universe should be aware of the possibility of battles occurring. The universe 'knows' that a battle can occur if the rules of the world allow that to happen, which is sufficient.

If fate is real, it can operate successfully with any turn order at all.

[ftl]

Edit: Remember that every time Jillian goes first, the enemy is tipped off to the presence of another force, especially if they are accustomed to going at dawn. This means that Jillian's assumption that not going first would alert others isn't very intelligent.

No, this isn't how I see it. I think that's what the comment about the natural predictamancy was about - if two sides AREN'T GOING TO ENCOUNTER each other, then they both take their turns at dawn, and do their turns at the same time. But if they ARE going to encounter each other, then somebody has to go first. And that's why Jillian is worried - because the fact that they're taking their turns separately means they're going to run into each other, and that sucks. Not the fact that the turn order itself would alert Haffaton.

The best-case scenario, for Jill, is that they take their turns simultaneously, at dawn, because then they don't interact with each other and there's no chance of detection. Taking their turns separately, regardless of who goes first, is bad news. What happened here was that dawn came, and yet it wasn't their turn. And so Chip said "we're in for it, I guess", recognizing that that meant that there would be an encounter.

Jillian didn't express a preference for whether she would rather run into "Them" on her own turn or on their turn.

pondering the options the world was giving her today. There were two, really: either they'd find her, or she'd find them. Neither was any good.

Also, I don't think she says specifically that she'd rather have her turn at dawn and somebody else's later. Somebody else taking a turn before them merely is a bad thing because it means that somebody WILL find them, and have an opportunity for an encounter.

But that secrecy was now distinctly threatened by the fact that someone else had a turn before Faq's today. That meant that their sides shared a battlespace today; there would be an opportunity for the sides to fight. However much Faq wanted to avoid crossing paths, it was inevitable. Battlespace determinations were Natural Predictamancy. She would be spotted by the enemy and allow them an encounter of some sort, all too close to her own territory.

At the end of the day, simply taking a turn at dawn or not at dawn doesn't give Haffaton THAT much information. If Haffaton takes a turn not-at-dawn, all it tells them is that SOMEBODY else is in the battlespace with them. That doesn't really lead to FAQ being revealed - after all, it's far more likely that Haffaton would jump to the conclusion that "Hey, there's a hidden enemy scout somewhere" rather than "Hey, there's a secret side that nobody knows about". But if FAQ forces actually ENCOUNTER Haffaton forces - which they must, if they're in the same battlespace - then all bets are off.

[ftl]

Rereading it a second time, it does seem that Jillian is in worse shape than I thought at first.

Look at the behavior of the High Elves after talking to Jillian. They counted her forces, and saw that it seemed a little too many for just mercenaries. They pressed her for answers, which she didn't give.

And then there's this exchange.

The thin one tugged on the fat one's sleeve. "Hey man, let's go. Right? Let's just go."

With a few slow steps, then breaking suddenly into a run, they went.

That doesn't sound like two High Elves deciding "nothing to see here, let's move along". That sounds like the thin one realizing they've stumbled upon something serious, and that they better get away before they get croaked. If they believed her about the "mercenaries just passing through", they would have resumed poking around like they had before.

[Oberon]

Jillian really is contemptible. This update is a fine example of that fact. The part about stabbing people and honest money... She is vile.

You must hate the military, with an attitude like that. Erfworld was made for war. Until and unless Parson finds a way to break the system, a Side has only two options: Grow through conquest, or be conquered and die. There doesn't seem to be a point of equilibrium that a Side can hope to attain. FAQ spins the grow through conquest a bit, by hiring out mercenaries to make the smuckers they'd otherwise need to collect as battle spoils or tribute. Or at the very least, FAQ isn't maintaining equilibrium with their three cities, and needs people like Jillian and Hedda in order to survive.

Holding a person in contempt for providing a desperately needed service to her Side (country)? That's what I find contemptible.
She may have a lot of character traits one could attack her on, but being eagerly willing to risk her life to bring in the revenues her king needs cannot be one of them. If that job involves stabbing people, well, the job of a soldier is to kill people for their country. And look, even here she prefers to support the underdogs. The fact that this is also advantageous to maintaining FAQs secret doesn't erase the fact that she feels sympathy towards Sides in dire straights and enjoys rescuing them.

[cheeseaholic]

They can't be too many troops for mercenaries, as they are, in fact, mercenaries.

I assume that one side takes its turn at dawn, and then the second side takes its own turn about a millionth of a second later if there was no encounter, and all the sides move thus. And if there is an encounter then the encounter takes place later in the day so the turn doesn't start until then.

[Zeku]

No, this isn't how I see it. I think that's what the comment about the natural predictamancy was about - if two sides AREN'T GOING TO ENCOUNTER each other, then they both take their turns at dawn, and do their turns at the same time. But if they ARE going to encounter each other, then somebody has to go first. And that's why Jillian is worried - because the fact that they're taking their turns separately means they're going to run into each other, and that sucks. Not the fact that the turn order itself would alert Haffaton.

I sincerely do not know which one of us is correct, but for the time being, I am not assuming that the universe knows that a conflict will take place, and introduces turn orders as a result. I'm assuming that turn orders are introduced as a consequence of battle being possible. If you're correct, then the matter is resolved, other than the explanation for why a particular side goes first. But if I'm correct, the following questions remain:

The side that usually goes first, and still goes first in a battlespace, are they made aware that they are now in a battlespace? Or does that information go only to sides that suddenly have a new turn position? How much information is gained by these shifts in turn position?

And following up on that, is Jillian in the dark every time she continues to go first, even though she is, in fact, now in a battlespace?

Are sides aware of who else is taking their turn? Does a side that always goes last know how many sides went before them? Do they know which sides those are?

How does Faq remain truly hidden if it is in the battlespace of Haffaton? Does the magic that conceals Faq also insure that Faq moves after everyone else? Why then would Jillian be accustomed to moving at dawn?

[Kreistor]

I sincerely do not know which one of us is correct, but for the time being, I am not assuming that the universe knows that a conflict will take place, and introduces turn orders as a result. I'm assuming that turn orders are introduced as a consequence of battle being possible.

Possibilities are covered by Mathamancy. Fate by Predictamancy. If you were right, it would be Natural Mathamancy, not Ntaural Predictamancy.

Sorry.

[ScegfOd]

"Earl Tunage, Chip"
fun

that is all

[ftl]

They can't be too many troops for mercenaries, as they are, in fact, mercenaries.

You're right. I guess what I meant is that it seemed too many for barbarian mercenaries. Since a barbarian would have to pay for that out of a purse. The elf commented "That's a lot of heavies..." - I think he's being skeptical about "Just mercenaries" (i.e. just barbarian mercenaries) having that sort of firepower.

I assume that one side takes its turn at dawn, and then the second side takes its own turn about a millionth of a second later if there was no encounter, and all the sides move thus. And if there is an encounter then the encounter takes place later in the day so the turn doesn't start until then.

I like it! The relativity of time means that if no encounter happens, it seems like turns are simultaneous, but if an encounter does happen, then it appears that they're not.

I sincerely do not know which one of us is correct, but for the time being, I am not assuming that the universe knows that a conflict will take place, and introduces turn orders as a result. I'm assuming that turn orders are introduced as a consequence of battle being possible. If you're correct, then the matter is resolved, other than the explanation for why a particular side goes first.

Well, I thought I had textual basis for that - the fact that Jillian says

However much Faq wanted to avoid crossing paths, it was inevitable. Battlespace determinations were Natural Predictamancy. She would be spotted by the enemy and allow them an encounter of some sort, all too close to her own territory.

Not that "the enemy might pass within five hexes of her or might enter her hex"; that there WOULD be an encounter. And calling it natural predictamancy - that's exactly the discipline that could "know that a conflict will take place". Not lookamancy or mathamancy, which could determine whether contact is POSSIBLE, but predictamancy to determine whether contact will actually happen. I thought that was the major big mechanics revelation from this update, that battlespaces work in this weird predictive way.

The side that usually goes first, and still goes first in a battlespace, are they made aware that they are now in a battlespace? Or does that information go only to sides that suddenly have a new turn position? How much information is gained by these shifts in turn position?

And following up on that, is Jillian in the dark every time she continues to go first, even though she is, in fact, now in a battlespace?

Are sides aware of who else is taking their turn? Does a side that always goes last know how many sides went before them? Do they know which sides those are?

All those are still good questions, and I don't know the answer to them even if the predictive-encounter battlespaces idea is right, but this one

How does Faq remain truly hidden if it is in the battlespace of Haffaton? Does the magic that conceals Faq also insure that Faq moves after everyone else? Why then would Jillian be accustomed to moving at dawn?

does get partially resolved if battlespaces are determined only by which sides will actually encounter each other. Because then if FAQ performs proper evasive maneuvers and uses their predictamancer and avoids the spots where Haffaton is going to go, then they never end up in the same battelspace.

Question still remains about the cities, though. Because the cities can only get veiled, you can't predictively move the city away from where Haffaton will go. So I'm not sure.

Maybe the being-in-a-battlespace isn't a particularly good indicator by itself, regardless of whether you go first or second or whatever - all it tells you is that SOMEONE is around. But if you never see who it is, you'll never know whether it was a scout of some side you're in a war with somewhere out in the other half of your empire. It only gives FAQ any useful information because they're such a small side that they know exactly who they might be running in to.

[Lamech]

Not that "the enemy might pass within five hexes of her or might enter her hex"; that there WOULD be an encounter. And calling it natural predictamancy - that's exactly the discipline that could "know that a conflict will take place". Not lookamancy or mathamancy, which could determine whether contact is POSSIBLE, but predictamancy to determine whether contact will actually happen. I thought that was the major big mechanics revelation from this update, that battlespaces work in this weird predictive way.

Not that there would be an encounter. That "there would be an opportunity for the sides to fight". This is very different. Suppose I have a lookamancer, and a bat. I see 6 sides all in range of my bat. I would need different turns from all of them, or I could have my bat attack on there turn, even if I let my bat sit in hex the whole day. But wait, it gets better. Suppose I got contracts with say permission to use portals all over Erf, and I had that table of omniscience. Or even just units stationed all over Erf. Every day, I could wake up and decide, I'm going to look at side X today, and attack if our turns are at the same time. And now, me and side X are in the same battlespace. You could really scew with someone like that. Or screw with everyone like that.