Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:34 pm

Whispri wrote:I bet ten quatloos that Wanda poses as a different type of Caster while serving at Faq.

I bet ten quatloos that Wanda creates at least one Golem that is powerful enough to count as a Heavy, without the use of Scrolls, prior to Book 1.

And I bet ten quatloos that Jillian pops in Wanda's personal space.


You're on. By the way, I take the first to mean that she poses to everyone - not just to someone, sometime. That I wouldn't bet against, what with Jack around.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Fri Mar 09, 2012 8:01 am

I think I just won that third one. FAQ's acquisition of Wanda doesn't seem like an 'offscreen' kind of thing.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Whispri » Fri Mar 09, 2012 11:21 am

An off screen Wanda/Faq hookup was required for me to win in the first place. Still, it's not lookin' good for me with Haffaton still standing true enough. Doesn't seem polite to drag it out for an absoloute certainty, so yep, the quatloos are yours.

drachefly wrote:You're on. By the way, I take the first to mean that she poses to everyone - not just to someone, sometime. That I wouldn't bet against, what with Jack around.

Concealed from the Side as a whole on a long term basis, yes. Allowing for a co-conspirator/sceptic or two mind.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Mrtyuh » Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:30 am

Given the fact that Wanda told Marie and Jack that she was a Croakamancer, she would need their complicity or their complacency, at the very least, to attempt such subterfuge.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:03 pm

I swear, in the long run, I'm going to get more Q from promptly snatching up the sillier bets than anything else.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Whispri » Sat Mar 10, 2012 1:24 pm

Mrtyuh wrote:Given the fact that Wanda told Marie and Jack that she was a Croakamancer, she would need their complicity or their complacency, at the very least, to attempt such subterfuge.

Recollect, she's altered memories with magick on screen.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Sun Mar 11, 2012 12:15 am

Whispri wrote:An off screen Wanda/Faq hookup was required for me to win in the first place.


I don't see why. If this went to FAQ, where a warlord captured Wanda, then Wanda came to FAQ, then Jillian popped...
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Kreistor » Mon Mar 12, 2012 6:19 am

drachefly wrote:
Whispri wrote:An off screen Wanda/Faq hookup was required for me to win in the first place.


I don't see why. If this went to FAQ, where a warlord captured Wanda, then Wanda came to FAQ, then Jillian popped...


Well, we don't know for certain that Wanda isn't already captured by FAQ, but at this point, it looks likely Wanda is still part of Haffaton. Since Jillian already popped, she can't popin Wanda's presence.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Mon Mar 12, 2012 5:36 pm

Kreistor wrote:
drachefly wrote:
Whispri wrote:An off screen Wanda/Faq hookup was required for me to win in the first place.


I don't see why. If this went to FAQ, where a warlord captured Wanda, then Wanda came to FAQ, then Jillian popped...


Well, we don't know for certain that Wanda isn't already captured by FAQ, but at this point, it looks likely Wanda is still part of Haffaton. Since Jillian already popped, she can't popin Wanda's presence.


'In the first place' refers to as of the end of the previous chapter, back when the bet was offered. Jillian had not necessarily been popped then.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Whispri » Tue Mar 13, 2012 2:20 pm

drachefly wrote:'In the first place' refers to as of the end of the previous chapter, back when the bet was offered. Jillian had not necessarily been popped then.

Well yes, but Part II was going to be from Jillian's point of view, therefore it couldn't have taken place before she Popped. Obviously I underestimated her age somewhat.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Kreistor » Tue Mar 13, 2012 2:38 pm

Whispri wrote:Well yes, but Part II was going to be from Jillian's point of view, therefore it couldn't have taken place before she Popped. Obviously I underestimated her age somewhat.


You're not the only one. The confusion comes from Wanda's description:

http://www.erfworld.com/book-1-archive/?px=%2F082.jpg

Now that I re-read it, I can see that Jillian claims that FAQ was around for a long time, and she describes the whole story with "We". I guess I thought she was talking about the kingdom in general, but now we know she was including herself. Marie must have made that Prediction early in Banhammer's reign.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Swodaems » Mon Mar 19, 2012 1:14 am

I'd like to place a bet on it being revealed that Olive noticed Wanda's studies into other forms of magic besides Croakamancy and encouraged them by the end of book 0.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Mrtyuh » Tue Mar 20, 2012 10:56 pm

Whispri wrote:Recollect, she's altered memories with magick on screen.

It would require Wanda either coincidentally meeting Jack and Marie, alone, before they see her and tell anyone, or it would require them to hold their tongues until she can get them alone and alter their memories, which I think would fall under complacency. We also know that when Marie saw Wanda, she Predicted that Wanda would come to Faq and that Marie would have plenty of work. I now believe she foresaw Faq being mostly surrounded by Haffaton and Wanda coming from them. This is probably something she told Banhammer. Anyway, I was more commenting on the fact that I interpretted the original bet to allow for some people to know, even if she pretends with most. Still, just because it seemed that way to me, I shouldn't put words in other people's mouths.

Whispri wrote:Well yes, but Part II was going to be from Jillian's point of view, therefore it couldn't have taken place before she Popped. Obviously I underestimated her age somewhat.

I half expected Part II to start the same way Part I did, with Jillian popping, from Jillian perspective. If that had happened, it would have been entirely possible for Jillian to have popped in Wanda's presence, just as Wanda popped in Atomic's presence.

On a different note, I'm surprised more people haven't joined Pool #4. We are about to get to Faq, which has been implied to have copious casters. I'm almost positive we'll meet a new caster type there. At this point, virtually every caster type has equal odds. In fact, if anything, drachefly and I have picked the least likely options, given Jillian's view of Hippiemancy. One guess is as good as another.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Sieggy » Thu Mar 22, 2012 8:47 am

I have a feeling that down the line, Jillian & Wanda will hit it off and together wreak unholy destruction & vengeance on Haffaton, and Wanda will wind up taking refuge with Faq. If it becomes known that Wanda turned of her own free will against Haffaton and brought about its destruction, she may have to go into hiding because of her reputation. I suspect units that betray their sides have a REALLY nasty rep . . .
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby drachefly » Thu Mar 22, 2012 9:29 am

So, are you going to offer a decideable bet based on that?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Whispri » Sat Mar 31, 2012 7:29 pm

Mrtyuh wrote:I bet 10q that Cubbins will become the first decrypted caster.

And it's April for me, so I'll take that bet.

Mrtyuh wrote:It would require Wanda either coincidentally meeting Jack and Marie, alone, before they see her and tell anyone, or it would require them to hold their tongues until she can get them alone and alter their memories, which I think would fall under complacency. We also know that when Marie saw Wanda, she Predicted that Wanda would come to Faq and that Marie would have plenty of work. I now believe she foresaw Faq being mostly surrounded by Haffaton and Wanda coming from them. This is probably something she told Banhammer. Anyway, I was more commenting on the fact that I interpretted the original bet to allow for some people to know, even if she pretends with most. Still, just because it seemed that way to me, I shouldn't put words in other people's mouths.

I half expected Part II to start the same way Part I did, with Jillian popping, from Jillian perspective. If that had happened, it would have been entirely possible for Jillian to have popped in Wanda's presence, just as Wanda popped in Atomic's presence.

Well leaving aside possible Magick Kingdom encounters and question marks over Faq's spell security or for that matter, the maximum number of people Wanda could hope to mind wipe in one go... Jack saw her for half a minute or so thousands of turns ago, just how good do you think his memory is? And yes, I am allowing for co-conspirators as I mentioned earlier, I'm just sayin' they aren't mandatory.

Indeed.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Kandarin » Sun Apr 01, 2012 2:27 pm

10 quatloos says that the outcome of the air battle over Spacerock will hinge on the actions of Don's personal bat.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby vintermann » Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:51 am

Kandarin wrote:10 quatloos says that the outcome of the air battle over Spacerock will hinge on the actions of Don's personal bat.


I'll take this one, Kandarin.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Mrtyuh » Tue Apr 10, 2012 7:25 pm

Wow, I can't believe it is already April 10. I got so caught up in the trainwreck that was Mass Effect 3, I completely lost track of time. Anyway, it's a new month, and I have 10 new quatloos to bet.

First, to restate open bets that are still available:

I bet 30q that before Erfworld wraps up, the Arkendish will be used to make a 4- or 5-way link of the 4 Attuned wielders of the Arkentools and perhaps Parson as well. Since this would probably happen very close to the end, there would be no time limit other than the end of the comic.

I bet 5q that Wanda will seduce Marie before the fall of Faq.

I bet 10q that Dame Branch will not be alive when Wanda arrives at Faq.

I bet 10q that Caesar will become Ruler of Transylvito before the end of Book 3.

I bet 10q that Ashna will be summoned to Erfworld, and she and a fitter Parson will become an item.

Now for new bets:

I bet 5q that King County's honor duel was against Haffaton, and it will play an important role in Haffaton's downfall.

I bet 5q that K.C. survived the fall. I’ll forfeit the bet if he isn’t seen or mentioned by the end of Book 3.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread

Postby Swodaems » Thu Apr 12, 2012 12:32 pm

Mrtyuh wrote:I bet 5q that K.C. survived the fall. I’ll forfeit the bet if he isn’t seen or mentioned by the end of Book 3.

I'll take that one. It's my belief that his dust is seen here. (In the 12th panel, the middle one of the bottom row, there is a dark humanoid shape under the fallen beam. We know of only 3 decrypted in the assault pre-fall, and Ossomer and Sylvia have both been accounted for.)

I'm offering up another bet: Slately blames Stanley for the loss of Holly Shortcake, his former lover and chief caster. 10q, with the bet being forfeit if we don't get an full explanation for her capture/croaking by the end of book 3.
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