Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

[Whispri]

On a different note, I'm surprised more people haven't joined Pool #4. We are about to get to Faq, which has been implied to have copious casters. I'm almost positive we'll meet a new caster type there. At this point, virtually every caster type has equal odds. In fact, if anything, drachefly and I have picked the least likely options, given Jillian's view of Hippiemancy. One guess is as good as another.

Hmm... I suppose I'll put ten quatloos on a Weirdomancer being next, weird is good.

I'd like to bet 30 quatloos that Wanda will reestablish her Side at the Site of Spacerock. Annnnd a further 10 that the 'Stay alive at any price' order Parson gave to Wanda is part of why she does so.

I bet twenty quatloos that Sizemore will become Gobwin Knob's Chief Caster after Wanda leaves the post.

I bet ten quatloos that Wanda will be the one who casts that scroll that Parson was given in the Magic Kingdom.

These bets are still open, I can go for smaller amounts if anyone wants to.

[drachefly]

I concede on the update of the tower falling.

[drachefly]

And pool 4 is done!

[Fabo]

Wow, I can't believe it is already April 10. I got so caught up in the trainwreck that was Mass Effect 3, I completely lost track of time. Anyway, it's a new month, and I have 10 new quatloos to bet.

First, to restate open bets that are still available:

I bet 30q that before Erfworld wraps up, the Arkendish will be used to make a 4- or 5-way link of the 4 Attuned wielders of the Arkentools and perhaps Parson as well. Since this would probably happen very close to the end, there would be no time limit other than the end of the comic.

I bet 5q that Wanda will seduce Marie before the fall of Faq.

I bet 10q that Dame Branch will not be alive when Wanda arrives at Faq.

I bet 10q that Caesar will become Ruler of Transylvito before the end of Book 3.

I bet 10q that Ashna will be summoned to Erfworld, and she and a fitter Parson will become an item.

Now for new bets:

I bet 5q that King County's honor duel was against Haffaton, and it will play an important role in Haffaton's downfall.

I bet 5q that K.C. survived the fall. I’ll forfeit the bet if he isn’t seen or mentioned by the end of Book 3.

Suppose those are still open. Suppose I have a starting pool of 100.

I take you on bet one, I bet 30 future q that there wont be a link between attuned.

I take you on bet two, I bet 5 current q that there wont be seducing between Marie and Wanda.

I take you on bet five, on ammended terms: I bet you 10 future q that Ashna+Parson will not become a thing by the end of book 3, erfworld or stupidworld.

Also, I propose to bet 10 q (current) that no person from Parsons gaming circle will be summoned to Erfworld, lets say by end of Book 3, issue 1.

I have therefore 85 current q available, with 5 q in a bet with you and 10 q offered in a bet by me, 30 future q in a bet by the end of Erfworld and possibly 10 future q in a bet by the end of B3 (if you accept).

[BLANDCorporatio]

I bet 20 quatloos on Slately living through the Archon battle.

[five-thirteen]

I bet 10 quatloos that Charlie has veiled Archons in Jetstone airspace.

[drachefly]

I'll take that, if you mean Spacerock. If you mean anywhere in Jetstone, airspace, forget it.

[0beron]

Okay I figure it is about time I jump in on this given how much supposing I do.

So here are bets I see currently active that I would like to jump in on (in the order I see them listed on the first post):

• Drachefly/Myrtuh 5q: I bet Wanda will not make Master Class before reaching FAQ
• Myrtuh/Oberon 10q: I bet that Un-Tommy will decay until ceasing to exist (if not stated by comic's end, I will assume the bet is off)
• Myrtuh/Drachefly 5q: I bet Tram will WILLINGLY turn to GK, rather than being captured. (a third variant on your bet, if that's allowed)
• Whispri/Drachefly 10q: I bet Wanda will not hide being a Croakamancer while serving FAQ
• Myrtuh/Whispri 10q: I bet Cubbins will become the first decrytped caster

And lastly, since it's the theory I'm probably most known for, I'll put up a 20q bet that the 4th 'Tool uses Signamancy.

[0beron]

And actually, here's another topic that is being hotly debated....the "mechanics" of casters popping and what type they are. I may offer a "heavier" bet later about the mechanic as a whole, but for now I want to bet on one of the elements being debated as part of this whole question:

I bet 5q that all 8 casters FAQ had (listed in Book 0 Episode 30) popped as FAQ units, and were not captured or hired. If there is no result by the end of Book 0, then nobody wins obviously.

[drachefly]

Hmm. You're on, on that last.

I'm not sure how you want to jump in on the others - which side are you duplicating and looking for someone to take up the opposite position?

[five-thirteen]

Yeah, just Spacerock, I should have been more specific.

[Whispri]

Okay I figure it is about time I jump in on this given how much supposing I do.

So here are bets I see currently active that I would like to jump in on (in the order I see them listed on the first post):

• Drachefly/Myrtuh 5q: I bet Wanda will not make Master Class before reaching FAQ
• Myrtuh/Oberon 10q: I bet that Un-Tommy will decay until ceasing to exist (if not stated by comic's end, I will assume the bet is off)
• Myrtuh/Drachefly 5q: I bet Tram will WILLINGLY turn to GK, rather than being captured. (a third variant on your bet, if that's allowed)
• Whispri/Drachefly 10q: I bet Wanda will not hide being a Croakamancer while serving FAQ
• Myrtuh/Whispri 10q: I bet Cubbins will become the first decrytped caster

And lastly, since it's the theory I'm probably most known for, I'll put up a 20q bet that the 4th 'Tool uses Signamancy.

I haven't the spare quatloos to make those bets with multiple persons.

I might go for the Wanda's Mastery one if it was a little clearer what you were betting and if the original betters showed no interest.

[0beron]

Oh yes, I suppose I didn't really think about how "jumping in" on a bet would affect the number of Qs haha. I guess I figured it would become sort of a pool, but then that's unfair if I win because the original better gets less Q than they had put in. So nevermind!

So looks like Drachefly has taken my 5q bet that all of FAQ's 8 casters are native to the side, not captured or hired.

Anyone interested in my 20q bet that the 4th Arkentool uses Signamancy?

[drachefly]

I can duplicate my bet on any of those you want. I'd also take the 'yes' side of the Cubbins bet.

[0beron]

Well here are my position on the ones you were involved in, let me know if you take any on the opposite.

• 5q: I bet Wanda will not make Master Class before reaching FAQ
• 5q: I bet Tram will WILLINGLY turn to Parson's side, rather than being captured.
• 5q: I bet that Wanda will not hide being a Croakamancer while serving FAQ (this is a change to the amount, down from 10q)

As for the Cubbins bit, I also believe he will be the first Decrypted Caster, so we're in agreement :p

[gameboy1234]

I bet 20 quatloos on Slately living through the Archon battle.

One million quatloos says you're wrong. Slately is toast by the end of this book (book 2, part 2, or whatever it is).

[five-thirteen]

Anyone interested in my 20q bet that the 4th Arkentool uses Signamancy?

I'll take that for 20.

[drachefly]

I bet 20 quatloos on Slately living through the Archon battle.

One million quatloos says you're wrong. Slately is toast by the end of this book (book 2, part 2, or whatever it is).

Shall I put you down for your limit of 100 to BLAND's 20?

Well here are my position on the ones you were involved in, let me know if you take any on the opposite.
...
5q: I bet Tram will WILLINGLY turn to Parson's side, rather than being captured.
...

Okay, I'll take that. I think I have enough exposure on the other issues.
I would have taken that at 1:2 odds...

[0beron]

Drache, 5-13 took my 20q bet about the 4th 'Tool, so you should update the OP.

Now, for a new bet,
I bet 10q that the reason Jillian was called back to court is directly related to Wanda or Olive (not just Haffaton in general). And I propose the bet not be called until the END of Book 0, since it is possible I initially appear wrong but we later find out I was right.

[five-thirteen]

...and I concede the "archons in the airspace" bet. Charlie's retrieval team has to be close, but the latest comic has me convinced they're not at spacerock