0beron wrote:In the words of Einstein, "Make everything simple as possible, but not simpler". So in that spirit I'll have to agree with Marbit, Random w/ no Duplicates is the simplest model that still fits the (albiet limited) data.
As for OPINION, I think it's Random with non-equal probabilities for all caster types, no dupes....but the Titans "mess with the dice" every so often. But there's not enough data to get into something that complex, and I doubt there ever WILL be. This is probably one of those things we will never "figure out", it will either be told to us, or left a mystery.
Given that Rob is a Titan, an alternate simple explanation is that the Titans have selected caster pops that satisfy Fate, to the extent that Fate cares, while also attempting to obscure what Fate cares about by letting character concepts and pop culture references determine the casters not required by Fate.
It seems to me that someone who asserts that the non-Fate-driven pops come from a process of "(a) roll a die to determine caster type, then (b) find a clever reference to fit that caster type" should provide evidence of that process, since it is clearly more work for the Titans than the process "(a) think of a clever reference".
If you feel this is unsatisfyingly meta, consider the evidence that the in-universe concept of signamancy extends to pop culture references that don't make sense in-universe: the dog food Knights getting chewed up, Sammy Haggar rocking, the Arkentool attuners having Stupidworld corporate tool-related names, Lloyd looking like the Deadly Duplicator, etc. Even if Parson's mind did not create Erfworld, it is clear that Parson and Erfworld found each other through a Parson-centric version of the anthropic principle
, and that shouldn't be ignored when trying to simulate what the Titans have built.
I haven't looked at the Erfworld simulation game threads, but perhaps instead of using a table of caster type probabilities, such a game should look up random biographical pages on sites like Wikipedia, the IMDB, and Allmusic.com and apply a mapping of profession/genre/etc. to caster type. (Allmusic.com in particular has "mood" keywords that can map to personalities that can be matched up to caster type stereotypes.) That won't give the same probabilities as Rob's brain, but it might capture the spirit better.