Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

[drachefly]

That was the procedure. I could take it, but I'd rather not put so much on it. How about I take 10q of it, leaving 10q over for someone else (i.e. you split it into two bets for 10q each)? Sound good?

[0beron]

I'll take the other side of the bet with Drache. I don't think the 4th tool will go the Sizemore.

[Mrtyuh]

Surprise, surprise. I actually got a day off. I apologize for my long absence, but my life has devolved into an endless cycle of working and sleeping over the last few months. Given how slowly I type, it doesn’t leave nearly enough time for posting. Anyway, hi everyone. I missed you all.

Three months have passed, so I have a whopping 30 quatloos to bet. I did win Pool #4, but I’m also conceding my bet to Oberon concerning un-Tommy. The slim remaining chance I had on that was if part 2 of Book 0 had opened with Wanda fighting a guerrilla war against Haffaton. Even if there is a discussion with Wanda later than states that is exactly what happened, I think it’s a bit tacky to not concede at this point. So, that’s a wash. I’ll start with new bets:

I bet 10q that Charlie played a significant role in Haffaton’s downfall and that in turn led to the Hippiemancers getting in bed with the Thinkamancers, so to speak.

I bet 5q that Parson and Sylvia will hook up at least once before the End of Book 4.

For some fun, I’ll bet 5q that Barry survived the fall. Bet void if Rob hasn’t acknowledged the joke by the end of Book 3. (Sometimes you just need to do something silly.)

I bet 10q that Ansom will not be turned while Faq’s prisoner.

Also, for the record, I was going to bet the following:

I'll bet 10q that Ossomer will get his wish to meet his end while fighting for Jetstone at Drystone by the End of Book 4.

That bet is now void, but I did want to be upfront about being completely wrong about something.

Now, to restate open bets that are still available:

I bet 10q that Dame Branch will not be alive when Wanda arrives at Faq.

I bet 10q that Caesar will become Ruler of Transylvito before the end of Book 3.

I bet 10q that Ashna will be summoned to Erfworld, and she and a fitter Parson will become an item. (if fabo doesn't accept my adjusted end date.)

I bet 5q that King County's honor duel was against Haffaton, and it will play an important role in Haffaton's downfall.

I'll take that one. It's my belief that his dust is seen here. (In the 12th panel, the middle one of the bottom row, there is a dark humanoid shape under the fallen beam. We know of only 3 decrypted in the assault pre-fall, and Ossomer and Sylvia have both been accounted for.)

I'm offering up another bet: Slately blames Stanley for the loss of Holly Shortcake, his former lover and chief caster. 10q, with the bet being forfeit if we don't get an full explanation for her capture/croaking by the end of book 3.

While Jack stated, "All of these dwagons are alive, as are most of the riders...., I don't recall anything which indicated that the three warlords were the only decrypted riders. We'd had updates from both Sylvia's and Ossomer's perspective before the fall, but we've never had one from K.C.'s, and, with the exception of his first appearance, he's only been mentioned in passing, so I don't know if his absence at this point has any significance. Still, I must applaud you catching that dusted rider. I completely missed it. I also have to give props to Xin for her attention to detail.

As for Holly, no bet, even if I had any quatloos left. Given Vinny's statement that "...[W]hat'd he do to Jetstone? Croak a few field units? And suddenly you stop everything to wipe him out?" I think it's entirely possible you're right. It would certainly add a new dimension to Slately.

I take you on bet five, on ammended terms: I bet you 10 future q that Ashna+Parson will not become a thing by the end of book 3, erfworld or stupidworld.

Also, I propose to bet 10 q (current) that no person from Parsons gaming circle will be summoned to Erfworld, lets say by end of Book 3, issue 1.

I have therefore 85 current q available, with 5 q in a bet with you and 10 q offered in a bet by me, 30 future q in a bet by the end of Erfworld and possibly 10 future q in a bet by the end of B3 (if you accept).

I won’t take those by the end of Book 3. I think Book 3 will deal with other local groups, such as Transylvito, Carpool and Haggar. While I think it will happen, I doubt it will happen that quickly. Also, I think it will probably be Parson’s enemies that summon them, so there will be a period where they are on different sides. So, I’ll take the first bet if we move the end date to the end of Book 7. I’ll take the second bet if we move the date to the end of Book 5, Issue 1. Also, I don’t have any current quatloos, so I’ll use future ones, but I’ll refrain from betting in August to make them current, unless I happen to win any bets in the meantime. Are these terms acceptable to you?

Okay I figure it is about time I jump in on this given how much supposing I do.

• Myrtuh/Oberon 10q: I bet that Un-Tommy will decay until ceasing to exist (if not stated by comic's end, I will assume the bet is off)

Yeah, I concede that bet. I should have conceded after Book 0, Episode 26, but I think Episode 28 put the final nail in that one. If I had been around, I would have conceded then. As for the others, I’m currently tapped out.

I'm like, 90% sure right now, anyway, if they came into the fight, Charlie would use them to croak Slatey's team first. Slatey only used hat magic to make contact with Don King so it's a safe bet that Charlie would get away with it. If the remaining Decrypted Archons turned to Charlescomm, or at least didn't attack his "recon team" he'd initiate some kind of turning or, failing that, capture them outright. He'd get what he wants* and be able to deny GK the new units Wanda would Decrypt.


*assuming he wants a Decrypted Archon

It seems hightly unlikely to me that Charlie has archons in Spacerock's airspace for a few reasons. With all the warlords and archons in the airspace that can see veiled units, they probably would have been spotted. Secondly, if any of Charlie's archons are there, they can't move until the start of the next day. They can't grab anything and run. If Spacerock falls, any Jetstone archers in the city will immediately become prisoners. Wanda can then croak and reanimate them, meaning Charlie's archons would be in the same prediciment that Gobwin Knob's forces were in before Parson turned this into a food fight.

As for Olive, if Myrtuh contests it, I'll retract the and make a specific weighted offer: a bet with terms equivalent to the terms of pool, my 50 to your 2. Note that the bet did not require her to be ON SCREEN. Simply the update during which the assertion is known to be true.

I was working under the assumption that it required her to be ON SCREEN. That being said, I did not ask for clarification, nor did I stipulate any caveats. I would argue, in such a situation, the person offering the original bet is the final arbitrator of those details, since they are the only one capable of knowing their own intent. I would further purpose that be the basis for resolving any future disputes. So, if drachefly’s intention was what was stated above, vis-à-vis the means of revelation, then my assumptions are irrelevant, and I’ll concede the bet.

I don't think it'd be fair to call this a loss for you. I don't think we'll ever know exactly what happened to Tommy, and it's quite possible that he neither 'timed out' and dusted nor fell/dusted in battle.

No, I concede. The implication with how part 1 ended, with a mention two updates later of Wanda serving Haffaton, is that either Wanda was captured or surrendered the same turn Goodminton fell. Either un-Tommy was dusted, or he still existed when Wanda "left Goodminton's service." While there remains a slight possiblity that some future update will have Wanda recount her capture by Haffaton and that may have involved a period of her waging a guerrilla war using her uncroaked, I think it's bad form to hold out for that. So, as I said, I concede the bet. Still, I appreciate your willingness to let it continue.

So, if fabo accepts, I'll be using my August quatloos for that bet. I have two more 10q bets, which I'll make in September and October. Then, unless I happen to get any other ideas for bets or see one from somebody else's I can't resist, I'll use November through January to cover my future bets (since I really don't like being in debt). That is assuming I don't win any, but considering that I'm 10q in the hole by my count, I'll need to win more than that to be able to do anything else.

[SNfinity]

That was the procedure. I could take it, but I'd rather not put so much on it. How about I take 10q of it, leaving 10q over for someone else (i.e. you split it into two bets for 10q each)? Sound good?

I'll take the other side of the bet with Drache. I don't think the 4th tool will go the Sizemore.

It's a bet, then.

[drachefly]

Myrtuh - if you'd understood the terms of the bet not to be ON SCREEN, but simply by indication, would you have not made the bet? It may not matter, as I expect we'll encounter Wanda in person on my side of the cutoff of episode 44, anyway.

As far as the limit is concerned, you can go further since there's no way all of those will resolve this month.

[Mrtyuh]

Myrtuh - if you'd understood the terms of the bet not to be ON SCREEN, but simply by indication, would you have not made the bet? It may not matter, as I expect we'll encounter Wanda in person on my side of the cutoff of episode 44, anyway.

As far as the limit is concerned, you can go further since there's no way all of those will resolve this month.

It is more along the lines that it never occurred to me that it could happen off screen. In my head, it happened ON SCREEN, but I guess that's more of an indication of lack of imagination on my part. While I expected an intermission, I didn't expect the time jump that accompanied it. If I had considered the possibility, it may have affected whether or not I made the bet, because it would have meant I foresaw everything unfolding differently, but that's irrelevent. I did make the bet, and I concede that I lost. I was making the statement more to try to establish a precedent for the future than try to argue against your winning. There may be times where bets are resolved by events unfolding in an unexpected manner or because the person accepting the bet interpretted the wording a certain way. In such cases, I think it is the intent of the one making the bet that should take precedence, assuming the person accepting the bet did not ask for any clarification or stipulations. I'm not sure when it may happen, but I've already demonstrated a lack of imagination.

As for my limit, I did state that I would make bets if I saw some I couldn't resist or thought of another I really liked, but, generally speaking, I prefer not to be in (future) debt, and barring something juicy, I'll work on getting that paid down.

[GJC]

Anyone up for a 10q bet that, by the end of Jetstone's turn, Tramemnis will be ruler of Jetstone?

[drachefly]

Only at VERY short odds.

[Lamech]

Anyone up for a 10q bet that, by the end of Jetstone's turn, Tramemnis will be ruler of Jetstone?

I'll take the bet! Erm... you're betting Tram will be the ruler right, and I get the 10q when he doesn't become the ruler?

[GJC]

Anyone up for a 10q bet that, by the end of Jetstone's turn, Tramemnis will be ruler of Jetstone?

I'll take the bet! Erm... you're betting Tram will be the ruler right, and I get the 10q when he doesn't become the ruler?

Correct!
Just a point of clarification, if the Slately still in the air above Spacerock is a clone that expires at the end of the turn, then, in my interpretation, whoever succeeds him would still be becoming ruler "by the end of Jetstone's turn".
Is that agreeable?

[kriss1989]

I bet 10q that Caesar will become Ruler of Transylvito before the end of Book 3.

I'll take that bet.

[drachefly]

I bet my 10q to your 20q that Jetstone holds Spacerock as of the start of their next turn.

Also, I take Mrtyuh's Parson/Sylvia bet

Also, fixed spelling Mrtyuh's name, throughout top post.

[Lamech]

Anyone up for a 10q bet that, by the end of Jetstone's turn, Tramemnis will be ruler of Jetstone?

I'll take the bet! Erm... you're betting Tram will be the ruler right, and I get the 10q when he doesn't become the ruler?

Correct!
Just a point of clarification, if the Slately still in the air above Spacerock is a clone that expires at the end of the turn, then, in my interpretation, whoever succeeds him would still be becoming ruler "by the end of Jetstone's turn".
Is that agreeable?

Yup! I'll be surprised if Tram even becomes the heir...

[GJC]

In that case, we 'ave a bet!

Edit: And I'll take Drachefly's bet at 10:15.

[Nnelg]

I bet 10q that Charlie played a significant role in Haffaton’s downfall and that in turn led to the Hippiemancers getting in bed with the Thinkamancers, so to speak.

I bet 10q that Ansom will not be turned while Faq’s prisoner.

I bet 5q that King County's honor duel was against Haffaton, and it will play an important role in Haffaton's downfall.

I'll take these bets, if I didn't miss someone else taking them -with one modification. If Ansom doesn't turn to or escape from Faq directly, or get dusted by a unit of Faq or GK; but instead is transferred to or dusted by a third party (like Charlescomm or Transylvito) or put 'on ice' in any fashion, then the bet is void. Deal?


Bets of my own I'd like to offer:

10q that Faq's new heir(ess?) would've made King Banhammer proud. Additional 5q that friction occurs between Jillian and her new heir due to differing personalities. 3q that it's a girl, 2q that she's a caster.

5q that Lloyd doesn't make it out of the battlespace alive; 5q that Ace does.

1q that Faq (new or old) is at one point attacked by a large force of twolls or fire-based units.

5q that Parson does not get to meet any non-GK warlords in person by the end of Book 2.

5q that if the situation in MK deteriorates, Jack can't fool the Thinkamancers. Offer expires next MK update.

5q that someone important (ex. Parson, Wanda, Jack, etc.) defects from GK by the end of Book 2.


That comes out to 66 Quatloos of bets, if I'm not mistaken.

[Balerion]

5q that someone important (ex. Parson, Wanda, Jack, etc.) defects from GK by the end of Book 2..

I'll take that one

[GJC]

5q that someone important (ex. Parson, Wanda, Jack, etc.) defects from GK by the end of Book 2..

I'll take that one

If you did, you'd lose. Book 2 is already over, and Ossomer defected to Jetstone at the end. : P

[Keighvin1]

Book 2 is not over, and I think they mean someone who was a part of GK while originally alive.

[Balerion]

5q that someone important (ex. Parson, Wanda, Jack, etc.) defects from GK by the end of Book 2..

I'll take that one

If you did, you'd lose. Book 2 is already over, and Ossomer defected to Jetstone at the end. : P

I will admit I presumed that Ossomer did not count (ie wasn't someone important), for the simple reason that you can't offer a bet whose conditions were already met

[GJC]

Book 2 is not over, and I think they mean someone who was a part of GK while originally alive.

Herp derp. The second part makes sense, and for some reason I thought he was talking about issue 2. Ossomer turned at the end of issue 2, we're not in issue 3. Both of book 2, of course.
M'bad.