Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

[drachefly]

sigh I recommended that people put time limits on their bets and I keep forgetting to do it. All of my bet offers above this post are void as of the 14th of July 2012.

[Nnelg]

I will admit I presumed that Ossomer did not count (ie wasn't someone important), for the simple reason that you can't offer a bet whose conditions were already met

Oh, that reminds me... I forgot someone important: Ansom. I won't hold you to it if he defects though, because I didn't list him and wasn't thinking of him anyways. Also, I realized I failed to specify if being turned counts as "defecting"... Verbatim it isn't, but what would you think?

sigh I recommended that people put time limits on their bets and I keep forgetting to do it. All of my bet offers above this post are void as of the 14th of July 2012.

In that case, I would like to state that all my bets without time frames are considered closed the instant any update with relevant information comes out unless reposted.

For example, this means that my open bets about who escapes the Spacerock battlespace alive will most likely be void next comic update.


On another note, I realized I made a mistake in one of my bets: when I said "Cubbins", I meant to say "Lloyd"; I just got the names mixed up. According to OP rules I'll leave this post out for an hour before going back to edit my mistake.

[Balerion]

Oh, that reminds me... I forgot someone important: Ansom. I won't hold you to it if he defects though, because I didn't list him and wasn't thinking of him anyways. Also, I realized I failed to specify if being turned counts as "defecting"... Verbatim it isn't, but what would you think?

Nah, Ansom was included on my list of people (and is the most likely one to cost me in my opinion). I figured you were giving examples, not the exhaustive list. I would say any event that leads to an important GK unit no longer being part of the GK side it counts as defecting.

[Lamech]

Oh, that reminds me... I forgot someone important: Ansom. I won't hold you to it if he defects though, because I didn't list him and wasn't thinking of him anyways. Also, I realized I failed to specify if being turned counts as "defecting"... Verbatim it isn't, but what would you think?

Nah, Ansom was included on my list of people (and is the most likely one to cost me in my opinion). I figured you were giving examples, not the exhaustive list. I would say any event that leads to an important GK unit no longer being part of the GK side it counts as defecting.

Well being captured presumably doesn't count.

[Balerion]

Well being captured presumably doesn't count.

My assumption on capturing was that the upkeep costs shifted to the capturer, but that the unit was still on the same side as before. otherwise you wouldn't need to turn captured units.

[Nnelg]

Oh, that reminds me... I forgot someone important: Ansom. I won't hold you to it if he defects though, because I didn't list him and wasn't thinking of him anyways. Also, I realized I failed to specify if being turned counts as "defecting"... Verbatim it isn't, but what would you think?

Nah, Ansom was included on my list of people (and is the most likely one to cost me in my opinion). I figured you were giving examples, not the exhaustive list. I would say any event that leads to an important GK unit no longer being part of the GK side it counts as defecting.

Okay, just as long as we're clear on that. I was only worried because Ansom is in a much... 'stickier' (no pun intended) situation than anyone on the list, and I figured if I'd all but forgotten he was a part of GK already then somebody else (namely you) very well could have as well.


Reposting open bets, with timeframes and one modification:

Spoiler: show

The four following bets expire when Jillian's heir pops:

• 10q that Faq's new heir(ess?) would've made King Banhammer proud.
• Additional 5q that friction occurs between Jillian and her new heir due to differing personalities.
• 3q that it's a girl.
• 2q that she's a caster.
  
  The two following bets expire next Spacerock update unless reposted:
• 5q that Lloyd doesn't make it out of Spacerock's battlespace alive
• 5q that Ace does.
  
  
• 1q to 2q that a forum trolling/flame war reference is made during a battle at Faq (either during the fall of old Faq, or some future siege of new Faq).
  Note: this replaces my previous offer "that Faq (new or old) is at one point attacked by a large force of twolls or fire-based units", effective 1 hour from the time of this post.
  
  
• 5q that Parson does not get to meet any non-GK warlords in person by the end of Book 2. Expires next Parson update unless reposted.
  
  
• 5q that if the situation in MK deteriorates, Jack can't fool the Thinkamancers. Expires next MK update unless reposted.

[drachefly]

In that case, it looks like you have no bet. But... if you sweeten the odds to, say, 2:1, I'll take the 'yes, there'll be a defection' side of the bet. Ansom would be needed to bring it up to 1:1 for me.

[Nnelg]

In that case, it looks like you have no bet. But... if you sweeten the odds to, say, 2:1, I'll take the 'yes, there'll be a defection' side of the bet. Ansom would be needed to bring it up to 1:1 for me.

Huh? I don't understand... The bet between me and Balerion is still on and, unless I've sorely misinterpreted him, we're in agreement that Ansom does count.


Speaking of which, back on my first post on the thread I accepted two of Mrtyuh's bets unconditionally:

• "10q that Charlie played a significant role in Haffaton’s downfall and that in turn led to the Hippiemancers getting in bed with the Thinkamancers, so to speak."
• "5q that King County's honor duel was against Haffaton, and it will play an important role in Haffaton's downfall."

The only bet I had conditions on was "10q that Ansom will not be turned while Faq’s prisoner.", so could you put those other two up on the OP please?

For reference, here are the conditions I put on that bet:

Spoiler: show

If Ansom doesn't turn to or escape from Faq directly, or get dusted by a unit of Faq or GK; but instead is transferred to or dusted by a third party (like Charlescomm or Transylvito) or put 'on ice' in any fashion, then the bet is void. Deal?

Also, the most up-to-date listing of my open bets:
Reposting open bets, with timeframes and one modification:

Spoiler: show

All bets expire as soon as any relevant information appears in the comic or a text update, or when the specified conditions are met. Any bets reposted here can be considered valid regardless of their conditions being met prior to the date of reposting, although they will still expire the next time the conditions are met.


Expiring when Jillian's heir pops:

• 10q that Faq's new heir(ess?) would've made King Banhammer proud.
• 5q that friction occurs between Jillian and her new heir due to differing personalities.
• 3q that it's a girl.
• 2q that she's a caster.

Expiring next Spacerock update:

• 5q that Lloyd doesn't make it out of Spacerock's battlespace alive
• 5q that Ace does.

Expiring at the end of Episode 0 (for lack of a better milestone):

• 1q to 2q that a forum trolling/flame war reference is made during a battle at Faq (either during the fall of old Faq, or some future siege of new Faq).

Expiring next Parson update:

• 5q that Parson does not get to meet any non-GK warlords in person by the end of Book 2.

Expiring next MK update:

• 5q that if the situation in MK deteriorates, Jack can't fool the Thinkamancers.

[drachefly]

Ah, I misread something in there. I'll put it up.

I'll take your heir gender bet.

[effataigus]

I bet 20 quatloos on Slately living through the Archon battle.

One million quatloos says you're wrong. Slately is toast by the end of this book (book 2, part 2, or whatever it is).

Shall I put you down for your limit of 100 to BLAND's 20?

Well this is interesting The fight isn't over yet, but as an independent observer I'd say you're both right (so far).

I came on to post that Charlescomm is going to be the major instigator of Haffaton's demise, but I see now that that bet has been made and accepted already.

[0beron]

......um....wut?

Last edited by effataigus on Thu Jun 30, 2011 9:31 am, edited 239044 times in total.

How...what...did you do?

[drachefly]

I bet 20 quatloos on Slately living through the Archon battle.

One million quatloos says you're wrong. Slately is toast by the end of this book (book 2, part 2, or whatever it is).

Shall I put you down for your limit of 100 to BLAND's 20?

Well this is interesting The fight isn't over yet, but as an independent observer I'd say you're both right (so far).

By my interpretation, gameboy would have won. Copy-Slately is not Slately, much as Copy-Rezo didn't have something super-seriously wrong with his eyes (just garden-variety seriously wrong).

[0beron]

By my interpretation, gameboy would have won. Copy-Slately is not Slately, much as Copy-Rezo didn't have something super-seriously wrong with his eyes (just garden-variety seriously wrong).

It still hasn't been explained how Dittomancy actually works in a case like this, so it's impossible to know who wins until that is either explained, or both Slately(s) croak in combat.

[effataigus]

......um....wut?

Last edited by effataigus on Thu Jun 30, 2011 9:31 am, edited 239044 times in total.

How...what...did you do?

In the end, no amount of editing could bring her back

[0beron]

In the end, no amount of editing could bring her back

OOOOOOH that's your siggy! I thought that was the actual post edit count lol and I was super confused. Nice Time Machine reference though, if that's what you meant by bringing her back".

[drachefly]

By my interpretation, gameboy would have won. Copy-Slately is not Slately, much as Copy-Rezo didn't have something super-seriously wrong with his eyes (just garden-variety seriously wrong).

It still hasn't been explained how Dittomancy actually works in a case like this, so it's impossible to know who wins until that is either explained, or both Slately(s) croak in combat.

I suggest that since the bet was never finalized, we not lose too much sleep over this.

[0beron]

oooooh, I hadn't been paying close enough attention, I thought it was an official bet that had been finalized. My b!

[Nnelg]

Reposting a listing of bets, with one more:

• 5q that the Arkendish has the capability to contact "stupidworld". (I forfeit if positive confirmation is not met by end of Erfworld.)

I still am waiting for confirmation of a bet with Mrtyuh, whom I offered to accept the following bet with conditions:

Spoiler: show

I bet 10q that Ansom will not be turned while Faq’s prisoner.

[Conditons:] If Ansom doesn't turn to or escape from Faq directly, or get dusted by a unit of Faq or GK; but instead is transferred to or dusted by a third party (like Charlescomm or Transylvito) or put 'on ice' in any fashion, then the bet is void. Deal?

Most up-to-date listing of my open bets:

Spoiler: show

All bets expire as soon as any relevant information appears in the comic or a text update, or when the specified conditions are met. Any bets reposted here can be considered valid regardless of their conditions being met prior to the date of reposting, although they will still expire the next time the conditions are met. Anyone can still offer to accept one of these bets after any of these conditions are met, but I must confirm the bet is still open before it is finalized.


Expiring when Jillian's heir pops:

• 10q that Faq's new heir(ess?) would've made King Banhammer proud.
• 5q that friction occurs between Jillian and her new heir due to differing personalities.
• 2q that she's a caster.

Expiring next Spacerock update:

• 5q that Lloyd doesn't make it out of Spacerock's battlespace alive
• 5q that Ace does.

Expiring at the end of Episode 0 (for lack of a better milestone):

• 1q to 2q that a forum trolling/flame war reference is made during a battle at Faq (either during the fall of old Faq, or some future siege of new Faq).

Expiring next Parson update:

• 5q that Parson does not get to meet any non-GK warlords in person by the end of Book 2.

Expiring next MK update:

• 5q that if the situation in MK deteriorates, Jack can't fool the Thinkamancers.

[Nnelg]

I'm just posting to confirm all my open bets still valid, since I set them to otherwise expire as soon as anything relevant's posted.

Perhaps I should set less restrictive windows for them...

[Whispri]

• 5q that Parson does not get to meet any non-GK warlords in person by the end of Book 2.

Hmmmmmm..... I'll take this one.