Werebiscuit wrote:OOC Speaking personally I'm against a further contract with Charlie on this. The 1,000 schmucker kickback looks good until you realise that we stand to lose 9,000 in rebuliding costs if the elves manage to take down both towers.
They've already more than half demolished one tower ( 40 points damage) and by the end of turn 3 can have 10 elves with com 18-24 round the other. At the moment that's 10x 2d6 -1 so roughly about 60 points damage to our other tower. I'd suspect less than that since we'll take out some leadership bonuses so possibly 20 points damage but more likely 30+. Our Melee forces cannot reach them until after they have gone on turn 4 so Rolf's tower is more than likely gone in turn 4. If we allow Archons to kill Altrustic elves on turn 4 then even the spearmen guarding the gumps become a threat as they'll then have a com around 23 minimum and they then become a threat to our other tower just as we're taking out the gumps. If we take the 1,000 then by turn 5 these spearmen will have com 29 and be doing 2d6+4. Unless each and every one rolls less than 4 our other tower is down in round 5.
We'll be hard pushed to save either tower as it stands but taking the contract will see them both fall by turn 5 as I doubt our bowmen can take down enough of their forces ( it's taking our 4 big guns to take out 5 of them and theres 26 of them, not counting gumps - we need to deal with the 2 remaining gumps before turn 5 and won't have Rolfs ballista to do it with.)
all-in-all the contract is a bad idea. Credit to the King in Green who has spent 4, 000 to cost us 9,000 /OOC
Werebiscuit wrote:OOC Following on from that reasoning above Swodaems, I now believe your plan to take out leadership to be a bad idea and wasteful as it will not diminish the threat on either tower.
If we focus on taking out the forces on Yuri's tower it will force them to split the force attacking Rolf's ( they're already preparing for this by their positioning).
I now don't think we can save both towers. If we take our eye off Yuri's to try to save Rolfs then it allows them to have a chance at both with likely results as above.
We use Rolf's ballista while we can. By the end of turn 3 the warriors round Rolfs tower will go before Rolf (phase 23 vs Rolf's 21) on turn 4 so he will not get a shot off in turn 4, in fact he will fall with the tower. I don't think we can prevent it without giving up his shot in turn 3.
They cannot reach Yuri's tower in round 3 and to try to do so will mean less damage to Rolf's tower. We can also interpose our ground forces (dodging like they're in a hailstorm) and thus try to stop them getting to Yuri's tower. I think we've a shot at protecting Yuri's tower. I don't think we can protect Rolf's.
This is why I wanted ground forces out. The more distractions their forces have the less chance of achieving their aims. That's what they're currently doing to us, trying to get us to change our aims from protecting one tower to the other. Please don't allow them to do it. /OOC
You're forgetting that only the base combat score and inspiration bonuses matter against structures. Leadership, Dance-fighting, and attack modifiers are all explicitly defined as currently being useless against structures. We still have a couple more rounds before the warriors and spearmen start being able to truely damage the 25 def towers. I'm curious as to where you're geting the number 23 for the elves' combat time in round 4. By my count it should be 18.
My count: (Warriors start with 8 base com. Since only inspiration bonuses affect start time and structure damage, only they are reflected in the count.)
round 1: 8->8 (Archons have yet to get contacted by the king in green with the job)
round 2: 8->14 (The round we just completed. Archons downed 3 alt elves.)
round 3: 14->18(The Archons should only be able to get 2 more alt elves next round. The warriors have a 21/36 chance of doing 0 damage to towers with 18 usable com. (They need an 8 or above.))
round 4: 18->(18,20,22) (Depending on our actions, the archons can get either 0,1,or 2 alt elves this round. This means the warriors do either ~0, ~2, or ~4 damage per attack on the tower. Worse case scenario, Rolf's tower would still be standing after attacks from all 12 warriors in round 4, but evacuation would seem like a good idea. Yuri's tower would be in trouble if the warriors spend their round 3 moves getting close to it.(8 of them could make it to the right tower with 16 move.))
round 5+: (18,20,22)->(18,20,22,24) (This is the earliest the Archons can have all 8 elves croaked by. Warriors can be doing either ~0,~2,~4, or~6 per attack to towers.)
(Marbitchow, can you make Rona's offer clearer with regards to the deadline the alt elves have to be croaked by?
Depending on how it is read, round 2 could count towards the 3 round deadline, making the deadline round 4 instead of round 5. I want to make sure Charlie is offering us a valid deadline.)Assuming Charlie's offer is valid, then I do a little renegotiating using Yuri as a relay. I advocate a plan that croaks 2 alt elves in round 3, 1 in round 4, and 2 in round 5. (We space out Buffy or Rona in round 3. In round 4, the one we don't space out does a wake up action on the one we do space out.) I say that this will look more authentic than us simply stopping interference. I also try to change the price. I ask that Armolad and Amandaria be captured alive and brought to us. (Either the Archons do all the work themselves, or they help us with a capture mission. Amandaria can only get 16 hexes away with the rest of her move this turn. A small party on the balrug could reach her. (This plan does require bringing a brick bat screen.)) If they don't go for that, then I ask that the price be increased to 1250. I also add in the odd request that, from now on, Buffy, Rona, and Faith are all required to carry a handkerchief embroidered with the names of our troops lost in this battle.