Inner Peace (Through Superior Firepower) – Episode 045

[bladestorm]

Something I just noticed… Marie didn't say the magic phrase when she specified that Haffaton would destroy Faq.

There was no "I Predict it!"

Maybe unless a Predictamancer actually declares that something is a capital-P Prediction, there's no guarantee of accuracy?

There's no guarantee of accuracy in anything they predict. All they see is point D somewhere in the future, not the path needed to get there from point A (the present). Between points A and D are the easy way, the hard way, and the very hard way. If the predictamancers give out too much information, others may sway their fate into the very hard way while trying to deny point D is inevitable. Take the fate of Faq. Marie could have seen with perfect clarity that Wanda was going to be welcomed into Faq (point B), would receive a prediction about her fate and the tools (point C), and that leads her to contact Stanley to try to get the Hammer, which brings about point D. "Haffaton will be the agent of Faq's destruction" sounds a lot better than "We are going to welcome in a caster soon and make her a part of our side, and share with her most of our city's secrets for she will be as one of us. Soon after, she will betray us, and bring in a nonroyal warlord of great power who will totally obliterate us. Then that same caster will re-animate the king into a mockery of his former self, seduce the princess, and defect to the side of the non-royal warlord, taking the Fool with her." Second version is gonna get Jack ostracized, and there's no way this uppity group of philosophers is going to welcome Wanda into the city. Stating that it will be Haffaton, the self-preservation instincts they have, coupled with the fact that they now know that Wanda is a major source of Haffaton's power, they will readily welcome Wanda into itheir city, thinking they have crippled the giant that is their impending doom. That's gonna get Faq closer to point B.

Basically, Predictamancer have to be vague or just outright lie sometimes in order for the future to unfold as they've seen it. Giving the details brings about the Very Hard Way.

[Housellama]

Something I just noticed… Marie didn't say the magic phrase when she specified that Haffaton would destroy Faq.

There was no "I Predict it!"

Maybe unless a Predictamancer actually declares that something is a capital-P Prediction, there's no guarantee of accuracy?

There's no guarantee of accuracy in anything they predict. All they see is point D somewhere in the future, not the path needed to get there from point A (the present). Between points A and D are the easy way, the hard way, and the very hard way. If the predictamancers give out too much information, others may sway their fate into the very hard way while trying to deny point D is inevitable. Take the fate of Faq. Marie could have seen with perfect clarity that Wanda was going to be welcomed into Faq (point B), would receive a prediction about her fate and the tools (point C), and that leads her to contact Stanley to try to get the Hammer, which brings about point D. "Haffaton will be the agent of Faq's destruction" sounds a lot better than "We are going to welcome in a caster soon and make her a part of our side, and share with her most of our city's secrets for she will be as one of us. Soon after, she will betray us, and bring in a nonroyal warlord of great power who will totally obliterate us. Then that same caster will re-animate the king into a mockery of his former self, seduce the princess, and defect to the side of the non-royal warlord, taking the Fool with her." Second version is gonna get Jack ostracized, and there's no way this uppity group of philosophers is going to welcome Wanda into the city. Stating that it will be Haffaton, the self-preservation instincts they have, coupled with the fact that they now know that Wanda is a major source of Haffaton's power, they will readily welcome Wanda into itheir city, thinking they have crippled the giant that is their impending doom. That's gonna get Faq closer to point B.

Basically, Predictamancer have to be vague or just outright lie sometimes in order for the future to unfold as they've seen it. Giving the details brings about the Very Hard Way.

Clarification: We don't actually now that Marie has Predicted anything at this point except that Faq will fall and that Wanda will be involved. All of the other stuff could come about later. And it's probably a good idea to take anything any Predictamancer says with a grain of salt, for the above reasons. They tend to be sneaky little people that twist words into knots in the service of Fate.

[No one in particular]

Clarification: We don't actually now that Marie has Predicted anything at this point except that Faq will fall and that Wanda will be involved. All of the other stuff could come about later. And it's probably a good idea to take anything any Predictamancer says with a grain of salt, for the above reasons. They tend to be sneaky little people that twist words into knots in the service of Fate.

I assume those are two separate thoughts, right?
1. Marie Predicted Faq's fall
2. We know Wanda is involved
Kind of sounds like one big prediction, the way you said it...

Anyway!

My point was, "I Predict it" is the phrase that lets you know you CAN trust what a Predictamancer says.

I've done some trawling, and picked out the times the phrase actually came up:

1. Janis will stack with Parson. Marie
2. Something about Wanda being "the one." Marie
3. The Thinkamancers will let Parson through the Jetstone Portal Phil
4. Frenemy & Quisling will break alliance soon, Goodminton will NOT beat Haffaton, and if Wanda keeps talking it will bring ruin to Goodminton. Delphie
5. Banhammer will fall, and so will the capital. Marie

Aside from the 2nd one, every utterance of "I Predict it" has been about a specific thing that has come to pass.

[Oberon]

Okay I thought that might be the case. It seemed like you were saying that you required proof that Turnamancers could turn units at all, because you didn't believe they could (ignoring Decryption).

No, I was saying that I required proof that the 'hammer 'tamed' people (or any unit besides dwagons, actually).

I agree with your argument, though I'm beginning to wonder if Wanda and jack DID turn.

How would you ever arrive at that conclusion? Stanley, as Overlord, knows the location and general activities of GK units via natural thinkamancy. Any other GK unit can look at a unit and know if it is a GK unit (if not, any unled unit would have to immediately attack unless they were allies), which applies to Stanley the CWL, who said "Bam! She turned!" If Wanda and Jack were not GK units, Stanley and every other Gk unit would know it instantly. Instantly anywhere for Stanley, and instantly on sight for other GK units.

At first I 'd, and then I 'd

Me, too. But, please do correct your post.

Maybe unless a Predictamancer actually declares that something is a capital-P Prediction, there's no guarantee of accuracy?

I think it's more that there are wheels within wheels going on here. Marie, as a member of at least one of the Xantos pileup going on, can't be counted on to always speak the truth, even to her king, because her loyalties are divided. And she could give conflicting information to the readers just by speaking the truth to one person while giving another story to a second. Or, what Bladestorm said.

[effataigus]

I agree with your argument, though I'm beginning to wonder if Wanda and jack DID turn.

How would you ever arrive at that conclusion? Stanley, as Overlord, knows the location and general activities of GK units via natural thinkamancy. Any other GK unit can look at a unit and know if it is a GK unit (if not, any unled unit would have to immediately attack unless they were allies), which applies to Stanley the CWL, who said "Bam! She turned!" If Wanda and Jack were not GK units, Stanley and every other Gk unit would know it instantly. Instantly anywhere for Stanley, and instantly on sight for other GK units.

I think you are objecting to a miss-communication of my point, but it still gets at an interesting question. When I said "didn't turn" I meant "in her/his heart/mind"... they definitely switched sides formally, but they might still be motivated by serving Banhammer's goals for Erfworld. Banhammer might have ordered them to turn.

However, I do wonder how much loyalty is involved in switching sides. Clearly Wanda was able to undermine Faq while still appearing as a unit of Faq (or else she would have been cut down at the dinner table). Therefore I'm assuming Wanda could remain loyal to Banhammer even while "turning" to Gobwin Knob.

[Oberon]

Clearly Wanda was able to undermine Faq while still appearing as a unit of Faq (or else she would have been cut down at the dinner table). Therefore I'm assuming Wanda could remain loyal to Banhammer even while "turning" to Gobwin Knob.

Well, sure. But turning has a specific meaning in the comic with regards to units and what side they are on. You might want to come up with a different term to avoid confusing the discussion.

[Shai_hulud]

Also, Wanda said that she was trying to get him killed, not let him destroy Faq.

[Oberon]

You're right. Wanda thought that Stanley would be killed and that she would attune to the 'hammer, in accordance with the prophecy*. Instead she judged that Stanley would be victorious as she had told him he would, and so she turned to make his victory the sweeter. If she had not turned, she may have died with the sack of FAQ


* 10 quatloos for those who understand the reference.