Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Nueamin » Sat Nov 10, 2012 3:31 pm

I would like to bet 50 Quataloos that Parson enters the portal (to Jetstone) before December. Any takers?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Sat Nov 10, 2012 5:26 pm

Nueamin wrote:I would like to bet 50 Quataloos that Parson enters the portal (to Jetstone) before December. Any takers?


Even odds? If so, I'm in.

So if before the 1st of December Parson has entered the portal you get 50Q from me.

If by the 1st of December Parson has not entered the portal I get 50Q from you.

Right?

Edit: spelling is hard.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Sat Nov 10, 2012 6:41 pm

Along with that, anyone want in on a pool as to which update Parson emerges from the other side of the portal? We are close enough that someone should be able to predict the correct issue without relying on a range (101+, etc). 10Q to get in the pool, you pick a single update, winner takes all Q that have been put into the pot.

I'll take 99.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Nueamin » Sat Nov 10, 2012 6:52 pm

mortissimus wrote:
Nueamin wrote:I would like to bet 50 Quataloos that Parson enters the portal (to Jetstone) before December. Any takers?


Even odds? If so, I'm in.

So if before the 1st of December Parson has entered the portal you get 50Q from me.

If by the 1st of December Parson has not entered the portal I get 50Q from you.

Right?

Edit: spelling is hard.


Done and done. Riskiest bet I ever made
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Mon Nov 12, 2012 4:41 pm

I grab update 98 in the Parson Exit pool.
I also made this one automatically start over with a blank slate after each update, since we're so close.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby SNfinity » Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:43 pm

I'm in on this betting pool; I'll take page 100!

EDIT: Cancel that, I bet on page 96. Which is to say that page 100 is free and my bet is hereby moved from page 100 to page 96. My prior bet of page 100 is null and okay I'll stop now.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Nnelg » Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:19 pm

I'll take 101 then.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Tue Nov 13, 2012 2:41 pm

Nnelg, if you want 100, you may change your bet to that since it's not clear to me that it was free by the time you posted.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Nnelg » Tue Nov 13, 2012 9:05 pm

It was, I intentionally chose 101.

On another note, when will the pool close? When the earliest bet turns out wrong?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:30 am

Nnelg wrote:It was, I intentionally chose 101.

On another note, when will the pool close? When the earliest bet turns out wrong?

We could just leave it going until Parson reaches the other side of the portal. If your issue passes, you just pay in your 10Q and it goes into the jackpot for whoever actually wins.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Wed Nov 14, 2012 7:23 am

This round of the pool will close when we get the next MK update, and at that time a new round will open - you can bet again, and all rounds are open. That's what I put on the first page, anyway.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mortissimus » Wed Nov 14, 2012 8:46 am

I'll grab 97.

And there is an error in the bookkeeping:
POOL 6: Same as pool 1, but with a later closing date: Update during which Parson's head enters the portal. 10q exactly, pick one update that hasn't been taken yet. Broken up into rounds, based on when we got new information. Round 1 started after update 95, and will end upon the next MK update.
Round 1
Nnelg: 101
Mortissimus: 99
Drachefly: 98
SNfinity: 96


bladestorm wrote:Along with that, anyone want in on a pool as to which update Parson emerges from the other side of the portal? We are close enough that someone should be able to predict the correct issue without relying on a range (101+, etc). 10Q to get in the pool, you pick a single update, winner takes all Q that have been put into the pot.

I'll take 99.


So it is bladestorm, not me, that has 99.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:57 am

Oops. Fixing.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Nueamin » Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:11 pm

In that case I will take page 100
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby effataigus » Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:45 pm

Eh, nothing wagered nothing gained.

My 10 quatloos to your 20 that Charlescomm either takes out Haffaton or arranges for the side to fall. Nominate an arbiter in the event of a questionable call when you accept. End date is the end of book 0... so if we know Charlie is behind it by then, I win. If Charlie is behind it but we don't find out by then, I lose. I'd give even odds for us learning this by the end of book 3 but I don't feel it's right to wager quatloos that will by rights belong to my distant ancestors. :P
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Thu Nov 15, 2012 7:19 am

I think you mean descendants. I never get those mixed up ever since I read a fanfic proposal based on the idea that Voldemort was the last remaining ancestor of Salazar Slytherin. It involved time travel.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby effataigus » Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:23 am

drachefly wrote:I think you mean descendants. I never get those mixed up ever since I read a fanfic proposal based on the idea that Voldemort was the last remaining ancestor of Salazar Slytherin. It involved time travel.

Why did they make language so haaaaard...
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby 0beron » Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:26 am

drachefly wrote:Voldemort was the last remaining ancestor...
...this would mean he had to...copulate, and I don't even wanna think about the girl who would be that desperate.... :p
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Thu Nov 15, 2012 12:39 pm

The fic only happened because that's how it was phrased in the original edition of one of the books - that Voldemort was the last ancestor. Since the characters referred to that, then it must have been the case before he died. He presumably looked better back then.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby mantimeforgot » Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:03 am

Anyone willing to give me 1000-1 odds (against) that this complicated edifice of plot speculation comes true in large part (at least 3/4 true)? (Have to make it fairly high since the Predictamancers announced he would go through the portal in a post I hadn't read until after I posted this).

Parson does not go through the portal in the Magic Kingdom (for whatever reason; though the Thinkamancers are correct that breaching the Truce would have nasty political consequences).

Parson (using a bit of lateral thinking) recognizes that Barbarian is technically a side and that the Magic Kingdom operates as a kind of separate entity and might therefore be subject to hierarchy and Duty. He becomes "Chief Caster" (or something like that) to all Barbarian casters of the MK.

Parson manages to Negotiate travel from some place (likely not his Capital since I am confidant if this move were possible from his starting point he would have utilized it rather than risk travel through the Magic Kingdom) using a system of flight and falls to cross border hexes (we've seen that you can be carried by flyers of sufficient size, and this world's game logic would be just screwy enough to allow for being carried like in something's mouth when being mounted was unavailable). (This one seems to be heavily contingent upon Parson acquiring a good relationship with the Magic Kingdom, since it would seem to require either the services of a Flower Power caster capable of summoning/creating large animals or a Master Dollamancer capable of creating large flying constructs).

Lady Sylvia is the sole remaining unit left inside the Capital of Jetstone after the upcoming battle resumes in earnest (continuing the tradition of subtly hinting at her having a acquired a Fate or something resembling one via Carnymancy), and that at some point when Lady Sylvia does croak (which does have to happen in order for this to be true), then it will be because of Fire. She was saved from Fire via Carnymancy and I strongly suspect that Erfly magicks can only "borrow time or life" and that whatever her end was originally must still be the case.



Other wild speculations (without any affirmed odds on my part, especially since some of these in combination are extremely unlikely or even mutually exclusive):

Charlie is originally from the earth universe. (How the heck does he know what OMG Hax means, and how does he know what "LOL" means? Also, no one seems to know what he looks like.)

The titans are originally earth humans that were teleported outside reality, as Parson was, and became creator beings in the absence of any influential content (no stable laws already present). Corollary: The Erf Universe is highly influenced by the presence (most recent?) of an individual from the earth universe as evidenced by the fact that the mechanics and terrain all seem familiar to Parson.

The Fourth Arkentool will be the Arkencheesegrater just to keep everyone guessing.

At some point Parson's low leadership and combat scores (he is afterall only a level 2 warlord according to the game world) will become a nearly fatal problem for him (the sword was "fixing" his problems).

Parson's ability to overcome some of the intrinsic limitations of the world (as evidenced by his ability to swear successfully) will allow him to learn Retconjuration at some point and put the world "to rights."

Charlie remains the foible to the world to the very end, but is allowed to live (deviance is necessary to keep societies in line).

Parson forces Charlie and his Arkendish to link up with the Thinkamancer guild to create a Thought Network vis-a-vis the internet. (Communications giant becomes Internet giant). Corollary (for bonus Quatloos) the name of this organization ends up being Charlescommcast.

Charlie's Archons end up armed with guns inspired and/or created by Ace Hardware.

Parson getting a hold of a Changeamancer spells end game for the conflict. (Transfiguration, especially in battle would be easily exploitable for someone like Parson).

MTF
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