Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Fri Apr 19, 2013 3:43 pm

I'll wager 5Q that Artemis does not get decrypted by Wanda.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Fri Apr 19, 2013 3:48 pm

I'll wager 50Q that either Book 0 or Book 2 is finished before 2014. This can be broken down into smaller wagers that add up to 50, so if you only want to do 2-5, that's cool, just get some friends in on the action.



Note: edited to allow for multiple entrants to bet up to a total of 50Q against me.
Last edited by bladestorm on Fri Apr 19, 2013 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Fri Apr 19, 2013 5:36 pm

And 25Q (to anyone other than drachefly, who has enough quatloo as is, the greedy boop) that Jillian does NOT croak Olive during Book 0.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Fri Apr 19, 2013 9:45 pm

And I will put 100 to anyone else's 10 that the Arkentools are not tied to a single discipline (e.g. the Arkenpliers are not tied specifically to Croakamancy, but they only do Croakamancy because that's all Wanda has ever really desired to use them for).
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby erwaro » Sun Apr 21, 2013 8:15 pm

Here's a bit of an oddball one:

I hereby wager 5 q that, before the beginning of Gobwin Knob's next turn, we will know definitively whether or not there are living Hobgobwins in Spacerock.

Even odds.

The following are clarifications:
1: We need to know for CERTAIN that either there is at least one living Hobgowin in Spacerock, or for certain that there are none.
2: Decrypted Hobgowins don't count as living, duh.
3: This means that just seeing a hobgobwin isn't enough- we need to be told that it is living, or, alternatively, be told that none of the Hobgobwins in Spacerock are living.
4: If we find out EITHER for certain before the beginning of Gobwin Knob's next turn, I win.
5: If don't find out either of those things for certain before the beginning of Gobwin Knob's next turn, you win.

I think there's a way to know for certain without necessarily being told, though I won't tell you what it is. Because.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby wih » Mon Apr 22, 2013 1:59 pm

erwaro wrote:Here's a bit of an oddball one:

I hereby wager 5 q that, before the beginning of Gobwin Knob's next turn, we will know definitively whether or not there are living Hobgobwins in Spacerock.

..snip..


I'll take this bet.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Whispri » Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:11 am

Whispri wrote:
erwaro wrote:I will lay out my amateur predictamancy for those who wish to disagree:

10 quatloo says that no casters are involved in stopping the fire. That is, if you bet against me, and a caster is involved in putting out the Spacerock Inferno, you win. Bet concludes when the inferno does. If we don't find out when the inferno dies, or in the immediate aftermath (say, 5 relevant updates), no bet resolution, and not q are exchanged. Parson doesn't count as a caster for the purpose of this bet, obviously. Actually, I'll go ahead and say that you win if you bet against me and Parson does something magical to put out the fire.

As a separate bet, my 10 quatloo to your 20 says that Parson puts out the fire by ordering the city razed. That is, if you bet against me, you win 10 quatloo if the inferno is put out by methods other than the city being ordered razed. I win 20 q if the fire gets put out by the city being ordered razed (it doesn't necessarily have to be Parson who issues the order, though I'd be surprised if it was someone else).

I'll take the first bet.

This wasn't added to the list of active bets.

bladestorm wrote:I'll wager 5Q that Artemis does not get decrypted by Wanda.

Okay, I'll bite. *Snap* *Snap*
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Wed Apr 24, 2013 10:27 am

Yup, missed that one. Thanks for the catch.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Thu Apr 25, 2013 12:25 am

drachefly wrote:I bet my 10 to your 5 that Parson's plan doesn't involve changing GK's capitol


Glad no one took that!
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby erwaro » Sat Apr 27, 2013 1:26 am

20 q says that Parsons side will be allied with Tramennis' side before we get 10 updates into book 4.

Only if both are living, decryption doesn't count.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby erwaro » Tue Apr 30, 2013 8:08 pm

Well, looks like I was probably wrong about razing the city- glad no one took that one...

I'm a lot less certain about the lack of caster-y goodness in the putting out of the inferno, too. We'll see, though.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby WhirdCheese » Wed May 01, 2013 7:02 pm

I'd like to put 13q on the scroll bringing whomever it is used on to Charlescomm's capital. If the scroll is not used by the end of the second book nobody wins.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lipkin » Thu May 02, 2013 9:02 am

Gonna pop my prediction cherry.

I'll bet 10q that Parson casts the Carnymancy scroll on the Gobwin Knob forces currently in Spacerock, allowing him to go barbarian and claim the city to start a new side. I'd like someone to put up 20 against my 10. (I get 20 for a win, you get 10)

I'll bet a further 20q (and give even odds) that if Parson does start a new side, he doesn't rejoin Gobwin Knob after he is out of danger. Joining in formal alliance does not count.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby effataigus » Thu May 02, 2013 11:13 am

WhirdCheese wrote:I'd like to put 13q on the scroll bringing whomever it is used on to Charlescomm's capital. If the scroll is not used by the end of the second book nobody wins.
Hmm... I wouldn't be surprised if you end up right, but I'll take this bet.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby effataigus » Thu May 02, 2013 11:16 am

bladestorm wrote:And I will put 100 to anyone else's 10 that the Arkentools are not tied to a single discipline (e.g. the Arkenpliers are not tied specifically to Croakamancy, but they only do Croakamancy because that's all Wanda has ever really desired to use them for).
Hmm, I'd take this if it were winnable. How about I risk 10 to your 50, but we consider this bet resolved in my favor if, by the end of book 3, the arkentools are not explicitly shown to be multi-disciplinary.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby bladestorm » Thu May 02, 2013 11:50 am

effataigus wrote:
bladestorm wrote:And I will put 100 to anyone else's 10 that the Arkentools are not tied to a single discipline (e.g. the Arkenpliers are not tied specifically to Croakamancy, but they only do Croakamancy because that's all Wanda has ever really desired to use them for).
Hmm, I'd take this if it were winnable. How about I risk 10 to your 50, but we consider this bet resolved in my favor if, by the end of book 3, the arkentools are not explicitly shown to be multi-disciplinary.

I'll agree to resolution by the end of Book 3.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Tue May 07, 2013 7:49 am

I bet 10q that within one full turn, Stanley is captured.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Shai_hulud » Tue May 07, 2013 12:05 pm

I'll take that. Assuming one full turn is the end of RCC's next turn that is?
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby drachefly » Wed May 08, 2013 7:11 am

Right.
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Re: Amateur Predictamancy Thread (BETTING)

Postby Lipkin » Mon May 13, 2013 11:33 pm

Lipkin wrote:Gonna pop my prediction cherry.

I'll bet 10q that Parson casts the Carnymancy scroll on the Gobwin Knob forces currently in Spacerock, allowing him to go barbarian and claim the city to start a new side. I'd like someone to put up 20 against my 10. (I get 20 for a win, you get 10)

I'll bet a further 20q (and give even odds) that if Parson does start a new side, he doesn't rejoin Gobwin Knob after he is out of danger. Joining in formal alliance does not count.

Withdrawn.
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