Book 2 – Text Updates 059

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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Kreistor » Sun May 19, 2013 7:45 pm

Fjord wrote:
Kreistor wrote:...

But the one solution that makes only one change is this -- Jack is not dead.


Or the odds themselves could be changing. If, as it has been suggested several times, it is not a unit, but Erfworld itself that is interfering through fate, then it would make sense that the bracer would chance it's answer when fate devises a way to stop Parson from casting the scroll.
Like letting a beam drop on his head.
This introduces no new information, as we are aware that the bracer can make advanced hypothetical calculations involving fate (from summer updates).
That is your true Occams Razor answer.

Edit: Shortened it for convenience


6 elements added.

1) Erfworld is an entity.
2) Erfworld is sentient.
3) Erfworld has a purpose that aligns with those that created the Summon spell
4) Erfworld can foresee that this purpose is achieved only by Parson's presence.
5) Erfworld can affect the perception of units.
6) Erfworld cannot achieve the same effect with a form of magic that does not reveal its presence.

Sorry, Epic Fail. HUGE Epic Fail, actually.
http://www.erfworld.com/wiki/index.php/TBFGK_1 Here you can find all comic pages written as text for convenient quoting.

http://www.erfworld.com/wiki/index.php/Erfworld_Mechanics The starting page for accessing all known Erfworld "rules".
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby drachefly » Sun May 19, 2013 8:01 pm

If it was foolamancy, and the foolamancer was quarter-way competent, he simply wouldn't see the 98% because he would see the 0.000 or a blank projected in front of the screen. Either way, no nonzero number would appear.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Lilwik » Sun May 19, 2013 8:10 pm

If find it highly unlikely that Fate is willing the bracer to display 0.0 in an attempt to prevent Parson from reading the scroll for several reasons. First, I don't think we've ever seen any evidence that anyone can actually fight Fate. Fate always ultimately wins; the only question is how, and in this case Parson ultimately saw .980104773, not 0.0, which means that Fate never determined that Parson would see 0.0. If Fate were involved in it at all, it could only mean that Parson was fated to see .980104773 and some other force was trying to prevent that.

Second, I don't believe that Fate is like a puppeteer. We've never seen Fate do anything directly. A falling beam does not count as Fate pulling a string, because Parson was right in the middle of a burning building and that makes it more likely that he'd be struck by a falling beam than not, by chance alone. From everything that I've seen, Fate is nothing more than the inevitable future. When your predictamancer tells you that you will be ambushed this turn, then if you're the sort of person who would choose a different road because of that prediction then the prediction means that there are actually two ambushes for you to walk into, one upon the road you would have gone, and one upon the road you will go. It's not Fate that forces you to be ambushed; your enemy is forcing that by setting ambushes on both roads. Fate is only a recognition of that fact. (Actually, there would only need to be an ambush on the road you actually choose, but I'm assuming that your predictamancer would choose not to make a prediction that would cause an otherwise unnecessary ambush.)

Third, we know very little about Mathamancy. Are the bracer's predictions just Mathamancy or does it also have Predictamancy abilities? They are both Hocus Pocus so it is only natural that we might confuse the two sometimes, but until we actually get details of how Mathamancy works from a Mathamancer we can only guess. I'm tempted to believe that Mathamancy is much like Predictamancy except that Predictamancy always gives you answers that are 100% guaranteed, while Mathamancy can give answers in situations where there is doubt but only if you ask a specific question. Or maybe the bracer was torn between its Mathamancy abilities and its Predictamancy abilities, with Mathamancy and Predictamancy giving radically different answers in this case, but with the bracer being smart enough to let the Predictamancy override the Mathamancy.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby bladestorm » Sun May 19, 2013 8:32 pm

Kreistor wrote:
Fjord wrote:
Kreistor wrote:That... that was Foolamancy!

Jack... Jack may not be dead.

and...

Jack may not be Jack...

Something didn't want Parson leaving. Something DOESN'T want Parson leaving.

And what better place than to be than... right... beside... Parson...


First of all, it seems rather unlikely that it was foolamancy. If nothing else, then the speed you would have to cast the spell with is near impossible for a "human".
Secondly, fate does not need an active unit as an agent. It can use any agent it wills, like a beam to the head.
Thirdly: We have had no indication that Jack survived being killed.


1) Affecting the senses is Foolamancy. Period. That is its purpose. It is Foolamancy: there is no other appropriate school in the lexicon.

2) Whatever was doing it was keeping Parson in Erfworld. the only known entities that desire Parson's presence are in the MK, and no unit can be in Spacerock to cast any kind of spell, because Spacerock just changed to GK Side. This demands that no non-GK unit is in Garrison, and all other units in City are shackled.

3) The only unit that has an interest in Parson that is not in the RCC2 is Charlie, anbd Charlie wants Parson to cast the spell. If he was aware of Stanley moving to change Capital, Charlie would push harder for Parson to cast it, not act to delay its casting by confusing the bracer. He would, if anything, fool the bracer into giving Parson 98% odds of casting, not 0.

So, no known unit type can be affecting the Bracer.

No klnown entity with capacity to affect the bracer is interested in affecting the bracer in this manner.

Yet, something did affect the bracer or Parson's perception of the bracer.

There are dozens of options. This is where we turn to Occam's Razor. The solution that introduces the fewest elements is the most likely. (I use the old form, not the more current "simplest solution" form.)

The only element I am adding is that Jack is not dead. If we assume Jack is not dead, then all things fall into place:

1) He can cast Foolamancy. He can affect Parson's perception and achieve this effect.
2) He has known interest in Parson staying.

You can speculate on any number of other answers, but this is the only one I can think of that a single change can achieve this result. We can speculate about t GMTTA linking and causing Parson's senses to distort. Requires multiple additions -- Links can cast beyond Hex borders off-turn, Thinkamancy Links can achieve Foolamancy effects, Tyhinkamancy can determine Parson needs to be delayed. Or maybe the Titans did it. (Can't imagine how much speculative abilities get you there.) We canpostulate that it was the Warlord Spell itself -- demands the Spell have intelligence, capacity to defend itself, can influence Parson's senses instead of just his attitudes. Any number of things.

But the one solution that makes only one change is this -- Jack is not dead.

Several additional factors
1) Jack is not dead
2) Jack is somehow immune to the inferno that is steadily croaking more and more units
3) Jack is within visual and hearing distance so that he can know exactly when Parson is touching the scroll and asking for the calculation
4) Jack knows what the scroll will do
5) It is only Parson's perception of the bracer's numbers that have changed, not the Numbers themselves
6) Either Jack can fool Stanley's Ruler senses, or GK lost some other caster
7) Jack was lying about being out of juice.
8) Occam's razor also indicates that if you shave away the additional factors (thus the razor part), the hypothesis still holds.
9) We just completely ignore the huge amount of work about Fate, Predictamancy, and Numbers lining up, where Fate will adjust Numbers.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Shai_hulud » Sun May 19, 2013 8:41 pm

Kreistor wrote:1) Affecting the senses is Foolamancy. Period. That is its purpose. It is Foolamancy: there is no other appropriate school in the lexicon.
Lookamancers can blind people. So a school besides Foolamancy can affect senses.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Denar » Sun May 19, 2013 8:54 pm

-> Parson has the ability to cast (up to and including actually being a Caster).

-> This is shown by the fact that he had a 98% chance of being able to cast the scroll, and a small chance (i.e. successfully casting outside of his discipline? If he has one) of casting Dirtamancy (especially considering it's the spell that puts out Infernos)

-> Fate has multiple Predictions still that Parson needs to fulfil, so it doesn't want Parson to leave the world.

This is it; this is why the bracer keeps telling him why he should be able to use the scroll, but keeps becoming "all zeroes!" as Marie would say. Fate was definitely involved, and it doesn't want him casting that spell, the parameters Parson has been feeding the bracer include the conditions "here and now", so for this specific instance, it is impossible for him to cast the scroll.

The battle over him is between Charlie the Carnymancer (anti fate magic) who's trying to push him out of the world (because inside the world, Fate will always make sure that Parson wins... eventually) and Fate, which isn't going to give Parson the opportunity to successfully do that.

There's no Jack still alive, the thinkamancer conspiracy aren't "manipulating the bracer" - and I doubt anyone except Charlie really understands what is happening. It's just Charlie vs Fate above Parson.

Of course, after this there is the question of "Fate is so meta now, it stops you doing stuff that stops it, isn't that really story-breaking OP?" which has always been a small concern on these forums. Where's the story if Parson is invulnerable by Plot Armour and, even worse, can't even make decisions that Fate doesn't like without before being knocked out? We briefly had the promise of "free will" from Jojo and Carnymancer, which was supposed to be the magic that actually beat Fate - but now it seems Fate just trumps all.

At least it is a recurring theme addressed/lampshaded by the characters (Jillian with the disbelief that she keeps getting screwed over in Book 0, Wanda and the "easy way", Banhammer crying about being Fate's tool...) who all seem to agree it's terribly unfair, but at least up until now we've seen ways of getting around it (shoot the broomstick! have a trial! curse my luck!). Now we're going to be arguing whenever something bad happens to Parson in the future, "well why didn't Fate do X and Y for he's doing that? For everyone opposing Parson, why hasn't Fate punished them for choosing the "hard way? Any Predictamancer could tell them that he's going to win, so delaying that should be stupid!"

I'd be interested to see how Rob is going to develop this. So far, the "interest" in a story whose protagonist is never in danger is supported by the other characters we love and don't want to see die. But Misty, Bogroll, Sylvia, Jack (yeah he is dead), now Stanley has all the "death flags" on him... we're running out of likeable characters. I think Parson's act of "breaking Erfworld" as he is supposed to will mean that Fate is broken and "free will" is returned (determinists, go away, this is fantasy), but whatever happens to the story in the middle...

rant over.

Third, we know very little about Mathamancy. Are the bracer's predictions just Mathamancy or does it also have Predictamancy abilities? They are both Hocus Pocus so it is only natural that we might confuse the two sometimes, but until we actually get details of how Mathamancy works from a Mathamancer we can only guess.


Yes, considering the bracer now, the two seem very linked - but the bracer always did seem especially odd... The understanding about the difference between Mathamancy and Predicatamancy is that Mathamancy tells you the likelihood of an event happening, whereas Predictamancy can only tell you if there is a Fate on that event happening... the overall difference is academic, I guess, but Predictamancer's can't tell you what's going to happen if there's no Fate on it (it doesn't care about everyone), and Mathamancers can't allow for Fate in their calculations, which will always trump the result into 100% or 0% (it's why I don't understand the bracer returning "0". If Parson is "able" to cast the scroll, then it should say that. Fate all just make it impossible and hit him with a beam regardless). Seeing as there's no shortage of Fate in the storyarc (obviously I guess), both are pretty interchangeable.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Oberon » Sun May 19, 2013 9:15 pm

Pointyleaf wrote:I think the bracer is saying "You're technically capable of casting this scroll, and you can try, but Fate won't let you successfully cast it."

And when he tried, Fate smacked him on the head with a 2x4. Literally.
My take exactly.

Denar wrote:'So he doesn't have to do what Charlie says if it endangers his side, but he was happy to tell him exactly how many Archons he'd need to take GK's Garrison?
Charlie had the forces to take the garrison, so all answering him did was allow him to commit fewer resources.

Joe22c. wrote:This just reminded me of that. Of course, in this case, instead of 1,000 iterations, we only saw 1 (or 2, depending on how you count it) so I guess my analogy isn't apt.
We saw 12 iterations. Unless you meant recursions?

Kreistor wrote:1) Affecting the senses is Foolamancy.
You're mostly right about foolamancy. You only missed describing anything in this update which affected the senses. Unless you count being knocked senseless? In which case, you're wrong, that is not foolamancy.

I personally can't wait until Parson calls up Charlie and tells him "The answer to your calculation is .980104773 and 0.0." Let that blow Charlie's mind as he recalls that Parson cannot lie to him.
How using capslock wins arguments:
Zeroberon wrote:So we know with 100% certainty that THIS IS HOW TRI-LINKS WORK, PERIOD END OF STORY.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Lilwik » Sun May 19, 2013 9:59 pm

Denar wrote:Predictamancer's can't tell you what's going to happen if there's no Fate on it (it doesn't care about everyone), and Mathamancers can't allow for Fate in their calculations, which will always trump the result into 100% or 0%.

That is assuming that Fate is some sort of magical force in the world, but we've seen no evidence of that except perhaps the flickering bracer just now. Until now Fate has never made anything happen by force; things have simply gone the way Fate dictates for completely unrelated reasons. In fact, I see no evidence that Fate is even really a plan. I think it's more likely that Fate is just a preview of things to come as determined by the free choices of people, and the only thing that makes a person fated is having a future that is within the limitations of a predictamancer's abilities to predict, which probably means someone who isn't going to have many real choices in life.

In other words, Fate is not magic itself, doesn't have goals or desires. The only magic in Fate comes from casters aligned with Fate.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby ManaCaster » Sun May 19, 2013 10:06 pm

Lilwik wrote:If find it highly unlikely that Fate is willing the bracer to display 0.0 in an attempt to prevent Parson from reading the scroll for several reasons. First, I don't think we've ever seen any evidence that anyone can actually fight Fate. Fate always ultimately wins; the only question is how, and in this case Parson ultimately saw .980104773, not 0.0, which means that Fate never determined that Parson would see 0.0. If Fate were involved in it at all, it could only mean that Parson was fated to see .980104773 and some other force was trying to prevent that.

Jojo seems to believe it can be fought. And Wanda mentioned that it might be possible for Olive to croak Jillian, it's just that Fate would punish her if she succeeded.

Lilwik wrote:Second, I don't believe that Fate is like a puppeteer. We've never seen Fate do anything directly. A falling beam does not count as Fate pulling a string, because Parson was right in the middle of a burning building and that makes it more likely that he'd be struck by a falling beam than not, by chance alone. From everything that I've seen, Fate is nothing more than the inevitable future. When your predictamancer tells you that you will be ambushed this turn, then if you're the sort of person who would choose a different road because of that prediction then the prediction means that there are actually two ambushes for you to walk into, one upon the road you would have gone, and one upon the road you will go. It's not Fate that forces you to be ambushed; your enemy is forcing that by setting ambushes on both roads. Fate is only a recognition of that fact. (Actually, there would only need to be an ambush on the road you actually choose, but I'm assuming that your predictamancer would choose not to make a prediction that would cause an otherwise unnecessary ambush.)

Erfworld is based on gaming. The closest parallel to Fate is a railroading GM, so it would make a lot of sense if Fate is a force that has to enforce itself, rather than just being a recognition of inevitability.

And yes, we have seen Fate actually do stuff. Wanda and Marie said that Fate borrows Numbers when it needs to. And remember when Stanley went to take Faq, and he found a large number of dwagons on the path? It is extremely improbable that that just happened on random chance. Fate was causing extra dwagons to pop on the hexes Stanley was visiting.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby LordAcme » Sun May 19, 2013 10:27 pm

ManaCaster wrote:
LordAcme wrote:Even if Parson goes home, I think there's a great likelihood that Charlie would try to summon Parson back to work for him. He did participate in summoning Judy too, so he has experience with caster linkups for the summoning spell. And he has a whoopload of casters to link up and an Arkentool to do it with.

Doubtful. He needs certain disciplines to do that, including Predictamancy. Since all Predictamancers are allied with his enemies and this would go against the Titans' will, the only way for him to create a new summoning spell is to capture and force a Predictamancer to participate. That doesn't really fit Charlie's MO.


Err, unless you KNOW the identity of the person you're trying to summon. Then it's more Findamancy, right? The Predictamancy was needed to identify "the one", but that's in the past.

And re motive, as others have said, Charlie is a manipulator. I've no proof, but with his intelligence gathering ability and sheer amount of Schmuckers, I think there's a fair chance he was aware of the plot against him for some time. Given Charlie's MO, if that's true, he would immediately have taken the new element into his plans and tried to work out a no-lose situation.

Lastly, who says all Predictamancers are allied? Were I Charlie, I'd have gone looking for Level 1s ASAP and paid big money for them wherever I could (or traded Archon contracts, that would have been very attractive to sides like Goodminton), then kept them sequestered and busy Predicting things that have nothing to do with Charlie's future.

Actually, a great idea would be to do the same for all the low-level Casters of any kind I could find and afford the upkeep on. A contingent of battle-ready Archons in exchange for your lowly non-battle Casters? Yeah, I'd have a lot of casters.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby LordAcme » Sun May 19, 2013 10:32 pm

Doctor Foreman wrote:
LordAcme wrote:Wasn't the fact that Parson is a caster confirmed way back in book 1? (rummaging) ah, here it is:
http://www.erfworld.com/book-1-archive/?px=%2F140.jpg

That counts as confirmation only if you take Janis's statement at face value instead of interpreting it as being economical with the truth.

That's a Grand Abbess Hippiemancer saying that too.[/quote]
Which doesn't really prove she was telling the truth.[/quote]

I'm confused, is there any evidence at all that Janis would lie? I don't understand why anyone's perspective is weighted against her telling the truth to her MK friends. Just because the truth would explain everything and also keep Parson safe(r) doesn't mean she's lying...?
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby LordAcme » Sun May 19, 2013 10:40 pm

(unquoted for forum software limitations) LordAcme wrote:
Even if Parson goes home, I think there's a great likelihood that Charlie would try to summon Parson back to work for him. He did participate in summoning Judy too, so he has experience with caster linkups for the summoning spell. And he has a whoopload of casters to link up and an Arkentool to do it with.
ManaCaster wrote:
joosy wrote:
ManaCaster wrote:Doubtful. He needs certain disciplines to do that, including Predictamancy. Since all Predictamancers are allied with his enemies and this would go against the Titans' will, the only way for him to create a new summoning spell is to capture and force a Predictamancer to participate. That doesn't really fit Charlie's MO.


He seems to have no problem with coercion, blackmail, or forcing people to sign contracts under duress.

No, certainly not, but he does have an aversion to possessing any sapient units other than Archons. He doesn't even have a Chief Warlord for the bonus, and all of his caster needs were hired from the magic kingdom.

Anyways, he hasn't used the Summon Perfect Warlord Spell since Judy Gale, so why do it again now? As long as there are no other "Perfect Warlords", he doesn't actually need one. He is already by far the deadliest opponent in the game.

And if he were to do so, why would he pick Parson, when he could have anyone matching just about any possibility? He's already tried to kill Parson, so that'd make things kinda awkward. If he's going to go shopping, he may as well pick someone better suited to his needs.


Because Charlie'd be preventing the MK cabal from getting Parson back themselves. As long as he's alive, he's a (potential) piece in any Erfworld game. His only way out of that is to be an Erfworld player instead, and that ain't happening in Milwaukee (or whereever he's from, I forget).

This fits Charlie's MO perfectly, actually. Kill Parson or return him home, where he can be immediately summoned again by Charlie. Either Charlie becomes the strongest side in Erfworld because Parson's dead, or he becomes even stronger because Parson's serving him. Win - WIN.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby mroozee » Sun May 19, 2013 10:42 pm

Did anyone else notice that 0.980104773 = 50889/51922 or put another way... 9/26 + 1266/1997? 9/26 obviously means "I" while 1266/1997 refers to Senate Bill 1266 passed in 1997 that defines kidnapping in extradition treaties (note: this bill died in the House). The parallels are to obvious to ignore so we can safely conclude that Parson will not be rescued by Stanley, Charlie or Jetstone... he's going to be taken by another side.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby bladestorm » Sun May 19, 2013 10:55 pm

LordAcme wrote:And re motive, as others have said, Charlie is a manipulator. I've no proof, but with his intelligence gathering ability and sheer amount of Schmuckers, I think there's a fair chance he was aware of the plot against him for some time. Given Charlie's MO, if that's true, he would immediately have taken the new element into his plans and tried to work out a no-lose situation.

That's not Charlie's MO, and he has been very specific about it. He doesn't make a no-lose situation, it is always a win-win situation, and he does not do it for free. Charlescomm gets paid to create win-win situations.

There's a lot of Thinkamancers floating around the MK, and they could be very useful to many of the sides currently out there, yet those sides will pays Charlescomm for thinkamancer services. He already knows about their little conspiracy, and is cornering the market of their utility.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Beeskee » Sun May 19, 2013 10:57 pm

Masennus wrote:98010 is a zip code in Black Diamond, WA. I've seen zip codes with an extra four digits. No idea how to look up the 4773 part. Google availed me nothing.

Do we know where Parson is from? Surely he'd recognize his old zip code if that were it.


To search for a 9-digit zip code, search for 5-4. So: 98010-4773. Google maps says this is the city of Black Diamond. I have no idea what the significance of that is.

Parson is from Columbus, OH
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Kaed » Sun May 19, 2013 11:09 pm

mroozee wrote:Did anyone else notice that 0.980104773 = 50889/51922 or put another way... 9/26 + 1266/1997? 9/26 obviously means "I" while 1266/1997 refers to Senate Bill 1266 passed in 1997 that defines kidnapping in extradition treaties (note: this bill died in the House). The parallels are to obvious to ignore so we can safely conclude that Parson will not be rescued by Stanley, Charlie or Jetstone... he's going to be taken by another side.


Sir, I hereby award you the Golden Foil Hat trophy, in honor of you presenting the most preposterous theory I've ever read.

I can't even tell if you're joking or not, that is some poker face you've got.
UNLESS someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby effataigus » Sun May 19, 2013 11:27 pm

First off, to those doubting that fate could operate with a falling beam, recall the falling rubble and the arrow deflection.
Kaed wrote:
mroozee wrote:Did anyone else notice that 0.980104773 = 50889/51922 or put another way... 9/26 + 1266/1997? 9/26 obviously means "I" while 1266/1997 refers to Senate Bill 1266 passed in 1997 that defines kidnapping in extradition treaties (note: this bill died in the House). The parallels are to obvious to ignore so we can safely conclude that Parson will not be rescued by Stanley, Charlie or Jetstone... he's going to be taken by another side.


Sir, I hereby award you the Golden Foil Hat trophy, in honor of you presenting the most preposterous theory I've ever read.

I can't even tell if you're joking or not, that is some poker face you've got.
I also love this thread. We already have genius, idiocy, and something that could be both!

So. As a thought exercise, lets consider what happens if the Big Bad really is a petulant railroading GM. How do those situations typically end? In my experience they end with:
1. The player getting frustrated and quitting... in which case the PC becomes an NPC. This would be weird.
2. The GM getting frustrated... rocks fall, everyone dies.
3. ?

Neither 1 nor 2 sounds likely, so what else could go in 3? The Player stealing the campaign notes and rewriting them? The player knocking the GM out with a 2x4? They player holding the GM's prized mint condition transformer miniatures hostage until the GM agrees to restructure the campaign world? We've seen Parson demand, and get, the ability to cuss, but what weapons might he have in his arsenal other than force of will? I have no answers. I love this comic.

As an aside, we have reason to believe that Parson intended to be the petulant railroading GM before getting sucked in himself.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby bladestorm » Sun May 19, 2013 11:43 pm

effataigus wrote:First off, to those doubting that fate could operate with a falling beam, recall the falling rubble and the arrow deflection.
Kaed wrote:
mroozee wrote:Did anyone else notice that 0.980104773 = 50889/51922 or put another way... 9/26 + 1266/1997? 9/26 obviously means "I" while 1266/1997 refers to Senate Bill 1266 passed in 1997 that defines kidnapping in extradition treaties (note: this bill died in the House). The parallels are to obvious to ignore so we can safely conclude that Parson will not be rescued by Stanley, Charlie or Jetstone... he's going to be taken by another side.


Sir, I hereby award you the Golden Foil Hat trophy, in honor of you presenting the most preposterous theory I've ever read.

I can't even tell if you're joking or not, that is some poker face you've got.
I also love this thread. We already have genius, idiocy, and something that could be both!

So. As a thought exercise, lets consider what happens if the Big Bad really is a petulant railroading GM. How do those situations typically end? In my experience they end with:
1. The player getting frustrated and quitting... in which case the PC becomes an NPC. This would be weird.
2. The GM getting frustrated... rocks fall, everyone dies.
3. ?

Neither 1 nor 2 sounds likely, so what else could go in 3? The Player stealing the campaign notes and rewriting them? The player knocking the GM out with a 2x4? They player holding the GM's prized mint condition transformer miniatures hostage until the GM agrees to restructure the campaign world? We've seen Parson demand, and get, the ability to cuss, but what weapons might he have in his arsenal other than force of will? I have no answers. I love this comic.

As an aside, we have reason to believe that Parson intended to be the petulant railroading GM before getting sucked in himself.

3. Player stops resisting and goes along with the GM's story, picking out the small details that they can control that don't alter the GM's pre-planned set-in-stone story, yet give him the flexibility to add his own flair.
4. Player realizes the obvious plot line, realizes that they WILL be in the final chapter, and starts taking HUGE personal risks that advance the plot.
5. Player goes along with the railroad, but goes home at night and writes a scathing blog about how bad the GM is, makes copious notes about the campaign, game-world, etc, then starts a new group and runs the game their own way.
6. Neither player nor GM give in, but they vent their frustration by reading web-comics, getting on the forums, and entertaining others by arguing over stupid stuff that acts as metaphor for the issues in the game.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Lilwik » Sun May 19, 2013 11:49 pm

ManaCaster wrote:Jojo seems to believe it can be fought. And Wanda mentioned that it might be possible for Olive to croak Jillian, it's just that Fate would punish her if she succeeded.


Jojo is a carnymancer so he might actually be able to fight Fate. I wonder what Wanda would have to say about that, but no matter what Wanda says I would never trust her opinion about Predictamancy because she's crazy that way. She has a deep fear of Predictamancy and I'm sure she overestimates it's power. If a Prediction turned out be wrong somehow, I can't believe there would be some sort of vengeance like in a Final Destination movie. On the contrary, I think that predictamancers are never wrong (except perhaps when foiled by high-juice Carnymancy), and it was only Wanda's limited understanding of Predictamancy that made her say that.

ManaCaster wrote:Erfworld is based on gaming. The closest parallel to Fate is a railroading GM, so it would make a lot of sense if Fate is a force that has to enforce itself, rather than just being a recognition of inevitability.


I haven't seen any evidence for a GM of any sort, and Fate certainly doesn't seem much like a GM to me.

ManaCaster wrote:And yes, we have seen Fate actually do stuff. Wanda and Marie said that Fate borrows Numbers when it needs to. And remember when Stanley went to take Faq, and he found a large number of dwagons on the path? It is extremely improbable that that just happened on random chance. Fate was causing extra dwagons to pop on the hexes Stanley was visiting.


Does anyone remember where those people said those things? I would like to look that up and see the details of wording and context.

It depends on what they meant by borrowing numbers. Neither Wanda nor Marie are aligned with Numbers, though I guess they would still have a better understanding of Numbers than I do. But I think if we use the Luckamancy metaphor of dice, then Predictamancy is the magic of knowing in advance how the dice will land, just as Carnymancy is the magic of changing how the dice will land. Stanley really was very lucky; Fate wasn't helping him; all Fate was doing was whispering into a predictamancer's ear that the dice were going to favor Stanley that day.

I wouldn't put it past a predictamancer to talk about borrowing numbers just as a way to convince people to take Predictions seriously, since so many people seem to think that Predictions are just speculation. Marie might also think of Predictamancy as a way of locking in a future dice roll to one specific result, which might involve borrowing numbers, though that's a strange way of thinking about it since the dice were going to roll that way with or without the Prediction. I'd say that Carnymancy is the kind of Fate that does the number borrowing.
Lilwik
 
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby name lips » Mon May 20, 2013 12:10 am

Slightly alternate explanation:

The bracer is the tool of Fate. Fate wants to make Parson do certain things. Fate is the direction Erfworld is "supposed" to go -- and it's using Parson.

Charlie wants to defy Fate. He is a Carnymancer, he detests being part of a larger plan, he wants to break free, to make his own rules.

Parson can cast the scroll. Fate doesn't want him to, so it makes the bracer display 0.00% odds. Fate knows that if the bracer says 0.00%, Parson won't even try. Fate knows Parson trusts the bracer.

But Charlie is a Carnymancer, and can break the rules. He can defy the regular order of things. For a moment, a split second, his power can overwhelm the power of Fate, allowing Parson to see the true answer -- the answer only Charlie wants him to see -- the truth.

But with all his power, even Charlie can't give Parson more than a split second of Truth. Fate quickly reasserts itself, gains control over the bracer, and displays the lie. The lie that will make Parson do what it wants, and not what Charlie wants.

Parson has figured it out. He said it "two railroading GMs." Charlie wants to control him. Fate wants to control him. At the moment, it looks like Fate is winning. Parson is unconscious, Stanley changes the capital, Sizemore comes through and puts out the inferno, Parson lives.

But one very, very important thing has happened. Parson now knows he can't trust the bracer. He already realized he didn't need the sword -- he needs to ditch the bracer too. It's just one more thing controlling him.
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