Book 2 – Text Updates 059

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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Nueamin » Mon May 20, 2013 12:44 am

mroozee wrote:I'm pretty sure the bracer is just being very strict with the words "now" and "the/this". The reasoning would be that "now" and "this" fix a point in time which passes and then can't be recaptured or (perhaps more likely) the Carnymancy scroll is ever-shifting... it is always THE Carnymancy spell but only THIS Carnymancy spell for an instant. Rob even goes so far as to italicize here and now at one point to give us a clue!

Q1: “Odds of: successfully casting the Carnymancy spell I’m touching.”
A: (too many possibilities) specify conditions [here and now] and target [me] = X then 0.0

Q2: “Odds of: me as a warlord, as I am, casting this Carnymancy spell, right here and now.”
A: (apparently not needing a target this time) Y then 0.0

Questions without the "now" qualifier and using "the" instead of "this" give sticky results. Then...

Q3: “True/false: I could create conditions here and now that would give me non-zero odds of casting the Carnymancy spell.”
A: T then switches to F

Q4: “Odds of: me successfully casting a Dirtamancy spell to put out the fire.”
A: Z

Q5: “Odds of me casting this spell!”
A: Z then 0.0

Q6: "Again"
A: V then 0.0

Q7: “Run this same calculation ten times in a row. Go.”
A: Flashing between 0.980104773 and 0.0


After Reviewing the thread and the many theories this one seems to be right on the money. This rings true unlike many of the other theories and seems to fit Rob's humor. Parson was either too distracted/panicky to notice this or possibly the smoke/heat was affecting his ability to think.

Garbage in. Garbage out.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby mroozee » Mon May 20, 2013 12:47 am

effataigus wrote:
Kaed wrote:
mroozee wrote:Did anyone else notice that 0.980104773 = 50889/51922 or put another way... 9/26 + 1266/1997? 9/26 obviously means "I" while 1266/1997 refers to Senate Bill 1266 passed in 1997 that defines kidnapping in extradition treaties (note: this bill died in the House). The parallels are to obvious to ignore so we can safely conclude that Parson will not be rescued by Stanley, Charlie or Jetstone... he's going to be taken by another side.


Sir, I hereby award you the Golden Foil Hat trophy, in honor of you presenting the most preposterous theory I've ever read.

I can't even tell if you're joking or not, that is some poker face you've got.
I also love this thread. We already have genius, idiocy, and something that could be both!


I guess I should've put a smiley at the end of my post. This was in response to the theories that this represents a Zip Code which I thought was silly; it's almost certainly a random string of digits and nothing more. What I really wanted to find was someone who was born on May 8, 1889 and died on May 19, 1922 (or shift these dates back N-hundred years) but apparently there's no one whose biography is online who fits that particular bill. My preferred theory (stated earlier) is that this is just Erfworld being strict in the wording when he queries his bracer. :D
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby ManaCaster » Mon May 20, 2013 1:58 am

name lips wrote:But Charlie is a Carnymancer, and can break the rules. He can defy the regular order of things. For a moment, a split second, his power can overwhelm the power of Fate, allowing Parson to see the true answer -- the answer only Charlie wants him to see -- the truth.

But with all his power, even Charlie can't give Parson more than a split second of Truth. Fate quickly reasserts itself, gains control over the bracer, and displays the lie. The lie that will make Parson do what it wants, and not what Charlie wants.

Parson has figured it out. He said it "two railroading GMs." Charlie wants to control him. Fate wants to control him. At the moment, it looks like Fate is winning. Parson is unconscious, Stanley changes the capital, Sizemore comes through and puts out the inferno, Parson lives.

But one very, very important thing has happened. Parson now knows he can't trust the bracer. He already realized he didn't need the sword -- he needs to ditch the bracer too. It's just one more thing controlling him.

I pretty much agree with the above explanation. But why ditch the bracer? Even as a tool of Fate, it's still pretty useful, and I doubt it's even close to the only thing that Fate can force to lie to him. He just needs to stop trusting it all the time. In fact, I suspect Charlie's particular gambit here technically fit right into Fate's plans. It was forced to go so heavy handed, that it was exposed. Thus, Parson will have the hints he needs to understand and beat Fate in the future, just like what Parson himself planned for his players.

Lilwik wrote:
ManaCaster wrote:Erfworld is based on gaming. The closest parallel to Fate is a railroading GM, so it would make a lot of sense if Fate is a force that has to enforce itself, rather than just being a recognition of inevitability.


I haven't seen any evidence for a GM of any sort, and Fate certainly doesn't seem much like a GM to me.

Parson himself said that he was getting railroaded by two GMs. The Titans, and to a far lesser extent Charlie, are the GMs, and Erfworld is their super advanced puppet show. That's the in story reason for why Erfworld plays out like a coherent narrative rather than just a bunch of random tactics and warfare. In fact, it is said straight out that the Titans puppeteer Erfworld with Fate as the strings right here: http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/ ... -02-27.png
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby ManaCaster » Mon May 20, 2013 2:08 am

LordAcme wrote:
ManaCaster wrote:And if he were to do so, why would he pick Parson, when he could have anyone matching just about any possibility? He's already tried to kill Parson, so that'd make things kinda awkward. If he's going to go shopping, he may as well pick someone better suited to his needs.


Because Charlie'd be preventing the MK cabal from getting Parson back themselves. As long as he's alive, he's a (potential) piece in any Erfworld game. His only way out of that is to be an Erfworld player instead, and that ain't happening in Milwaukee (or whereever he's from, I forget).

This fits Charlie's MO perfectly, actually. Kill Parson or return him home, where he can be immediately summoned again by Charlie. Either Charlie becomes the strongest side in Erfworld because Parson's dead, or he becomes even stronger because Parson's serving him. Win - WIN.

Taking Parson for himself would not stop the conspiracy from just summoning a different guy. It wouldn't even stop them from getting Parson. They could just summon a Parson from an alternate universe. So why summon Parson when he could summon someone he isn't on bad terms with?
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Infidel » Mon May 20, 2013 2:13 am

The overly literal interpretation of "now" definitely seems the most elegant answer. It seems Parson's speculation is just confusing people. If he had cast the scroll "then" instead of requesting confirmation repeatedly, he would have successfully cast it. Actually, if he weren't panicking he probably have realized the bracer was being overly literal, because I have a hard time believing it hasn't been overly literal in several of his past sessions.

I'm not saying there aren't two GM's railroading him, but if there are, then this is a case of Inspector Gadget coming to the right conclusion for the wrong reason.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Lilwik » Mon May 20, 2013 2:45 am

ManaCaster wrote:Parson himself said that he was getting railroaded by two GMs. The Titans, and to a far lesser extent Charlie, are the GMs, and Erfworld is their super advanced puppet show. That's the in story reason for why Erfworld plays out like a coherent narrative rather than just a bunch of random tactics and warfare. In fact, it is said straight out that the Titans puppeteer Erfworld with Fate as the strings right here: http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/ ... -02-27.png

Parson says many things like that and he doesn't always mean them literally. He's almost certainly using GMs as an analogy for his current situation, and on top of that he's the last person who we should be trusting for deep insights into the nature of Erfworld. I don't trust that page you site either, since that is Slately's thoughts about the nature of the Titans and it is well established that no one really knows anything about the Titans. Royals are naturally prone to being overconfident and opinionated, which makes them especially unsuited to gaining wisdom, and Slately is far from an exception to that.

Unless the Titans come down and do something directly in the story or Fate somehow takes clear and decisive action to enforce its plan, we should assume that Erfworld is mostly like the our world, except where it isn't. Things just happen. There's no GM.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby ManaCaster » Mon May 20, 2013 3:01 am

Lilwik wrote:
ManaCaster wrote:Parson himself said that he was getting railroaded by two GMs. The Titans, and to a far lesser extent Charlie, are the GMs, and Erfworld is their super advanced puppet show. That's the in story reason for why Erfworld plays out like a coherent narrative rather than just a bunch of random tactics and warfare. In fact, it is said straight out that the Titans puppeteer Erfworld with Fate as the strings right here: http://www.erfworld.com/book-2-archive/ ... -02-27.png

Parson says many things like that and he doesn't always mean them literally. He's almost certainly using GMs as an analogy for his current situation, and on top of that he's the last person who we should be trusting for deep insights into the nature of Erfworld. I don't trust that page you site either, since that is Slately's thoughts about the nature of the Titans and it is well established that no one really knows anything about the Titans. Royals are naturally prone to being overconfident and opinionated, which makes them especially unsuited to gaining wisdom, and Slately is far from an exception to that.

Unless the Titans come down and do something directly in the story or Fate somehow takes clear and decisive action to enforce its plan, we should assume that Erfworld is mostly like the our world, except where it isn't. Things just happen. There's no GM.

So... as far as Fate's concerned, we should just disregard everything the characters of the story say, as well as all of the impossible coincidences they attribute to it, and come to our own conclusions, then?
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Lipkin » Mon May 20, 2013 3:14 am

Predictamancy predicts outcomes. When coupled with a luckamancer, these outcomes can be altered, unless the outcome is fated to occur, at which point it can only be put off.

A carneymancer makes an exchange. Unlike with luckamancy where the bad luck that comes from directing the good lands randomly, it seems Carneymancy gets some choice in the cost. Seems like a Carneymancer may be able to cheat fate by getting more from the bargain that he makes, but I don't think it can change fate entirely. Doesn't mean they won't try though.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Doctor Foreman » Mon May 20, 2013 3:34 am

Glome wrote:When it happened a lot of people thought Janis was lying to protect Parson, which never made sense to me but whatever, it's been debunked now.


Parson being a caster doesn't mean Janis wasn't lying, though I'll admit that learning Parson wasn't the first summoned warlord makes it more likely that she would know if he was a caster or not.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Lilwik » Mon May 20, 2013 4:27 am

ManaCaster wrote:So... as far as Fate's concerned, we should just disregard everything the characters of the story say, as well as all of the impossible coincidences they attribute to it, and come to our own conclusions, then?

Not exactly. Yes, we should disregard everything that the characters say because they are all unreliable, or at least we haven't gotten anything really definitive yet. But we shouldn't simply choose our own conclusions. We should assume Erfworld is Like Reality Unless Noted. We know that there are people who can make guaranteed predictions about the future, and that's more than enough to explain an enormous amount of so-called "impossible coincidences". It shouldn't be a surprise when things happen to work out the way they were predicted; that's not luck and we don't need to invent an invisible magical force to explain it.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Lipkin » Mon May 20, 2013 8:01 am

Parson described the game he was designing as unwinnable. He was going to continue throwing up roadblocks in the face of his players until they pulled something that managed to surprise him. They would need to come up with an exploit, a way of breaking the game, to win. I think Erf, or Fate, is going to do the same thing to Parson. Fate has a plan for Parson. This has been predicted.

Say Fate is the GM, Parson is the player that likes out thinking the GM and beating him at his own game, and Charlie is the player that wants to spite the GM by ruining the game, because he thinks the game is unfair. The GM keeps throwing obstacles in Parson's way, and Parson needs to come up with ways to get past them. That's the part they both enjoy.

Eventually, Parson gets into a difficult position. In an effort to mess things up, Charlie convinces Parson that Parson's position is unwinnable, and tries to talk him into rage quitting. The GM doesn't want the game to end before the ending he intends, so he makes a saving throw, and railroads Parson away from defeat.

Fate wants Parson to keep playing, and it doesn't want Charlie to ruin the game. Fate wins by Parson continuing the path it has laid out for him. Charlie wins by taking control of the game and ruining the fun. Parson wins by overcoming everything Fate throws at him and reaching the conclusion of the story.

The bracer is like the GM telling Parson what he needs to roll, and then letting him decide if he wants to try anyway. It coming up 0 is the GM telling him no, I'm not going to let you do that. If Parson were playing a RPG and wanted to hang himself, that would be a pretty simple action. Say, 3 or better on a d20. The GM can tell him to roll, and then ignore the result because Parson is being lame and he's not going to let him kill himself, regardless of how easy it should be. If Parson ignores the GM's warning, and try to hang himself, the GM makes the rope break, or has an NPC rush in at the last moment to cut him down. Parson ignored the GM's warning that he didn't have a chance to cast the scroll, and so the GM railroaded him away from rage quitting.


So yeah, Fate wants Parson to keep playing, and to overcome everything it puts in his way. The more Parson does to change the game, the more interesting it is, and the better the game will be in the future. The only problem is Charlie is rebelling against the railroading, and wants to seize control away from the GM.

It would be cool if he end game was that everyone ends up with free will, and Erf World becomes a rpg like D&D instead of a turn based strategy game like Mage Knight or Heroclix.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Kreistor » Mon May 20, 2013 8:25 am

drachefly wrote:If it was foolamancy, and the foolamancer was quarter-way competent, he simply wouldn't see the 98% because he would see the 0.000 or a blank projected in front of the screen. Either way, no nonzero number would appear.


Warlords have a chance to overcome Foolamancy. Parson did.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby erianaiel » Mon May 20, 2013 8:38 am

The question that needs answering first is: what exactly is carnymancy.

We know that it has something to do with 'cheating' and that the other casters do not trust carnymancers too much.
The name suggests carnivals and the people who run scams like the shell games.

Still, what exactly does it do? It is not making you see what isn't really there because that is the province of foolamancy. It isn't changing the dice rolls either because that is luckamancy. So ... what is it?
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Lipkin » Mon May 20, 2013 8:55 am

erianaiel wrote:The question that needs answering first is: what exactly is carnymancy.

We know that it has something to do with 'cheating' and that the other casters do not trust carnymancers too much.
The name suggests carnivals and the people who run scams like the shell games.

Still, what exactly does it do? It is not making you see what isn't really there because that is the province of foolamancy. It isn't changing the dice rolls either because that is luckamancy. So ... what is it?

If I had to guess, Carnymancy is the magic of rule breaking. Foolmancy tricks you into thinking things are not as they are. Luckamancy alters the probability of things to occur. Carnymancy lets you change how things work. Death, Turns, Thinkograms. Seems like Carnymancy changes the mechanics of Erf. Literally rigging the game of Erfworld.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Kreistor » Mon May 20, 2013 9:26 am

bladestorm wrote:Several additional factors
1) Jack is not dead


As I said.

2) Jack is somehow immune to the inferno that is steadily croaking more and more units


Neither is Parson dead. Inferno is not instantaneous. No additional factor added.

3) Jack is within visual and hearing distance so that he can know exactly when Parson is touching the scroll and asking for the calculation


Jack's corpse is demonstrably in the same room. No additional factor added.

4) Jack knows what the scroll will do


Sizemore identified the spell type by sight, not content, and called it "bad news." Jack can do the same. No additional info added.

5) It is only Parson's perception of the bracer's numbers that have changed, not the Numbers themselves


Changes to the senses are Foolamancy.

Change the numbers themselves would be something else. Wierdomancy, maybe? It changes things, so maybe.

Anyway, point is, it is not additional info. We know the numbers changed. It is not additional info to solve the problem with one of the known available options that can do so,

6) Either Jack can fool Stanley's Ruler senses, or GK lost some other caster


True. Forgot he listed that. Add 1. I'm now at 2.

7) Jack was lying about being out of juice.


Known liar. (Foolamancer, remember? They lie to your senses just for fun!) Not additional info.

8) Occam's razor also indicates that if you shave away the additional factors (thus the razor part), the hypothesis still holds.


That's not even possible. The whole point to Occam's Razor is that it limits additional elements required to solve the question. Once you're at the minimum, shaving away more leaves you with insufficient information to solve the problem. The Razor shaves away added elements, until you reach the minimum necessary to answer the question.

9) We just completely ignore the huge amount of work about Fate, Predictamancy, and Numbers lining up, where Fate will adjust Numbers.


Have you not noticed that the view of the world of each type of caster is inconsistent with the other casters? And did you overlook that Sizemore is not able to make Master-class because he hasn't had a breakthrough on his understanding yet?

The descriptions of how their schools work are not definitive about the universe, the way science is. It's only how their minds perceive the universe to create their effects.

And they can be wrong. Science is, right now, wrong about everything. And we know it.

I'll continue with the example of Science. The ancient Greek taught that the world was surrounded by crystal spheres. For over 2000 years, this was the prevailing opinion of Western Physics. They were, of course, wrong.

Newton demonstrated that planets did not move in circles. Our Universe became Newtonian -- causal and predictable. For a moving body, E = mvv/2. We solved it! We're done!

Along comes Einstein and Relativity. Newton is wrong. E = mcc(1-1/(1-vv/cc)).

And now, we look for the next step, because Einstein is wrong. We look a branes and Dark Matter, Dark Energy and quantum mechanics.

Point is, just because some caster spouts his theory of how the world works, that doesn't mean that's how the world works: it's not necessarily even how the world works for other schools of Casters. We can't even tell if it's true for anyone except that lone individual that is speaking, because we know that perception of how the world works evolves at the Master-class achievement.

So, no, I'm not ignoring it. I'm discounting it as non-factual and inconsistent. All your work is, to me, completely useless, since it can be inconsistent.

It's magic. It doesn't have to be consistent.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby drachefly » Mon May 20, 2013 10:36 am

name lips wrote:But one very, very important thing has happened. Parson now knows he can't trust the bracer. He already realized he didn't need the sword -- he needs to ditch the bracer too. It's just one more thing controlling him.


yes. This update is the first one that's made me at all nervous about my bet that he would not ditch his bracer during book 2.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby themysticalone » Mon May 20, 2013 10:42 am

ManaCaster wrote:Then why would doing it consecutively result in two different answers at the same time?


The refresh rate of the bracer's screen, coupled with the length of time to display and show the calculations, allowed his eyes to be able to see what other numbers were flickering in and out. Like how your monitor is probably refreshing the screen at a 60Hz rate.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby bladestorm » Mon May 20, 2013 10:55 am

Kreistor wrote:
bladestorm wrote:Several additional factors
1) Jack is not dead


As I said.

2) Jack is somehow immune to the inferno that is steadily croaking more and more units


Neither is Parson dead. Inferno is not instantaneous. No additional factor added.

Parson was being protected by Antium and company. Antium knows Jack to be dead upstairs, so he's not protecting a corpse.
3) Jack is within visual and hearing distance so that he can know exactly when Parson is touching the scroll and asking for the calculation

Jack's corpse is demonstrably in the same room. No additional factor added.

No it's not. Jack's body is upstairs where he croaked. Parson and company left there and went down to the portal room. Antium even remarked about whether they had a plan or were just retreating further.
4) Jack knows what the scroll will do

Sizemore identified the spell type by sight, not content, and called it "bad news." Jack can do the same. No additional info added.

Try using some context. Sizemore and Isaac were explicitly shown the scroll to identify it. The scroll was not explicitly shown to Jack, therefor it cannot be taken as a given that Jack was shown the scroll. That would be an assumption, which means there is additional considerations to your theory.
5) It is only Parson's perception of the bracer's numbers that have changed, not the Numbers themselves

Changes to the senses are Foolamancy.

Change the numbers themselves would be something else. Wierdomancy, maybe? It changes things, so maybe.

Anyway, point is, it is not additional info. We know the numbers changed. It is not additional info to solve the problem with one of the known available options that can do so,

This goes against what you were arguing to begin with. Did the Numbers change, or did Parson's perception of the Numbers change? It has to be the latter for your theory to even be considered applicable.
6) Either Jack can fool Stanley's Ruler senses, or GK lost some other caster

True. Forgot he listed that. Add 1. I'm now at 2.

Going along with that, who would the other caster be? he could be referring to Misty, but Stanley was responsible for her death. Then again, it would not be out of character for Stanley to pin that on Parson anyway. It could be Maggie, and that would explain why she isn't answering his calls, but then why would he try to thinkagram her, unless he has no idea which caster was lost. So maybe Sizemore or Wanda. Or maybe this theory is just wrong and it was Jack who croaked.
7) Jack was lying about being out of juice.

Known liar. (Foolamancer, remember? They lie to your senses just for fun!) Not additional info.

8) Occam's razor also indicates that if you shave away the additional factors (thus the razor part), the hypothesis still holds.


That's not even possible. The whole point to Occam's Razor is that it limits additional elements required to solve the question. Once you're at the minimum, shaving away more leaves you with insufficient information to solve the problem. The Razor shaves away added elements, until you reach the minimum necessary to answer the question.

9) We just completely ignore the huge amount of work about Fate, Predictamancy, and Numbers lining up, where Fate will adjust Numbers.


Have you not noticed that the view of the world of each type of caster is inconsistent with the other casters? And did you overlook that Sizemore is not able to make Master-class because he hasn't had a breakthrough on his understanding yet?

The descriptions of how their schools work are not definitive about the universe, the way science is. It's only how their minds perceive the universe to create their effects.

All your work is, to me, completely useless, since it can be inconsistent.

Just providing your theory the same treatment you provided other theories that were offered. Except I didn't use caps to tell you how badly your theory sucked.

Basically, this hypothesis depends heavily on two additional statements being true. Jack is still alive, and Stanley was not referring to Jack when he spoke of losing a caster. Both are huge factors, and indicators that this may not be the applicable answer to the scenario if why the Numbers switched like they did.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby walpurgisborn » Mon May 20, 2013 10:56 am

mroozee wrote:I'm pretty sure the bracer is just being very strict with the words "now" and "the/this". The reasoning would be that "now" and "this" fix a point in time which passes and then can't be recaptured or (perhaps more likely) the Carnymancy scroll is ever-shifting... it is always THE Carnymancy spell but only THIS Carnymancy spell for an instant. Rob even goes so far as to italicize here and now at one point to give us a clue!




While I'm fairly positive Rob has read Heraclitus, I seriously doubt the brackets have.
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Re: Book 2 – Text Updates 059

Postby Fjord » Mon May 20, 2013 11:10 am

Kreistor wrote:Sorry, Epic Fail. HUGE Epic Fail, actually.


Incorrect. We know that fate is an active participant in the world, and we know that Parson is fated to stay in Erfworld. (From book 0 ; from text updates)
Every single one of your 6 "assumptions" is not only putting words in my mouth, but also ludicrious.
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