Book 2 – Page 112

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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby Lilwik » Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:04 am

Lipkin wrote:Barbarians wouldn't have the intel to know that Wanda's side is so powerful. If they find an under-protected city, they are going to attack it.
When you have access to units that require no upkeep, there's no reason to ever have any under-protected cities. You can fill all your cities with the most powerful units at no cost.

Lipkin wrote:Popped units to replace the decrypted have the potential to turn,
Decrypted units can also turn, except that there would be no other sides to turn to and it would be suicidal to try to start a new side when Gobwin Knob rules the world.

Lipkin wrote:Time in which a foothold could be built.
If you want to stage an elaborate suicide there are bound to be better ways than going to all the effort of building a foothold against the side that rules every other city in the Erfworld. It lacks good presentation since it seems like total foolishness, and that's not how most units would want to be remembered.

Lipkin wrote:Wanda's gonna have no interest in hiring barbarians if she can croak them instead.
That might be right, but it's hard to be sure. Gobwin Knob has an enormous flow of shmuckers since they started using units that require no upkeep. It could get to a point where they are looking for excuses to spend shmuckers.

Lipkin wrote:As for casters, think of what 5 casters in a tower does for the defenses. Now imagine it was 20. Or 30. Or a hundred.
Parson would probably want to avoid attacking by air.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby Vreejack » Sun Jul 14, 2013 9:59 am

Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:No, I mean because no one would be willing to pay him if they thought he would eventually join in anyway when things got bad enough.
The fact that he would join in eventually seems like small comfort if he won't help you now and therefore your side will lose whatever battle you are fighting, probably costing you a major city and an important warlord. It would be even less comfort if losing the battle will be the end of your side. When it comes to a choice between giving your shmuckers to Charlie or letting your enemy claim them from your conquered city, why would anyone choose to let the enemy have them?
I think Lipkin must be referring to the war against GK. He has a point, in that if Charlie is already defending everyone from GK then they will be less likely to want to pay him for it. I cannot help notice that he is being extremely cagey about his inolvement in this war.

Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:If anything, the mechanics of Erf itself will stop Wanda from taking over Erf that way.
What mechanics do you mean? That seems highly unlikely without detailed explanation.
Lipkin is referring to the efficiency problem. A side's efficiency decreases as it grows. We know this because without a specific mechanic a side's efficiency should increase as it grows. Consider that a side really needs only to defend its borders. As it grows more and more cities will be far from the borders and will not need a large garrison, so a greater and greater fraction of a side's resources can be assigned to the front. A larger side should find it easier to concentrate its forces to wipe out opponents, but something in Erf makes this difficult. We do not yet actually know the details, but it has been alluded to a few times, and if this mystery mechanic did not exist Erf would have been completely conquered long ago.

Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:and even if she did, new units would continue to pop.
Units don't have to pop in cities that Gobwin Knob controls. There will always be barbarians, but when your side has unlimited resources I doubt that the barbarians will pose any real threat.
There are always production resources available in a city, and it appears that if you do not use them they will be wasted. Parson once considered using that production to produce units which could then be converted into food.

Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:These new units would require upkeep, which would be unable to be met, because there are no sides to fight to make smuckers.
Cities produce shmuckers, so if Gobwin Knob rules all the city sites in Erfworld it would have more shmuckers than any side in all history.
Pop dwagon. Convert dwagon to food. Problem solved.

Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:And it would never get to that point, because eventually it becomes Erf's first Great War, and every side on Erf becomes involved. GK is a super power, but it's not strong enough to stand up to every other side.
It's taking the other sides a long time to realize the implications what is happening, and the longer it takes, the weaker they will be when they eventually unite to fight the ultimate threat. It's hard to be sure when that will be and how huge Gobwin Knob's advantage will have become by the time it happens. Plus, Gobwin Knob has Parson. It seems right now Charlie is the only one who realizes the danger of that situation.
Also, it seems that large alliances suffer from the same problem as large sides. Or so Ansom's comment about the difficulty of being in the large RCC I in book one seems to imply.

Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:On top of that, it's a keystone army, and can be stopped with a single assassination.
That's also going to get harder the longer they wait.
Who is the target? Charlie seems to think that Parson is much more dangerous than Wanda. He doesn't address Wanda; he doesn't mention her. He doesn't seem to have given Wanda a moment's thought.
So...Watashi wa mizugorō ga sukina koto o kiita, neh?
A Prediction is what would have happened had there been no Prediction. What is scary is that they are also what will happen in spite of the Prediction.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby Lipkin » Sun Jul 14, 2013 12:19 pm

Without Parson, Wanda would have been croaked by Charlie's plan. Charlie may not see her as a threat because he thinks he can remove her at any time. All it takes to stop Wanda's sweeping horde is to croak her, but Charlie is only interested in saving himself from Parson.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby davidj » Sun Jul 14, 2013 12:39 pm

Parson may have a much simpler plan: just change the capital back, carry the bodies through the portal, and then Decrypt. Hm. If Stanley can change the capital back without being in the current capital, Jetstone.

This avoids the uncertainty about whether non-caster units can go through other sides' portals from the MK. Let me emphasize that: We really don't know if attacks from the MK are possible. And it retrieves GK's units from Jetstone - a city that GK may be unable to hold.

Alternately, Stanley could change the capital to some other GK city, for example near wherever Jillian ends her turn - allowing a counterattack.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby 0beron » Sun Jul 14, 2013 12:49 pm

davidj wrote:If Stanley can change the capital back without being in the current capital, Jetstone.
Alternately, Stanley could change the capital to some other GK city, for example near wherever Jillian ends her turn - allowing a counterattack.

Two things wrong with this:
  • We know for sure that the ruler has to sit on the "throne", which is located in whatever the current capital is.
  • The Capital can't just be any random city, they have to be special sites. Jillian was attacking an ordinary city, which I believe was formerly Jetstone territory before GK took it, which means the nearest capital site would be a Jetstone city, or FAQ.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby Lilwik » Sun Jul 14, 2013 1:18 pm

0beron wrote:We know for sure that the ruler has to sit on the "throne", which is located in whatever the current capital is.
That might be true, but we don't actually know it. It's possible that a side with multiple capital sites also has multiple thrones. The chair that Stanley was sitting on when he changed the capital probably didn't unpop out from under him, and if the chair is still there then it may still be a functioning throne even though it's not in the capital.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby 0beron » Sun Jul 14, 2013 1:30 pm

If any ol' throne would do the trick, then they wouldn't have bothered rushing the throne room. They would have evacuated Trem and/or Fakely, and had him fly directly to Jetstone to do it from there, so they wouldn't be feeding GK tons of new bodies. The fact that they were so intent on getting to THAT throne tells you it was necessary.
Also consider it from a gaming common sense perspective. Why would something that's not in a real capital have any power? And moreover it would be a cheap mechanic then without any risk or limits, which is un-balanced and therefor unlikely.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby Lipkin » Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:29 pm

Stanley's inner thoughts stated he'd have to travel to Spacerock to change the capitol back, and that it would be dificult to do because they had extended so far to reach it.

http://www.erfworld.com/page/7/
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby Dante » Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:54 pm

0beron wrote:If any ol' throne would do the trick, then they wouldn't have bothered rushing the throne room. They would have evacuated Trem and/or Fakely, and had him fly directly to Jetstone to do it from there, so they wouldn't be feeding GK tons of new bodies. The fact that they were so intent on getting to THAT throne tells you it was necessary.

They didn't have that kind of time. Jetstone is presumably more than a turn's flight from Spacerock, so what you're suggesting is that Tramennis would claim the site of Jetstone as a Barbarian, because either way Fakely would have expired by then. Same thing would have happened had they evacuated without first changing the capital, because GK would have claimed Spacerock and without an active capital the side would end. So there's no real indication that it absolutely had to be Spacerock's throne.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Sun Jul 14, 2013 7:23 pm

Dante wrote:
0beron wrote:If any ol' throne would do the trick, then they wouldn't have bothered rushing the throne room. They would have evacuated Trem and/or Fakely, and had him fly directly to Jetstone to do it from there, so they wouldn't be feeding GK tons of new bodies. The fact that they were so intent on getting to THAT throne tells you it was necessary.

They didn't have that kind of time. Jetstone is presumably more than a turn's flight from Spacerock, so what you're suggesting is that Tramennis would claim the site of Jetstone as a Barbarian, because either way Fakely would have expired by then. Same thing would have happened had they evacuated without first changing the capital, because GK would have claimed Spacerock and without an active capital the side would end. So there's no real indication that it absolutely had to be Spacerock's throne.

Actually, we don't really know what happens when a side's capital is taken/lost. It might make the side go barbarian, but we aren't entirely sure. It didn't really seem to come up in planning until the plan was for Teamennis to become the new ruler, instead of Slately. When Slately was going to stay king, they just wanted him out of the city with no expressed concern about changing the capital first. Could have been that they were going to hit the throne room on the way before it became a big issue though.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby 0beron » Sun Jul 14, 2013 9:08 pm

Dante wrote:
0beron wrote:If any ol' throne would do the trick, then they wouldn't have bothered rushing the throne room. They would have evacuated Trem and/or Fakely, and had him fly directly to Jetstone to do it from there.
They didn't have that kind of time. Jetstone is presumably more than a turn's flight from Spacerock.

The "presumably" is your problem. Trem was going to be able to fly there directly, thats why he didn't simply travel with the column. But in either event, Lipkin has found the proof.
Lipkin wrote:Stanley's inner thoughts stated he'd have to travel to Spacerock to change the capitol back, and that it would be difficult to do because they had extended so far to reach it.
http://www.erfworld.com/page/7/
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby davidj » Sun Jul 14, 2013 11:41 pm

Lipkin wrote:Stanley's inner thoughts stated he'd have to travel to Spacerock to change the capitol back, and that it would be dificult to do because they had extended so far to reach it.

http://www.erfworld.com/page/7/


OK, thanks. That neatly eliminates my theory. (They can't wait for GK's turn tomorrow and fly Stanley to Spacerock because the bodies will un-pop if not decrypted.)

We haven't seen Parson checking to see if decrypted units can leave the MK or attack other sides through their portals (that I recall). Seems to me Parson would not be implementing a plan if he didn't know that the rules allowed it. That seems to leave some action within the MK as the most likely alternative.

BTW, Wanda's comment "I know...I've known forever" about decrypting Jack....made me wonder if she'd once received a Prediction of Jack being decrypted by her. That might fit with her earlier request to croak and decrypt him, which made no strategic sense. Or has that been pointed out already?
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby ManaCaster » Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:46 am

davidj wrote:BTW, Wanda's comment "I know...I've known forever" about decrypting Jack....made me wonder if she'd once received a Prediction of Jack being decrypted by her.

Yes, this being a reference to some prophecy has been speculated on. Yes, I'd say it's either that, or it has to do with their complicated game involving each other and Jillian. Maybe Wanda's finally given up on Jillian and wants to pursue a new hobby.

davidj wrote:That might fit with her earlier request to croak and decrypt him, which made no strategic sense. Or has that been pointed out already?

That doesn't have to make strategic sense and it doesn't need to have anything to do with any possible prophecies either. Wanda is very proud of her discipline, and she has been shaped into something ruthless. In Jack's own words, she would have loved to have had a caster puppet to play with: www.erfworld.com/wiki/index.php/LIAB_Text_35
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby Mikalyaran » Mon Jul 15, 2013 8:31 pm

Vreejack wrote:
Lilwik wrote:
Lipkin wrote:If anything, the mechanics of Erf itself will stop Wanda from taking over Erf that way.
What mechanics do you mean? That seems highly unlikely without detailed explanation.
Lipkin is referring to the efficiency problem. A side's efficiency decreases as it grows. We know this because without a specific mechanic a side's efficiency should increase as it grows. Consider that a side really needs only to defend its borders. As it grows more and more cities will be far from the borders and will not need a large garrison, so a greater and greater fraction of a side's resources can be assigned to the front. A larger side should find it easier to concentrate its forces to wipe out opponents, but something in Erf makes this difficult. We do not yet actually know the details, but it has been alluded to a few times, and if this mystery mechanic did not exist Erf would have been completely conquered long ago.


I think this is the problem.

http://www.erfworld.com/summer-update-2 ... ration.png

Diminishing returns from cities means that eventually no city is giving enough schmuckers to pay upkeep for a force to send to the border.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Mon Jul 15, 2013 9:03 pm

Yeah, we don't know the exact numbers involved, but we've known for quite a while that the reason no side has been able to take over the world has been one of economics (making Moneymaners the most powerful casters?). As your number of cities grows, each city gives a smaller % of its full income, eventually possibly resulting in a loss in income by capturing a new city, or an increase so small, that it is negligible. At the same time though, you still need units to defend your cities. That leaves you in a situation like Haffaton, in which most of their cities are virtually undefended, because they cannot afford to keep a standing force there. They would be a prime example of a large side that has shifted all of its troops to the outer cities, and left the inner ones with only token forces. They back this up with the poisoned provisions, but it is still tenuous.

Based on Olive's statement in this update, they only have a few hundred actual troops, the rest being uncroaked or garrison units (most likely those pea shooter plants). Compare this to the few thousand that Jetstone had. Even Jillian with her tiny side found that to be a small number.

As others have said though, Wanda can break this with Decrypted. They have no upkeep, and so schmuckers aren't really a concern for her beyond her own upkeep (in a theoretical side that she alone controlled). This would mean that she could theoretically capture every city -and- leave it with a good sized standing force to prevent counterattacks and popped barbarians. Something in the rules of Erfworld may make the barbarians pop strong enough to take a nearby city or something, but if not, then barbarians would be unlikely to do serious damage, and Wanda could use some Decrypted Dwagons to be just about anywhere in Erf on any given turn, meaning she could replace the losses with the barbarians that were killed. In fact, the longer she held all of Erf, the stronger she would get, because she could (if she really wanted) pop units in every single city she owned, then use a Decrypted Dwagon relay to visit every single city, kill all the popped units, Decrypt them, and continue on. So basically every city in Erf would contain the strength of its full production capacity. Like I said, Erf may fight back with strong barbarians, but they'd have to be amazingly strong to be able to hold out for more than a few turns against the full production capacity of Erfworld. And all that is assuming she could capture every city in Erf first and set up things like the Dwagon relay of course, which is more than a tiny challenge. So, there would be peace on Erf, but everyone would be (un)dead.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby ftl » Mon Jul 15, 2013 10:39 pm

That plan has a major weak point though - wanda herself. For it to work, she has to travel all across her empire every turn.It's not impractical for someone with access to a few casters - maybe a predictamancer, or lookamancer - to set an ambush for her somewhere along the dwagon relay.

Not easy by any means. But it only takes one successful trap to set the whole empire crumbling. Someone with a second arkentool could do it.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby LordAcme » Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:12 pm

davidj wrote:
Lipkin wrote:Stanley's inner thoughts stated he'd have to travel to Spacerock to change the capitol back, and that it would be dificult to do because they had extended so far to reach it.

http://www.erfworld.com/page/7/


OK, thanks. That neatly eliminates my theory. (They can't wait for GK's turn tomorrow and fly Stanley to Spacerock because the bodies will un-pop if not decrypted.)

We haven't seen Parson checking to see if decrypted units can leave the MK or attack other sides through their portals (that I recall). Seems to me Parson would not be implementing a plan if he didn't know that the rules allowed it. That seems to leave some action within the MK as the most likely alternative.

BTW, Wanda's comment "I know...I've known forever" about decrypting Jack....made me wonder if she'd once received a Prediction of Jack being decrypted by her. That might fit with her earlier request to croak and decrypt him, which made no strategic sense. Or has that been pointed out already?


They actually can wait for GK's turn tomorrow. Bodies that have been moved are considered trophies and don't depop (Book 0). They'll decay, but that doesn't appear to be a consideration because of Decryption.

So actually, the best thing that could happen right now for GK is a turn change so Stanley can get a move on.

The second best is for someone else to seize Spacerock right now. Everyone bails to the shelter in the MK, the capitol is taken, and another GK city becomes capitol somehow. (We don't know how yet, but Stanley claiming the throne would be a safe bet, so GK could be returned to being the capitol immediately). Everyone in the shelter pops back through, wipes the floor with the occupying force, claims the city again and everything comes up roses. Little pink ones on skulls, to be exact.

The third best is the same as the second, only instead of abandoning and retaking the city, they abandon and raze it. I'm not sure if doing that would boost their treasury or if it has to be an enemy city, or if it's even possibly to raze your own capitol city though.

The worst option I can see is that Jetstone doesn't end turn, makes an alliance with someone and they attack and claim the city with enough forces to hold it. PG and pals are stuck in the MK without the ability to get back to GK, unless they can use the tunnel ofc.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby davidj » Tue Jul 16, 2013 7:45 pm

LordAcme wrote:The third best is the same as the second, only instead of abandoning and retaking the city, they abandon and raze it.


If they can't hold it, razing is logical - I think you do get cash, since you can only raze a city after taking it. Also you deny it to the enemy. If Stanley can raze it from where he is, they wouldn't have to wait for the turn change. Seems like the turn change option would require them to spend the night in the MK. Time to chat with the Thinkamancers, but also time for hostile casters to think of something.

Re option four, I'm not sure how much move Jetstone has left. If they have more forces that can reach Spacerock, wouldn't they have used them earlier? Re option two, if the GK capitol is switched back, there wouldn't be a portal in Spacerock anymore, so I don't think that's possible. That leaves one and three, I think.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby LordAcme » Tue Jul 16, 2013 8:51 pm

davidj wrote:
LordAcme wrote:The third best is the same as the second, only instead of abandoning and retaking the city, they abandon and raze it.


If they can't hold it, razing is logical - I think you do get cash, since you can only raze a city after taking it. Also you deny it to the enemy. If Stanley can raze it from where he is, they wouldn't have to wait for the turn change. Seems like the turn change option would require them to spend the night in the MK. Time to chat with the Thinkamancers, but also time for hostile casters to think of something.


Yeah, that's not going to work out well methinks.

davidj wrote:Re option four, I'm not sure how much move Jetstone has left. If they have more forces that can reach Spacerock, wouldn't they have used them earlier? Re option two, if the GK capitol is switched back, there wouldn't be a portal in Spacerock anymore, so I don't think that's possible. That leaves one and three, I think.


Well, Jetstone voluntarily abandoned its manyfold natural allies because of cash problems. They are free to sign alliances with any of those - nations? - any time they want, and the new units will get turn before GK iirc.

All Jetstone has to do is offer any of them within 1 turn's move the city to hold or to raze for Schmuckers, and GK just might find itself with a whole new set of problems. They just need to make sure the first rush is a winner to avoid feeding Wanda more Decrypted units.
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Re: Book 2 – Page 112

Postby Taikei no Yuurei » Wed Jul 17, 2013 5:20 am

LordAcme wrote:Well, Jetstone voluntarily abandoned its manyfold natural allies because of cash problems. They are free to sign alliances with any of those - nations? - any time they want, and the new units will get turn before GK iirc.

All Jetstone has to do is offer any of them within 1 turn's move the city to hold or to raze for Schmuckers, and GK just might find itself with a whole new set of problems. They just need to make sure the first rush is a winner to avoid feeding Wanda more Decrypted units.

Forming an alliance wouldn't give anyone move. Units only gain move at the start of their turn. If they form an alliance with Jetstone, they won't get any move till the start of Jetstone's next turn. But, there isn't anything that says one of Jetstone's (old) allies doesn't have their natural turn later in the day, and won't get their move later today anyway.

As for razing Spacerock, we know that Parson could do that on his turn for sure, but we don't know if he can do that off turn or not. I'd guess not, to prevent a side razing a city just before an enemy they know can beat them shows up at their doorstep. We just still have no idea what happens when a capital is lost.
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